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weather forecast

  • 13-05-2018 9:11pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 5,864 ✭✭✭ sporina


    the weather forecast was soo wrong this weekend. why? how?


Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,208 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Worth discussing but you need to say what you expected and what happened, where you were also.

    Otherwise you might not get a discussion going. I will have a look in again after I get a chance to compare actual weather observations with forecasts. Also not sure if you're commenting on forecasts here on boards or in the public realm, if so, which forecast?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,864 ✭✭✭ sporina


    Worth discussing but you need to say what you expected and what happened, where you were also.

    Otherwise you might not get a discussion going. I will have a look in again after I get a chance to compare actual weather observations with forecasts. Also not sure if you're commenting on forecasts here on boards or in the public realm, if so, which forecast?

    hi thanks..

    I am was looking at the weather forecast for Glengarrif - Co. Cork. According to yr.no and met eireann, there was to be about 5mm of rain in the afternoon - mountain forecast gave a similar reading.. but there was no rain - and in fact it was sunny...

    There was meant to be more rain in general in the Cork area.. but we only had a shower on Sat eve and no rain on Sunday.

    I have found that the forecast can only be trusted about a day in advance - but last weekend even that was way off.

    Any thoughts?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,277 ✭✭✭✭ Chelsea Weak Plantain


    I was there on holiday last week and was very glad it didn't rain!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,785 ✭✭✭ piuswal


    sporina wrote: »
    hi thanks..

    I am was looking at the weather forecast for Glengarrif - Co. Cork. According to yr.no and met eireann, there was to be about 5mm of rain in the afternoon - mountain forecast gave a similar reading.. but there was no rain - and in fact it was sunny...

    There was meant to be more rain in general in the Cork area.. but we only had a shower on Sat eve and no rain on Sunday.

    I have found that the forecast can only be trusted about a day in advance - but last weekend even that was way off.

    Any thoughts?

    any links to the forecasts or copies?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,208 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    When you have scattered showers rather than an organized frontal band of rain, point forecasts can be more difficult, i.e. unreliable, because the scattered showers may not cover the entire forecast area. This is what the percentage chance is meant to convey (let's say 70% chance of showers in that situation equates to expected 70% coverage). What you can do to improve your chances of deriving an accurate outlook is to assess what is causing the scattered showers and how that might vary from location to location depending on topography. For example, if there was a forecast of scattered showers in west Munster with north to northwest winds, chances are higher that these showers would fall mostly on the north and west sides of higher terrain.

    Problem there is that the average user of said forecasts has insufficient information or experience to do that sort of calculation.

    May post again later.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,864 ✭✭✭ sporina


    piuswal wrote: »
    any links to the forecasts or copies?

    I meant to say " was" looking - not am..
    No links or copies - I monitor the forecast frequently for outdoor activities


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