What will end the current housing bubble in Ireland?

Sheeps

The banks have 100Billion in mortgage debt in arrears, house prices in Dublin in certain are at a minimum double what the average earner can afford. What will happen next?

Wanderer78

'the great moderation part deux', soft landing, be grand!

People will realise that there is more to Ireland than Dublin.

Conservatory

Rice crispies

Birneybau

Next week apparently

fxotoole

Sheeps wrote: »

The banks have 100Billion in mortgage debt in arrears, house prices in Dublin in certain are at a minimum double what the average earner can afford. What will happen next?

What will happen next is another boardsie will start a thread asking when the bubble will burst

amcalester

Sheeps wrote: »

The banks have 100Billion in mortgage debt in arrears, house prices in Dublin in certain are at a minimum double what the average earner can afford. What will happen next?

The govt will continue with their plan to wipe out all negative equity and arrears by not building houses.

All those who can’t afford and/or find a house are just collateral damage.

10000 homeless versus 100000+ in arrears, more votes to be gained from mortgage holders than the homeless.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

People will realise that there is more to Ireland than Dublin.

???

Ubbquittious

Some outside influence like a big 1800s top-hat wearing investment firm in the states going Belly Up. Followed by Moody's and Standard and Poor having a hissy fit that eventually makes its way to Ireland.

The tech industry could well have a burst too and is on shaky ground in many ways. This could lead to loads of people fleeing Dublin. Loads will probably flock back to Eastern Europe and further afield.

Ubbquittious

Deleted User wrote: »

???

Bere Island for example

kneemos

Read somewhere you can buy a house on minimum wage in Westmeath or some place I can't remember.

fxotoole

kneemos wrote: »

Read somewhere you can buy a house on minimum wage in Westmeath or some place I can't remember.

Good luck finding a job though

Donald Trump

kneemos wrote: »

Read somewhere you can buy a house on minimum wage in Westmeath or some place I can't remember.

Sure look. They bought Manhattan from the American Indians for a few beads.


I'd say you'd get half of Westmeath in return for a bottle of firewater and an oul' nokia 3310 with a crazy frog ringtone to enthrall the local simpletons

MikeyTaylor

Deleted User wrote: »

People will realise that there is more to Ireland than Dublin.

I should know. My dad's from Clare.

touts

A hard Brexit.
I don't think people realise just how ****ed the country will be and the impact it will have on people's day to day lives.

Hector Bellend

We'll have another property crash before that

MikeyTaylor

MikeyTaylor wrote: »

I should know. My dad's from Clare.

And yet, you missed the point. Or maybe you did. I dunno... Your answer was kinda lacking 'stuff'.

Dublin is not Ireland, and there is plenty of space in the rest of the country for development of both housing and infrastructure. This fear of bubbles bursting is simply due to people focusing everything on Dublin and ignoring the rest of the country.

Build up the links with the rest of the country, even to the point of installing a high-speed train system, and the pressure on Dublin will evaporate. Ireland is tiny in terms of land, and frankly, this aversion Irish people have about travelling/commuting is probably down to the shoddy road management, which in turn encourages an expensive/inefficient transit system. Invest in some proper infrastructure in other parts of the country, and companies will have more choice for establishing themselves, than in a city that's logistically a nightmare, and has very little real space for growth (considering the demands for housing rather than apartments).

4068ac1elhodqr

touts wrote: »

A hard Brexit.
I don't think people realise just how ****ed the country will be and the impact it will have on people's day to day lives.

Nevermind the 'brexitous', worse than that is 'taxious-harmonious'.

So by the time corp tax doubles (up the eu average), those in the land of brexit will be in a corporate tax haven of sorts. From 20% (in 2017) heading to just 17% (by 2020), if that trend continues: 12% by 2025.

jaxxx

Start building good quality, safe and affordable apartment towers? And just a general removal of overall fear to high rise building. Laterally room is very limited, vertically much less so!

Ubbquittious

jaxxx wrote: »

Start building good quality, safe and affordable apartment towers? And just a general removal of overall fear to high rise building. Laterally room is very limited, vertically much less so!

Great idea. "Ghost towers" will provide a steady stream of news articles after the next crash. If we start planning them now they might be half finished by the time the next global downturn arrives

doolox

First lesson was in the 60's with Neil Blaney as housing Minister and the French system of building towers which resulted in substandard protection against rain and mold and breaking down lifts and anti social activity in the common areas and no facilities such as shops in walking distance. This failure was knocked down 10 to 15 yrs ago.

Then you had the recent fire in the tower block built to replace the original tower block.

Any time I research apartments I am faced with huge management fees and stories of dodgy sound proofing and dodgy fire-proofing which does not reassure me as a potential investor or home owner.

Many people are afraid of multi occupancy buildings for reasons like this. The buying public will have to find out how it is done in the EU and US and learn the lessons needed to prevent shoddy workmanship, risk of fire, and gouging by management companies and parking touts in many existing developments.Also need to find out how to prevent antisocial activity and bad parking in common areas.

The Irish are not good at this.


Yet.

realitykeeper

Wanderer78 wrote: »

'the great moderation part deux', soft landing, be grand!

Ha! The mother of all depressions will descend like a tidal wave of reality. House prices will return to their great recessionary low en route to the lows they would have fallen to if Enda Kenny, Michael Noonan and the ECB had not interfered. Then, they will fall even further because they did interfere.

Of course, the ECB may ignore the German`s again and launch a new round of QE in response to the next economic implosion, thereby causing a rift that would destroy not only the EU but the Euro currency. If the Euro were to be printed to oblivion, to preserve asset prices, hyperinflation would follow so those with fixed rate mortgages would be on a winner. Interest rates would have to rise very sharply in that scenario because those with Euro bonds would be dumping them and inflation would surge above 2% to 200%+.