Anyone use lego as an Investment?

PHG

Hi,

I do a large lego set each Christmas (Tower Bridge last year and the Hippy Van the year before as example).

However, during my latest search for the next set ( the Bugatti possibly) I have seen that lego can be an ok investment if willing to sit and hold. Obviously this is based on demand and supply and may fail. I would consider buying a set every 6 months or so and just sticking it somewhere and wait.

I have no interest in Star Wars but these sets look to have done ok over time as has Disney. Just wondering if anyone here has done anything similar?

I understand that there is no fortune to be made but no harm in adding something to the portfolio I guess and would only be able to put about 600ish into it a year.

Any feedback is appreciated,

PHG

Sleepy

If you can predict which sets will retire soon and which are likely to remain popular with collectors after their run, it can be very lucrative though, tbh, I'd say the days of retail sets appreciating rapidly are slowing down as Lego are keeping popular sets on-sale for longer than they used to.

The right set bought at a yard sale could net you a fortune but, as with most things, you need to know what to look for and most hobbiests would really rather there weren't so many speculators trying to rip off collectors.

Rhyme

Personally, I find it disappointing to hear people talk about Lego as an investment. It's a toy and should be played with. I regularly see photographs of peoples collections on different websites and to see an attic or back room stacked to the ceiling with un-opened Lego sets and think about that persons children or other young family members that could enjoy them.

I work with sick kids so maybe I'm biased.

I took some obscure please around the announcement of the news UCS Millennium Falcon as people were genuinely furious with Lego for re-releasing the set and cutting into their potential profit margin. As if Lego themselves targeted these individuals. I was reading forum posts from people who decided to open their investment and they expressed such joy at being able to build something they had hoarded for almost a decade.

Necronomicon

I think you've missed the boat to be honest, or at the very least you've missed the best days. I've been into this hobby since 2009, and while I never got into it from an investment point of view, I kinda watched from the sidelines as others did (just from being on forums and seeing people talk about it). The sense I get is that the best days of investment are in the past. Two big contributing factors are:

1. LEGO is at peak popularity right now. The release of The LEGO Movie had a big impact in 2014, and when people started coming to the conclusions that you're now coming to, there was a massive influx of people buying as an investment. There was a surge of articles in mainstream publications about "how to make money from LEGO", and "how LEGO is more valuable than gold". Everyone wanted on the gravy train, at the same time ensuring there was plenty of supply of retired sets when they were no longer available.

2. There have been two trends over the last 3-4 years in terms of how LEGO release sets, which Sleepy mentioned above: 1) Big sets are getting re-released, meaning there's a strong likelihood a set you missed out on will become available again with a bit of patience, and 2) Big sets are staying available for purchase for much longer, eroding their potential as investments because there's plenty of supply around (hell, Tower Bridge came out in 2010, so folks have had eight years to pick it up).

Another trend which I think may have an impact is the proliferation of massive sets in general - something like 60% of the biggest ever LEGO sets have come out in the last four or five years (sorry, it's late and I'm feeling too lazy to dig out the actual figure). There are more sets available direct from TLG than I can probably ever own, so from my point of view I'm far less inclined to make a splurge on an aftermarket set with a 200% markup. I was once interested in collecting the two modulars I missed out on (Cafe Corner and Green Grocer) but now I'm falling behind the currently available modulars, and probably won't ever have space for all of them anyway.

Anyway, those are just my 2c as someone who's had a casual interest in the market without ever getting involved. I peruse the Brickset forums, and I've seen many comments from people who are getting out because they feel the best days are behind them.

seraphimvc

It depends on how do you look at it.

If you want 5x or 10x profit, those days are probably gone, but who knows, maybe 10 years later this new UCS MF will have the same fate as the previous UCS. Now, truly doubt that it would go to €8000 (10x), but 2x 3x seems very possible.

However, I have seen alot of people bought in some discounted sets with good potential and resell them later, mainly to cover their cost for their lego hobby. I think it is not too bad if that's the case. Most of the resellers are lego lovers themselves.

L1011

Lego can and increasingly will destroy the inflated value by rereleasing sets or elements. There are few other "investments" where someone hitting go on an injection moulder ruins you

I agree with all Necronomicon said and just wanted to add a few more items.

1. There is a website called brickpicker which advises on which sets make good investments as well as giving guide values. Problem is when everyone invests in the sets they advise they won't be rare so it defeats itself.

2. Brickpicker and the whole Lego investing is largly based on 10179 MF. This did a x10 increase but its been replaced by a better version 75192 which greatly devalues it. Brickpicker was not around when 10179 was in the shops.

3. LEGO sets are bulky and living in Ireland means higher postage charges when you are trying to flog them.

I don't get MISB collectors. They might as well empty the box and give me the contents. I'll give them equal weight of old chewed parts to produce a similar noise when the box is shaken or hugged or whatever it is they do with them.

Theboinkmaster

I think the days of big appreciation is well gone, so no - LEGO is certainly not an investment. There are no more cloud city sets....

Buy it and enjoy it!

drunkmonkey

If you buy it at the right price you can make some good profits. It's not that easy turn it into cash straight away though.

If you were to believe BrickFolio i've made a very decent return.

Purchase price € 5492.49
Current Value € 7401.66

M.Cribben

The 42083 Bugatti has 'great investment' written all over it.

It certainly won't be available for GBP £329.99 when (eventually) retired. Could take 5-10 years to see any decent return though.