Newmarket July Meeting

kiers47

Ill probably stick up a couple of thoughts here over the coming days so said id open up a thread.

Anyone any thoughts today?

The opening race is an interesting one. Victory Salute is a horse that ive seen run a couple of times. He was very tenderly handled on debut and finished 4th behind Southern France.
Im not convinced he is good enough to win this but i didnt think he should be a 20/1 poke. He looks like a horse that is still improving and i wouldnt be surprised if he took a step up again to knick a place. Beggy on board is probably one of the reasons he is that price. I will do a very very small bet each way if the 8 go to post.
The rest of them are much of a muchness. Gosdens horse was pretty unlucky in the King George V but i mean that was a handicap and he was rated 91 and now he is 9/4 to beat horses who've already been contesting group races.Giuseppe Garibaldi is probably the one to beat but think the price is about right.

Advertise is hard to get away from. Think ill skip him at the prices. Another few interesting ones in there also. Looks a nice race.

The third, the handicap is impossible. I thought Buridan won with a fair bit in hand last saturday but Haydock can throw funny results. Strange but i couldnt find a bet here.
No more views really but i thought Emaraaty was probably worth another chance in the mile listed race. But that run in the Jersey was dismal. White Mocha looks an interesting one at a mad price after finishing 2nd in the Craven over C&D behind Masar. All be it beaten 9 lengths.

Maybe Gracious John can just outclass them in the last but will also leave that.

Didnt really look at the races in much detail for today but found them to look interesting enough.

Only had the one bet though today on Victory Salute.

Wont bother with a running total like Ascot as i will probably have less than 5 bets over the 3 days.

kiers47

Victory Salute - Still running like he hasnt a clue what is going on. Green as the first time he ran. If he could get his act together then he'd probably be group 2/3 level alright but you couldnt be backing horses like him forever. Might give him another go next time. At least i got the favorite right.

Thats about all that can be said for it. Will enjoy the racing for the rest of the day.

kiers47

Actually just one other race to add of interesting races of the day. In Dundalk but will add here as i couldnt be bothered opening another thread.

The 5f handicap in Dundalk. 4.50
Alfredo Arcano has a great record around the track in dundalk. Im not quite sure how he is 3/1 and the favorite Dali(who is an absolute pig of a yoke) is 2/1. He beat Dali lto and he is back now on his favored surface.
I thought AA should be favorite if im honest. Thought he was the bet of the day @ 3/1

longshotvalue

Went for a little bit of 15 on Betfair on Sors in that 4:50 . He showed up well last time and should be handicapped to have a shout here.

longshotvalue

kiers47 wrote: »

Actually just one other race to add of interesting races of the day. In Dundalk but will add here as i couldnt be bothered opening another thread.

The 5f handicap in Dundalk. 4.50
Alfredo Arcano has a great record around the track in dundalk. Im not quite sure how he is 3/1 and the favorite Dali(who is an absolute pig of a yoke) is 2/1. He beat Dali lto and he is back now on his favored surface.
I thought AA should be favorite if im honest. Thought he was the bet of the day @ 3/1

Nice winner fought back well.

kiers47

aidankkk wrote: »

Nice winner fought back well.

Yep he did alright.
tbh im surprised that Dali stuck on so well. He has shown the tendency to throw in the towel at times. He has been an absolute rogue of a yoke maybe i underestimated him a bit.

kiers47

Not much time for a write up today.

I have had a couple of bets.
I remember saying in the Ascot thread that i cant get Mark Johnston right and that Main Edition had a chance but had no bet. haha
But ill give her a go here. Thought she was the one to beat and tbh i didnt see any reason why the godolphin filly should be a shorter price than her. 3/1 is very fair.

I also took a chance on Project Bluebook for John Quinn. Its a tough race with Elgin being the one to beat. However i think this lad has a pretty lenient mark of 81 and he can go well fresh. I had a bit of the 12/1 each way

Pretty quite day though again today. Ill go bonkers tomorrow i suspect :pac:

Hoping Alpha Centauri can back up that great performance at Ascot. Would also be good to see Clemmie come back to form.

kiers47

God dammit Mark Johnston. For a man that has an absolute pile of winners i dont seem to back any of them.

longshotvalue

Not my normal type of Bet but i always think Classic form is miles clear of anything else and Could it be love should be a short priced fav in the 3:15. 2/1 seems value. The fav has to improve at least a stone (its not out of the question) , ive had what can be described as an actual bet on CIBL here.And also double up with kilkenny in kk v lim on sunday.

kiers47

I stand by what i said last week and after Ascot. She'd give the colts some go of it with the weight allowance!

longshotvalue

kiers47 wrote: »

I stand by what i said last week and after Ascot. She'd give the colts some go of it with the weight allowance!

They wouldn't stand a chance. I mean i'm speechless for her to lead from the front and hose up like that. On the second viewing she won much easier than i thought live. She's a monster in every way.

antietam

Sands Of Mali 8/1 is very seriously fancied based on friends that have horses with Fahy.

BumperD

Alpha centuri for Sussex? That’s where I would put her

Mgoraf

Kew gardens win the group 1 in France. Looks like a very very solid fav for the ledger in October