Irish Oaks 2018

ANDREWMUFC

Who’s everybody looking at for the Irish Oaks this Saturday?

Magic Wand - 2/1
Sea Of Class - 7/2
Laurens - 5/1
Forever Together - 6/1

11/1 bar

Surely Lauren’s won’t run here? If she does I’d have her as favourite. Hopefully all the big ones above show up

tryfix

I'd like to see the relative shape of the field before trying to pick the winner. For instance I've been a huge fan of Magical Wand but would have an awful lot less faith in her if O'Brien also ran Forever Together in it.

kiers47

Im looking forward to getting a look at Sea Of Class. Ive been really impressed by her in her runs this year.
It is a no bet race for me at the moment and probably will be on the day.

I would be tempted to back her for the Arc @ 50's in the off chance she wins this well. However she is not currently entered and the supplement fee for the Arc is crazy. So she would need to win well to justify that supplement fee. All be it she has the right profile and owners.

tryfix

kiers47 wrote: »

Im looking forward to getting a look at Sea Of Class. Ive been really impressed by her in her runs this year.
It is a no bet race for me at the moment and probably will be on the day.

I would be tempted to back her for the Arc @ 50's in the off chance she wins this well. However she is not currently entered and the supplement fee for the Arc is crazy. So she would need to win well to justify that supplement fee. All be it she has the right profile and owners.

The formline between Magic Wand, Forever Together and Sea Of Class via Princess Yaiza suggests that there's very little between the three with a slight advantage for Sea Of Class, but those were trial races and this will be a race where the winner will have improved 10lbs or more on those trial runs.

Haggis has the stable advantage after flattening Forever Together in the Matron with his Urban Fox, but the extra 2 furlongs of the Oaks should suit Forever Together.

Rather than folllowing the formlines, I think it might be best to consider the previous winners past trends to see if there's a bit of value to be had in the race.

kiers47

tryfix wrote: »

The formline between Magic Wand, Forever Together and Sea Of Class via Princess Yaiza suggests that there's very little between the three with a slight advantage for Sea Of Class, but those were trial races and this will be a race where the winner will have improved 10lbs or more on those trial runs.

Haggis has the stable advantage after flattening Forever Together in the Matron with his Urban Fox, but the extra 2 furlongs of the Oaks should suit Forever Together.

Rather than folllowing the formlines, I think it might be best to consider the previous winners past trends to see if there's a bit of value to be had in the race.

The problem with this race at the moment is there are so many still entered and it could well be a small field so taking a stab at one unless sure they are showing up is probably poor value regardless of price.

I backed Sarrochi at Ascot, she is definitely not a Group 1 filly but she shapes like a filly that is better than what she has shown.
If she rocks up and is a 50/1 + poke i might just back her but tbh at the moment it looks a poor race to be getting involved in before final decs.

convert

Entries available here.

tryfix

Past winners and trends.

2008 Moonstone 2/1f Johnny Murtagh Aidan O'Brien

2nd @25/1 Epsom Oaks ( rpr 114 ), didn't run as a 2yo



2009 Sariska evens fav Jamie Spencer Michael Bell

1st @ 9/4f Epsom Oaks ( rpr 122 ), had one run at 2 when won a 7f maiden



2010 Snow Fairy 7/2 Ryan Moore Ed Dunlop

1st @ 9/1 Epsom Oaks ( rpr 116 ), ran 6 tmes as a 2yo from 6f to 7f with a 3rd in the Gp3 Prestige Stakes being her best form.


2011 Blue Bunting 5/2 Frankie Dettori Mahmood Al Zarooni

4th @ 9/4f Epsom Oaks ( 109 ), won English 1,000 Guineas ( rpr 116 ), won listed 1m race as a 2yo.



2012 Great Heavens 5/4f William Buick John Gosden

1st @ 11/4f Lancashire Oaks Gp2 ( rpr 115 ), one unplaced run over a mile as a 2yo.



2013 Chicquita 9/2 Johnny Murtagh Alain de Royer-Dupré

2nd @ 25/1 to Treve in the French Oaks 1m 2 1/f ( rpr 112 ), ran once as a 2yo over 1m 1f



2014 Bracelet 10/1 Colm O'Donoghue Aidan O'Brien

1st @ 10/1 Ribblesdale Stakes Gp2 ( rpr 107 ), ran twice as a 2yo winning a maiden over 7f.



2015 Covert Love 7/1 Pat Smullen Hugo Palmer

1st @ 3/1 Hoppings Stakes Listed 1m 2f ( rpr 112 ), one unplaced run in 1m all weather maiden as a 2yo.



2016 Seventh Heaven 14/1 Seamie Heffernan Aidan O'Brien

A hampered 6th beaten 33L @ 20/1 Epsom Oaks ( rpr 65 ), won Listed Lingfield Oaks Trial beating subsequent Epsom Oaks 2nd Architecture ( rpr 100 ), 2 runs as a 2yo when best placed effort 4th in a Newmarket maiden.



2017 Enable 2/5f Frankie Dettori John Gosden

1st @ 6/1 Epsom Oaks ( rpr 123 ), impressive winner of Cheshire Oaks ( rpr 111 ), one run and won a 1m all weather maiden as a 2yo.


It takes a classy filly to win this race.

tryfix

convert wrote: »

Entries available here.

1. 8134 Bye Bye Baby (IRE) b f Galileo-Remember When(Danehill Dancer) 16/1

Rated 108 A P O'Brien



2. 31-4 Dramatic Queen (USA) ch f Kitten's Joy-Midnight Music(Dubawi) 33/1

William Haggas



3. 5461 Easter Lily (IRE) ch f Galileo-Chanting(Danehill) 16/1

A P O'Brien



4. -212 Forever Together (IRE) b f Galileo-Green Room(Theatrical) 11/2

A P O'Brien



5. 21-9 Liquid Amber (USA) ch f Kitten's Joy-Pachattack(Pulpit) 16/1

W McCreery



6. 3141 Magic Wand (IRE) b f Galileo-Prudenzia(Dansili) 7/4

A P O'Brien



7. 44-4 Magical (IRE) b f Galileo-Halfway To Heaven(Pivotal) 12/1

A P O'Brien




8. -172 Mary Tudor (IRE) gr f Dawn Approach-Antiquities(Kaldounevees) 25/1

W McCreery



9. 442 Park Bloom (IRE) b f Galileo-Alluring Park(Green Desert) 66/1

J S Bolger



10. 16 Romiyna (IRE) b f Nathaniel-Rose Quartz(Lammtarra) 25/1

D K Weld



11. 211 Sea of Class (IRE) ch f Sea The Stars-Holy Moon(Hernando) 5/2

William Haggas



12. 323- September (IRE) b f Deep Impact-Peeping Fawn(Danehill) 10/1

A P O'Brien



13. 3032 Sizzling (IRE) ch f Galileo-Weekend Strike(Smart Strike) 33/1

A P O'Brien



14. 2215 Tissiak (IRE) b f Fastnet Rock-Belesta(Xaar) 33/1

Joseph Patrick O'Brien


15. -211 Worth Waiting (GB) b f Bated Breath-Salutare(Sadler's Wells) 40/1

David Lanigan


Prices = Paddy Power odds



That's a grand field for the race.

tryfix

1. 8134 Bye Bye Baby (IRE) b f Galileo-Remember When(Danehill Dancer)

A P O'Brien

2. -212 Forever Together (IRE) b f Galileo-Green Room(Theatrical)

A P O'Brien

3. 3141 Magic Wand (IRE) b f Galileo-Prudenzia(Dansili)

A P O'Brien

4. -172 Mary Tudor (IRE) gr f Dawn Approach-Antiquities(Kaldounevees)

W McCreery

5. 16 Romiyna (IRE) b f Nathaniel-Rose Quartz(Lammtarra)

D K Weld

6. 211 Sea of Class (IRE) ch f Sea The Stars-Holy Moon(Hernando)

William Haggas

7. 2215 Tissiak (IRE) b f Fastnet Rock-Belesta(Xaar)

Joseph Patrick O'Brien



It's a shame that the field has been reduced so much, but it was always about the front three who have all stood their ground.


There seems to be huge confidence about Magic Wand, but she has plenty to prove at the price. I've backed Forever Together whose last run over what looked like an inadequate trip wasn't all that bad with Athena the third that day going on to win a grade 1 in America.

Come on Donnacha, do it again.:)

kiers47

Would like to see Sea of Class win it. But I couldn't see myself backing one in this unless the market goes crazy.

Gavin "shels"

The rain going to suit any of these?

longshotvalue

Gavin shels wrote: »

The rain going to suit any of these?

Forever Together turns into the most likely winner if it gets some cut..

Gavin "shels"

No more rain scheduled between now and tomorrow... we did get a lot but I'd say that dried up fairly quickly.

Francie Barrett

Sea Of Class for me, big time.

antietam

IMO Sea of Class has to find plenty to trouble Magic Wand/Forever Together.Sea of Class has only won on flat left handed track and never beyond Listed company so this is a major step up in class on a stiff right handed track. Persian Lion 8/1 in the last has to be a serious player and is seriously over priced.A horse to watch and put in your tracker is Kloud Gate 33/1 Newbury 2.25.20/1 last night so a drifter today but is in top shape and would laugh at these if asked.

mick malones mauser

Kloud Gate second at 33s
Well done

BumperD

Love the Newbury super sprint, going to have a min ew on Casablanco with 6 places 40/1

tinpib

Think ITV could easily leave Francesca Cumani as host, she seems comfortable today, Ed "Guy Smillie" Chamberlain can be a bit of a pain.

ANDREWMUFC

Sea Of grace

Mgoraf

That's a brilliant ride

Francie Barrett

I thought it was a poor ride! Horse lost lengths coming wide but still had the CLAAS to get the jockey out of trouble.

TheMilkyPirate

Great ride and didn't pick up the stick once, She looks all class.

famagusta

Francie Barrett wrote:

I thought it was a poor ride! Horse lost lengths coming wide but still had the CLAAS to get the jockey out of trouble.

That was a great ride, didn't lose lengths anywhere

ANDREWMUFC

Why was the commentator on RTE calling it “Sea Of Grace”

BorneTobyWilde

''two people who kicked the bucket''

that's a nice line to blurt out after a tribute to Laura Barry

Francie Barrett

Personally I hate seeing horses at the Curragh having to come from far outside in. Sea Of Class had so much in hand it wasn't an issue.

Do not care either way, winner alright.

tryfix

tryfix wrote: »

1. 8134 Bye Bye Baby (IRE) b f Galileo-Remember When(Danehill Dancer)

A P O'Brien

2. -212 Forever Together (IRE) b f Galileo-Green Room(Theatrical)

A P O'Brien

3. 3141 Magic Wand (IRE) b f Galileo-Prudenzia(Dansili)

A P O'Brien

4. -172 Mary Tudor (IRE) gr f Dawn Approach-Antiquities(Kaldounevees)

W McCreery

5. 16 Romiyna (IRE) b f Nathaniel-Rose Quartz(Lammtarra)

D K Weld

6. 211 Sea of Class (IRE) ch f Sea The Stars-Holy Moon(Hernando)

William Haggas

7. 2215 Tissiak (IRE) b f Fastnet Rock-Belesta(Xaar)

Joseph Patrick O'Brien



It's a shame that the field has been reduced so much, but it was always about the front three who have all stood their ground.


There seems to be huge confidence about Magic Wand, but she has plenty to prove at the price. I've backed Forever Together whose last run over what looked like an inadequate trip wasn't all that bad with Athena the third that day going on to win a grade 1 in America.

Come on Donnacha, do it again.:)

Ah well... he nearly did it but the Haggis team had his measure and that was that. I was happy enough to think that Forever Together would be value against a hyped Magic Wand and that proved true.

How the hell did Magic Wand end up going off at odds on against an Epsom Oaks winner and an in form classy Haggis runner? To run such a stinker after being so fancied is bizarre, also Ryan didn't exactly ride her to achieve a best placed finish which seems like something that should be clamped down in.

antietam

mick malones mauser wrote: »

Kloud Gate second at 33s
Well done

Not good enough as we backed it last week at 50/1, e/w is not an option.You win or nothing the trainer knows that.We absolutely believe we have the best bumper horse for Cheltenham as good as Montelado,Mullins knows this [has tried buy to him]as Rich Richie wants away from Mullins.

kiers47

Good win from Sea of Grace she was the obvious one for me but the price was scandalous so I had no bet. Good to see her win thiugh

antietam

tryfix wrote: »

Ah well... he nearly did it but the Haggis team had his measure and that was that. I was happy enough to think that Forever Together would be value against a hyped Magic Wand and that proved true.

How the hell did Magic Wand end up going off at odds on against an Epsom Oaks winner and an in form classy Haggis runner? To run such a stinker after being so fancied is bizarre, also Ryan didn't exactly ride her to achieve a best placed finish which seems like something that should be clamped down in.

Five[5] BHA vets were on site to test every horse and they carried out tests over the last month in Irish stables which the seriously infested HRI refused to do.

kiers47

kiers47 wrote: »

Im looking forward to getting a look at Sea Of Class. Ive been really impressed by her in her runs this year.
It is a no bet race for me at the moment and probably will be on the day.

I would be tempted to back her for the Arc @ 50's in the off chance she wins this well. However she is not currently entered and the supplement fee for the Arc is crazy. So she would need to win well to justify that supplement fee. All be it she has the right profile and owners.

Wish I took that 50/1 best price 20/1 now. Ah well she is a nice filly in fairness and there is definitely more to come