USA Triple Crown

diomed

Justify is going for the USA Triple Crown on Saturday.
He is 4/5 favourite for the last leg, the 12f Belmont Stakes.
He comes into the race with impeccable form, 5 wins from 5 starts.

Always with an eye on value, my bet is Free Drop Billy at 60s, coming into the race with a 16th of 20, beaten 41 lengths in the Kentucky Derby.
His sire, Union Rags, won the Belmont in 2012.

Mgoraf

Surely justify gets outstayed over this trip?

3 races in 6 weeks is a real tough task. I see coolmore bought his breeding rights for 60 mil

I'd be looking at maybe hofburg who had a break in between his last run

Francie Barrett

Mgoraf wrote: »

Surely justify gets outstayed over this trip?

3 races in 6 weeks is a real tough task. I see coolmore bought his breeding rights for 60 mil

I'd be looking at maybe hofburg who had a break in between his last run

This is true. His breeding says that he will not stay the mile and a half. Scat Daddy progeny have a really bad record at that sort of trip, however the running tomorrow is likely to be fast, so that may mitigate some of that. However when you consider Justify won running on in sloppy conditions for the Preakness, there definitely is evidence to suggest it can win tomorrow.

With all that said, I think it's well worth taking on considering it's 10/11. The Americans do love to latch onto a winner, so it wouldn't at all surprise me if this gets smashed into on the American pools betting. I can see your reason for having an interest in Hofburg, the last two winners of this race were out of Tapit and Hofburg is the only horse out tomorrow that is out of him, so if we go by breeding, then the odds here for the first two are all wrong.

diomed

I see The Queen has a winner in the last race at Belmont last night, 2 mile turf,, Call To Mind (Galileo - memory by Danehill Dancer), trained by William Haggas.
The Queen knows how to place a horse. :cool:

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

I see The Queen has a winner in the last race at Belmont last night, 2 mile turf,, Call To Mind (Galileo - memory by Danehill Dancer), trained by William Haggas.
The Queen knows how to place a horse. :cool:

Indeed, and Haggis is as shrewd a trainer as you'll get.

He wasn't very impressive last night, given the competition, but his US jockey made sure he got the job done by staying in the first two the whole way around.

It's fascinating to think that this fella is a full brother to the once exciting 2yo Recorder who never made it back to track after his 2yo career. He would have been an exciting Derby prospect and he had plenty of speed on top of the proven stamina of his brother. He'll make an interesting obscure stallion now that he's finally gone to stud.

Slattsy

This yolk surely must have serious stamina doubts.

But I still can't find anything to beat it! Looks a terrible race on paper.

Watching brief.

kiers47

Still a bit gutted for Jeremy Noseda that he lost the Phoenix horses. If he was still running for him would be great to see gronkowski win. No opinion on it really but will give it a watch I suppose.

Mgoraf

He has hacked up doesn't even look like he's had a race

ANDREWMUFC

Unreal

mickmackmcgoo

Great ride from Smith,

Auroras_encore

Doped up horses on greyhound tracks, does anybody even care really

Mgoraf

Auroras_encore wrote: »

Doped up horses on greyhound tracks, does anybody even care really

A scat daddy triple crown winner with breeding rights owned by coolmore. He'll have tonnes of progeny running around Ireland in a few years.

Auroras_encore

Mgoraf wrote: »

A scat daddy triple crown winner with breeding rights owned by coolmore. He'll have tonnes of progeny running around Ireland in a few years.

yes but I mean american races themselves, the only time I actually had any interest was when giants causeway should of won and that's only cause he was a superstar over here

diomed

Auroras_encore wrote: »

Doped up horses on greyhound tracks, does anybody even care really

Good win by Justify.
Nothing to give him a race.

On another website I questioned Deep Impact as a stamina sire as he failed to stay in the Arc and was later disqualified for drugs.
And his wins on firm tracks in Japan were imo not stamina races, although up to 3200 metres (tracks with less than 5 metres elevation change).
Among other things I was called a racist and a banker.
(might be true but I want proof. :pac:)

tryfix

Scat Daddy's premature death was the greatest loss to the breeding industry since Danehill kicked the bucket, and it is a bigger one because Scat Daddy was only starting to get the choice mares sent his way when he died.

Don't think Justify is the one to replace his Scat Daddy.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

Good win by Justify.
Nothing to give him a race.

On another website I questioned Deep Impact as a stamina sire as he failed to stay in the Arc and was later disqualified for drugs.
And his wins on firm tracks in Japan were imo not stamina races, although up to 3200 metres (tracks with less than 5 metres elevation change).
Among other things I was called a racist and a banker.
(might be true but I want proof. :pac:)

Maybe O'Brien should have sent Mendelssohn to the Belmont where he could have had a crack at Justify without all the chaos and hurly-burly he experienced in the Kentucky Derby. Seems like a good tough Epsom Derby place prospect might be as well off by-passing Epsom and heading over for the Belmont in a country where stamina is a dirty word.

kiers47

kiers47 wrote: »

Still a bit gutted for Jeremy Noseda that he lost the Phoenix horses. If he was still running for him would be great to see gronkowski win. No opinion on it really but will give it a watch I suppose.

Fair play to Noseda he was criticised a bit for pitching that horse in at the deep end in Kentucky. Didn't get there but ran a great race there today albeit under a new trainer.

Francie Barrett

Race was a good example of why trainers shouldn't be allowed to run more than one horse in a race. Baffert's second horse Restoring Hope was clearly ridden in such a way as to make it difficult for any other horse than Justify to set the pace.|

2ndcoming

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Race was a good example of why trainers shouldn't be allowed to run more than one horse in a race. Baffert's second horse Restoring Hope was clearly ridden in such a way as to make it difficult for any other horse than Justify to set the pace.|

How often do we see O'Brien do it here, definitely a case to be made for limiting entries in all classics.

Mgoraf

Why should they be limited? If AOB entries were limited then half of those races would have dreadful fields.

All of AOB runners are in there on merit. Sure he had 4 of the first 5 in the oaks. Limit his runners and the winner wouldn't have ran.

2ndcoming

Mgoraf wrote: »

Why should they be limited? If AOB entries were limited then half of those races would have dreadful fields.

All of AOB runners are in there on merit. Sure he had 4 of the first 5 in the oaks. Limit his runners and the winner wouldn't have ran.

Maybe, or maybe you would get more owners/trainers taking a chance on entering when they only have to beat two Coolmore bred wonder horses.

Francie Barrett

Best horse won, but Baffert really didn't leave anything to chance here.

https://deadspin.com/did-justify-have-another-horse-blocking-for-him-in-his-1826724994/amp

BumperD

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Race was a good example of why trainers shouldn't be allowed to run more than one horse in a race. Baffert's second horse Restoring Hope was clearly ridden in such a way as to make it difficult for any other horse than Justify to set the pace.|

I think you were watching a different race. Justify set his own fractions up front from start the others could could have taken him on early ( the only way to get close as proven in Preakness) but they shirked it.

Great performance and just because we’ve have 2 in 3 years I still think triple crowns will be as rare as hens teeth. I did not think he would be able do it after last race when they were closing at the line. Really surprised the others didn’t deploy the same tactics as last race, not taking anything away from performance, he probably still would have won just not as dominantly

kiers47

BumperD wrote: »

I think you were watching a different race. Justify set his own fractions up front from start the others could could have taken him on early ( the only way to get close as proven in Preakness) but they shirked it.

Great performance and just because we’ve have 2 in 3 years I still think triple crowns will be as rare as hens teeth. I did not think he would be able do it after last race when they were closing at the line. Really surprised the others didn’t deploy the same tactics as last race, not taking anything away from performance, he probably still would have won just not as dominantly

2 in 4. American Pharaoh was in 2015