William hill St Ledger 2018

del roy

The William Hill-sponsored St Leger is the oldest of the five British flat racing Classics, as well as the longest in trip. Run at Doncaster racecourse and over a distance of 1m6f it’s a race for 3 year-olds only.
This contest is often targeted by horses that ran in that season’s Great Voltigeur, with 6 of the last 16 winners having ran in that York race before winning this, while in recent years with seen 7 winning favourites in the last 16 runnings.
Look out for John Gosden-trained horses as this powerful Newmarket stable has won the race three times in the last 16 years, while top Irish handler – Aidan O’Brien has saddled the winner of the St Leger five times, including last year with Capri. Also note any Godolphin-owned entries as they these famous blue silks have won the final English Classic of the season a staggering six times!



Recent St Leger Winners


2017 – Capri (3/1 fav)
2016 – Harbour Law (22/1)
2015 – Simple Verse (8/1)
2014 – Kingston Hill (9/4 fav)
2013 – Leading Light (7/2 fav)
2012 – Encke (25/1)
2011 – Masked Marvel (15/2)
2010 – Arctic Cosmos (12/1)
2009 – Mastery (14/1)
2008 – Conduit (8/1)
2007 – Lucarno (7/2)
2006 – Sixties Icon (11/8 fav)
2005 – Scorpion (10/11 fav)
2004 – Rule of Law (3/1 jfav)
2003 – Brian Boru (5/4 fav)
2002 – Bollin Eric (7/1)


Key St Leger Trends


15/16 – Had 2 or 3 previous career wins
14/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/16 – Placed favourites
13/16 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
12/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had won a Group race before
12/16 – Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season
11/16 – Had won over at least 1m3f before
10/16 – Had never raced over 1m6f or further before
10/16 – Winning distance of 1 length or more
10/16 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
9/16 – Officially rated 109 to 115
9/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/16 – Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (2 won it)
4/16 – USA-bred winners
4/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/16 – Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won it)
3/16 – Trained by John Gosden
3/16 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
3/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 wins in total)
2/16 – Ridden by William Buick
2/16 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/16 – Winners from stall 1
Godolphin have won the race 6 times
Aidan O’Brien has trained 5 winners of the race
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 15/2


Aidan O'Brien trains near enough 33 per cent of the entries for the final classic of the season, the William Hill St Leger at Doncaster, and it is always extremely tricky trying to pre-empt which of the Ballydoyle horses are going to turn up.

A lot will depend on how the trial races go in the coming weeks but there is one horse that stands out as having the perfect profile for the race and that is the Oaks winner Forever Together.

She is an extremely strong stayer and there is little doubt that she will improve again upped in trip and when she gets some softer ground underfoot.

At Epsom she looked to have a fight on her hooves running towards the final furlong but ended up winning by over four lengths. That came on soft ground and while she ran just as well when caught close home in the Irish Oaks last week, I'm sure she would appreciate the give underfoot that is usually around in September.

Fillies have always had a good record in the Leger and while O'Brien usually finds a colt or two to run in the race, I don't think he has had a filly that ticks all the boxes as much as Forever Together does.

She would be my main choice by quite some way at this stage but there is always the chance that she doesn't go for the race or something goes wrong, so it makes sense to back another one if ante-post betting is your thing.

Kew Gardens is the obvious O'Brien contender but he misses the King George and I wonder whether he might be the best mile-and-a-half colt in the yard now and so the Arc rather than the Leger will be his main end-of-season aim.

Latrobe could improve again on his Irish Derby win but he clearly enjoyed the run of the race and he's no price now, and as much as I like Wells Farhh Go, he's going for the Voltigeur first and that will be a tough test for him back in trip.

He could easily get beaten there and go on to win the Leger but that doesn't make him a great ante-post betting proposition at third favourite at this stage.

On form Dee Ex Bee has a massive chance, as he beat Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior when second to Masar in the Derby. However, he has looked to be hating the job on much faster ground since.

He will definitely stay and he could easily bounce back on soft ground in the Autumn but there is a big question mark against him at the moment.

The Pentagon caught the eye from the rear in the Irish Derby but I'm not certain he will stay the trip, so the other one to back is the lightly raced Raymond Tusk, who couldn't have been more impressive in the Listed Glasgow Stakes at Hamilton recently.

He has something to find with the Classic horses but he's only had four runs in his life and he's got progressively better each time. The further he goes the better he seems to be and he certainly wasn't disgraced when beaten under ten lengths in the Eclipse on what was just his third start.

He was trapped on the rail that day over a trip too short but kept on well in the last couple of furlongs and at Hamilton he showed that the Leger trip is what he wants.

Richard Hannon trained Ventura Storm to be second in the Leger after winning the Glasgow Stakes for the same owners and I'm sure Raymond Tusk is a good bit better than him.

from the racing post.


Thought I would get the ball rolling early....


DELANO ROOSEVELT for me but not backed it yet will wait.

longshotvalue

Huge confidence in The Pentagon in this. He ran on well after being held up in the irish derby, that wasnt run to suit a hold up horse.


Wish he was a bigger price than 14/1, but if he is that nearer the day after declarations ill be partaking

del roy

I will keep him in mind Aidan, thanks.

Mostly Harmless

+1 for The Pentagon here, step up to this trip should see a fair whack of improvement, 14/1 looked fine to me tbh, hopefully Kew Gardens goes elsewhere and will be going off FAV

del roy

Lads
i just put up an article from the post, don't know if I allowed post that on here.


am I ?

Gavin "shels"

del roy wrote: »

Lads
i just put up an article from the post, don't know if I allowed post that on here.


am I ?

Think you are once you give credit to the source

tryfix

I wouldn't share the boards enthusiasm for The Pentagon's chances of winning the race, not until he runs well in a good trial for it anyway. The moment to get on him as a Leger bet would be immediately before he is a definite runner in a serious trial for it. I'd imagine that way you'd be far less likely to be backing a non-runner in the Leger.

It's early days for figuring out who will run in it. Races like the Great Voltigeur at York and last week's Gordon Stakes along with the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket and the Queen's Vase and the King Edward Stakes at Ascot are the kind of races that supply the serious Leger contenders year in year out.

Trainers that target the race and have the firepower are Gosden, O'Brien, Stoute and maybe Joseph O'Brien will crash the party with Latrobe. Also Godolphin are strong this year and they target this race. It could be well worth thinking about why their brilliant Gordon Stakes winner is bypassing the St Leger. Have they an able sub waiting in the wings?


There's a lot of digesting to be done before the shape of the likely result becomes clear. Of O'Brien horse's Kew Gardens has the right profile winning the Gp1 Grand Prix De Paris just as Scorpion had done, he's also won the Gp2 Queen's Vase which was won by Leading Light another one of O'Brien's Leger winners.

kiers47

I had Southern France in mind for this. But it's early days yet.

I'm sick of betting the Pentagon so will be happy to take him on. He hasn't really improved from his 2yo form for me.

elderberry

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/saxon-warrior-out-to-tame-lion-as-he-heads-a-strong-obrien-york-challenge/342546

Kew Gardens confirmed for the Great Voltigeur, will probably be joined by The Pentagon and Flag of Honour

Bangor Billy

The Easterby horse wins it.

Mostly Harmless

Can we correct the spelling of the race name in the thread title please, it's really bothering my OCD tendencies

antietam

aidankkk wrote: »

Huge confidence in The Pentagon in this. He ran on well after being held up in the irish derby, that wasnt run to suit a hold up horse.


Wish he was a bigger price than 14/1, but if he is that nearer the day after declarations ill be partaking

Absolutely,but remember everything I have said [last year]about testing or lack of testing by HRI and the huge testing by BHA with a certain stable.

kiers47

antietam wrote: »

Absolutely,but remember everything I have said [last year]about testing or lack of testing by HRI and the huge testing by BHA with a certain stable.

I'd imagine you'd want to keep your conspiracy theories to yourself and away from boards.ie. I'd say they wouldn't want any lawsuits on their hands.

madmoose

Southern France goes close in this.

ANDREWMUFC

Kew gardens

kiers47

Lah Ti Dar confirmed as a runner now.
Frankie has convinced them. She wins it for me.

hobie21

The Pentagon for me. I have it in a double with Snow Falcon from today so it would be a nice touch.

akelly02

Dee ex bee if he comes back to form , would rattle this lot

kiers47

kiers47 wrote: »

Lah Ti Dar confirmed as a runner now.
Frankie has convinced them. She wins it for me.

I will add to this that she is an absolutely attrocious price.
I was interested in southern France but the run the last day was a big dissapointment and he hasn't budged in price.
Loxley is a horse that I really like also and I'd be interested in him we're he to turn up. Old Person also looks slightly overpriced

longshotvalue

Ive been on about it for a while, but The Pentagon is a huge price here at 33/1 with lads. The 25/1 generally is also great value, I think he has a huge chance

The Mig

Surely Sting will be backing Southern France tomorrow as a mark of respect to his holiday home

The Tetrarch

€200 at 30s Maid Up.
Supplemented for £50,000, her lifetime earnings are £131,970, someone is rolling the dice.
Most of her races were fillies only.

del roy

15.35 Maid Up Maid Up is very progressive and she will need to be again to win this. She does stay and if she grabbed a place, I would be delighted.

A.Balding.

mailburner

how far does lah ti dar win by?

kiers47

I bet Loxley in the end. I like Lah Ti Dar but she is still skinny enough for me I made her a 5/2 shot in my book. I don't like Kew Gardens but I can see why he is where he is in the market.
I also thought Old Person but I'm worried about the extra 2 furlongs for him.
8/1 on Loxley I thought was fair and I made him a 6/1 13/2 shot on my side. So small bit of value there.

mailburner

kiers47 wrote: »

I bet Loxley in the end. I like Lah Ti Dar but she is still skinny enough for me I made her a 5/2 shot in my book. I don't like Keep Gardens but I can see why he is where he is in the market.
I also thought Old Person but I'm worried about the extra 2 furlongs for him.
8/1 on Loxley I thought was fair and I made him a 6/1 13/2 shot on my side. So small bit of value there.

13/5 now on matchbook 9/4 elsewhere

hopefully she'll drift a little more

edit, took 13/5

kiers47

mailburner wrote: »

13/5 now on matchbook 9/4 elsewhere

hopefully she'll drift a little more

I'd want 3/1 tbh before i considered backing her.

kiers47

Too Darn Good

longshotvalue

Obviously went fir pentagon and a tiny ew on zabriski , Ive a few quid at the ready on Betfair in running if nelson doesn't go mad in front he is s very decent 100/1 shot .

tryfix

The Leger and Irish Champion stakes are a bit messy, so I've just had two silly outsider bets at huge prices in both.

Nelson ew @ 100/1 in the Leger because he was my original Leger pick on pedigree at the start of the season and he might just run into a place with the form team O'Brien is in.

Athena at 50/1 in the Champion Stakes because she's better than her last run and not too far off the top fillies.

Francie Barrett

tryfix wrote: »

The Leger and Irish Champion stakes are a bit messy, so I've just had two silly outsider bets at huge prices in both.

Nelson ew @ 100/1 in the Leger because he was my original Leger pick on pedigree at the start of the season and he might just run into a place with the form team O'Brien is in.

Athena at 50/1 in the Champion Stakes because she's better than her last run and not too far off the top fillies.

Athena for me as well, some nice American form being ignored, think conditions here suit it.

votecounts

Kew Gardens

CH3OH

I would love to see Ryan getting a bit excited and have a little smile☺ and i backed him (apologies for aftertiming!)

UrbanFret

Terrible ride from Dettori there. He was so far out of his ground .

TheMilkyPirate

UrbanFret wrote: »

Terrible ride from Dettori there. He was so far out of his ground .

He was a bit far back but it's the horses inexperience that cost her if anything

UrbanFret

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

He was a bit far back but it's the horses inexperience that cost her if anything

All the more reason to have her handy. She eas still rolling at the finish, plenty left Id say.

Johner

Best horse won, I thought Kew Gardens did it nicely. I wouldn't be backing the filly to reverse form.

tryfix

The ITV crew are ridiculous in their fawning over Lah Ti Dar, she lost to a decent stayer. There weren't two exceptional horses fighting out the finish and you can be damn sure that if Kew Gardens had finished as far back in 2nd as LTD did there'd have been no talk about two exceptional horses.

kiers47

The best horse won and I was a critic of Kew gardens prior to the race.
The trip was the undoing of Lah Ti Dar. Thought it was an average enough race tbh.


Watched that race again. Not sure how anyone can think the filly should have won.

tryfix

kiers47 wrote: »

The best horse won and I was a critic of Kew gardens prior to the race.
The trip was the undoing of Lah Ti Dar. Thought it was an average enough race tbh.


Watched that race again. Not sure how anyone can think the filly should have won.

I don't think it was, she was staying on well in 2nd and pulling away from a pack of solid stayers at the line.



My take on her would be that York racecourse produces big margin wins in pattern middle-distance races there that don't translate into equally impressive form when the wide margin winners step up into the really big races elsewhere. She won a listed race there and the hype machine went into overdrive because of her breeding and stable connections. She had been elevated to Arc winner in waiting despite having never contested a Gp1 race in her life.

As far I read the race today she was going best in the last two furlongs but she met a better horse than herself. Take Kew Gardens out and people would have been raving about how easily she won the race. I think she's more of a solid Coronet type rather the Enable type she was hyped as.

It was one of the better Legers of recent times, the time was fast and the field was packed with plenty of OR 110-117 type horses who were well beaten by the winner.

antietam

UrbanFret wrote: »

Terrible ride from Dettori there. He was so far out of his ground .

Absolute crap,2.4f out have at look at the filly never made any progress against the winner.She passed 3m chasers but the third horse is of very very serious interest going forward.Based on breeding HOW could the filly stay, explain.

UrbanFret

antietam wrote: »

Absolute crap,2.4f out have at look at the filly never made any progress against the winner.She passed 3m chasers but the third horse is of very very serious interest going forward.Based on breeding HOW could the filly stay, explain.

Breedings not an exact science though is it? She stays all right and if,and I doubt they ever will, meet again she'll reverse the form no doubt about it.

akelly02

UrbanFret wrote: »

Breedings not an exact science though is it? She stays all right and if,and I doubt they ever will, meet again she'll reverse the form no doubt about it.

To say no doUbt about it is a bit ridiculous

Inion An Ri

The runner-up had her ground to suit, the winner didn't. Kew Gardens is a much better horse on fast ground, the faster the better for him.

longshotvalue

I though the winner was very impressive. Hands and heels all the way, beat a very good horse. Wouldn't mind seeing him in the Arc.

Auroras_encore

Thought la ti dar just couldn't go as quick as the winner during the race, she was doing her best work at the end

The Tetrarch

diomed wrote: »

Kew Gardens 86.70 €157.43 €13,491.67

I knew I backed Kew Gardens in the Derby. I just can't believe the price (85/1).