Epsom Oaks 2018

tryfix

Epsom June 1st
2018-06-01
The Oaks

Best Odds.

Lah Ti Dar 7/2

Happily 8/1

September 10/1

Wild Illusion 12/1

Forever Together 16/1

Magic Wand 16/1

Contingent 16/1

Perfect Clarity 201

Clemmie 20/1

High Garden 25/1

Magical 25/1

I Can Fly 25/1

Bye Bye Baby 33/1

Cecchini 33/1

Sarrochi 33/1

Liquid Amber 33/1

Qazyna 33/1

Veracious 33/1

Hadith 33/1

Sizzling 50/1

Flattering 50/1

Starting this thread because there was a well thought out tip for Wild Illusion on the " can the book be beaten... here for the year " thread.

On another thread there was a bit of a too and fro over Happily's chances of staying the Oaks trip. She can stay the trip. Two of her full siblings Coolmore and Taj Mahal which were the most modest of her dams runners to date both ran in French Classics over 10 1/2f where they showed some of their best form in both staying on into fifth place for Coolmore and 4th for Taj Mahal in their respective races. Taj Mahal went on to finish a respectable 5th in the Irish Champion Stakes behind his very very close relative Decorated Knight.

Taj Mahal is now in Australia and has since been renamed The Taj Mahal, under his new moniker he won a Group 2 over 1m 4f last November. Given Happily's racing style and DI of 0.73 she could well be up staying the Oaks trip. Her pedigree adds the stamina of Galileo to her dam's breeding which is that of being a full sister to Giants Causeway who won multiple Gp 1s over 10f as a 3yo. Unfortunately Happily's full sister Marvellous failed to fire in either the English or Irish Oaks despite starting favourite for Epsom after winning the Irish Guineas.




At this stage there's a bit of digesting to be done as regards form. Magic Wand was impressive at Chester and the Nathaniel filly Perfect Clarity is the other trial winner that has shown enough oomph to promise even more at Epsom.


The Dubawi filly's Lah Ti Dar and Wild Illusion in this race deserve great respect, it's just a pity that Dubawi has a poor record in the Epsom Classics.


Much to ponder, especially what horses O'Brien will actually send to the Oaks. What's the story with September?

ANDREWMUFC

It’ll be a poor enough renewal this year, I can see it being only a 6 or 7 runner race.

Lah Ti Dar, Magic Wand, Wild Illusion and Forever Together and 2 or 3 others making up the numbers. Happily is going to the Irish Guineas and won’t run here, Magical wont run here either and I don’t know what’s going on with September.

I think this could fall nicely for LTD and can see him being 9/4 by next week tbh

tryfix

ANDREWMUFC wrote: »

It’ll be a poor enough renewal this year, I can see it being only a 6 or 7 runner race.

Lah Ti Dar, Magic Wand, Wild Illusion and Forever Together and 2 or 3 others making up the numbers. Happily is going to the Irish Guineas and won’t run here, Magical wont run here either and I don’t know what’s going on with September.

I think this could fall nicely for LTD and can see him being 9/4 by next week tbh

Expressiy


06May18 Nmk row C13yL 28K 1m2f GF 2/6 8/1 rpr 101

01Mar18 Mey 3yG3 111K 1m1½f Fs 2/6 11/1 rpr 93

08Feb18Mey 3yL 111K 1m Fs 3/8 12/1 rpr 95

18Jan18 Mey 3y 44K 7f Fs 3/14 8/1 rpr 74

28Oct17 Nby str C12yL 17K 7f Sft 3/13 6/1 rpr 95

13Oct17 Nmk row C12yG3 34K 7f Gd 6/14 14/1 rpr 90

05Oct17 Cfd C42yNv 6K 7f St 1/13 9/4 rpr 89

03Sep17 Cha 2yG3 34K 1m Sft 5/5 49/10 rpr 75

25Aug17 Nmk july C42yNv 5K 7f Gd 1/10 11/4 rpr 87

28Jul17 Asc C42yNv 6K 7f GS 3/9 7/2 rpr 76

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/1558832/expressiy/form

A word of caution re Lah Ti Dar, she got huge kudos for her win in Listed company last time out. Unfortunately the very experienced second in that race Expressiy ( her form is above ) is a nice bit off Oaks winning standard, so LTD is favourite for the Oaks on her breeding and trainer combination, not on her form.

All of which exposes how open the race is and how big some of the prices are on the less glamorous compared to those of the fashionable types.

kiers47

On a LTD related note who was the last classic winner in the UK not to run at 2?

tryfix

kiers47 wrote: »

On a LTD related note who was the last classic winner in the UK not to run at 2?

Off the top of my head. Ruler Of The World.

kiers47

tryfix wrote: »

Off the top of my head. Ruler Of The World.

Good shout that. Forgot about him.

Eswarah I think is the last filly to win one. So possibly not as out of the question as I had thought.
Still seems a very difficult task all the same.

kfallon

kiers47 wrote: »

On a LTD related note who was the last classic winner in the UK not to run at 2?

Simple Verse in 2015. Lucarno did it too in 2007 and The Gurkha did it but in France.

September will not make The Oaks according to Aidan O'Brien this morning

kfallon

kfallon wrote: »

Simple Verse in 2015. Lucarno did it too in 2007 and The Gurkha did it but in France.

Scorpion was another to do it

kiers47

kfallon wrote: »

Simple Verse in 2015. Lucarno did it too in 2007 and The Gurkha did it but in France.

September will not make The Oaks according to Aidan O'Brien this morning

Good knowledge there.
I was thinking apart from the Ledger i guess.(but i never specified so you weren't to know that.)

The Ledger is obviously an outlier as it is at the backend of the year.

del roy

Trifix

At this stage there's a bit of digesting to be done as regards form. Magic Wand was impressive at Chester and the Nathaniel filly Perfect Clarity is the other trial winner that has shown enough oomph to promise even more at Epsom.

It seems young Mr O' Brien thinks he should have won the race according to podcast a mate heard.

diomed

I saw Bye Bye Baby winning the Blue Wind Stakes at The Curragh on Saturday.
That was a slog of a race. It might leave a mark. Luckily I had no bet. :cool:

diomed

I see in the running comment the second in the Lingfield Oaks Trial, Cecchini, "reported lame post race".

tryfix

del roy wrote: »

Trifix

At this stage there's a bit of digesting to be done as regards form. Magic Wand was impressive at Chester and the Nathaniel filly Perfect Clarity is the other trial winner that has shown enough oomph to promise even more at Epsom.

It seems young Mr O' Brien thinks he should have won the race according to podcast a mate heard.

I'd love to know why he thinks she should have won ( assuming he was talking about Flattering who he doesn't even mention as a likely Oaks candidate at this stage in the excerpt below ), she had the run of the race and looked as if she wasn't all that genuine to me. Maybe some headgear would make her concentrate on the job rather than looking around her.

Looking at the Lingfield race, the form is pretty crap but the winner ( like Lah Ti Dar ) is a likeable unexposed type with a good staying pedigree. I'm coming around to LTD simply because of Gosden.

Cheshire Oaks heroine Magic Wand is set to spearhead Aidan O’Brien’s assault on the Investec Oaks at Epsom.

The daughter of Galileo comfortably saw off stablemate Forever Together on the Roodee last Wednesday and both fillies are likely to bid for Classic glory on June 1.

Magical, who was declared a non-runner in Sunday’s Derrinstown Stud 1,000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown, is also bound for Epsom, while 1000 Guineas third Happily is less likely to make the trip.

O’Brien: “I was talking to Ryan (Moore) about it yesterday. Nothing is decided, but we’re thinking maybe the two fillies from Chester (will run in the Oaks).

“We were thinking about Happily, but we might go to the Irish Guineas with her. After that we might look at the French Oaks. She’s not guaranteed to get a mile and a half that filly.

“Magical didn’t run on Sunday because of the ground. She could go straight to Epsom.

“Before we could run fillies in the Irish Guineas and then go on to Epsom, because there was an extra five or seven days between.

“This year there’s not, so we can’t do the two.”

Two other Ballydoyle inmates who will not be heading to Epsom are Clemmie and September.

Clemmie missed the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket after suffering a setback, while September is also on the easy list.

O’Brien said: “Clemmie is going to start in the Irish 1,000 Guineas and because she had a little setback we have to be very careful.

“We can’t lean very hard on her, but we’re going to run in the Irish Guineas with a view that it will leave her right for (Royal) Ascot.

“She was a little bit wrong behind. We think she tweaked a muscle and we could never really find anything on the X-rays or scans, but she wasn’t 100 per cent in her trot.

“She is now and she’s working very well, but the reality is if Clemmie runs a nice race in the Irish Guineas and finishes in the first four or five, we’ll be very happy going to Ascot.

“If she comes out of it OK there’s going to be a lot of improvement in her.”

Of September, he added: “She is still trotting. She’s nearly 100 per cent, but she’s not sound enough to canter yet.

“We’ll go gentle with her, so she won’t make Epsom.”

http://www.aidanobrienfansite.com/latest-news.php


The problem with O'Brien 's horses is that one of them could be cherry ripe for the day and there's no knowing which one it could be at this stage.

del roy

Sorry Trifix I was talking about Together forever at Chester.

Mgoraf

Think magic wand is a great price now. She'll be AOB main runner and will go off a fraction of thst price.

tryfix

del roy wrote: »

Sorry Trifix I was talking about Together forever at Chester.

Or even Forever Together . Her full sister Together Forever was a good one as was her half brother Lord Shanakill.

She has great potential for improvement as that was her seasonal debut. In the normal run of things she couldn't be expected to suddenly develop the cruising speed to match Magic Wand, but there's nothing normal when it comes to O'Brien's charges ability to swap form and only a market move or statement about their relative well being would make punters any the wiser.

del roy

Lar ti dar now a non runner. wild illusion and Magical sharing fav position in the market.

antietam

Have a smallish bet at 16/1 Bye Bye Baby [Wayne Lordan]and to see 22mm of rain at the course on Tuesday and thundery showers forecast for tomorrow my chances have increased big time.

kiers47

I know i was a bit critical of Lah Ti Dar and her profile for this race. That was more with my betting hat on and her ludicrously short price at the time with a lot of water to go under the bridge.

But jesus on the eve of the race it is badly needing something flashy to come out of it as at the moment its a brutal looking event. The third favourite is a maiden for christ sake

Lah Ti Dar and a few others are badly missed from this event at the moment. Hopefully some filly jumps out and puts up a good performance like Enable did last year.

del roy

yes Kiers hopefully its WILD ILLUSION for the sake of our thread.

kiers47

del roy wrote: »

yes Kiers hopefully its WILD ILLUSION for the sake of our thread.

Yes Del fair play. I have no financial interest myself and i dont think i foresee it at the moment.
So best of luck to ye. Ye got a nice price on her

Mgoraf

Agree with kiers this is a shocking renewal. So many talented horses missing from the field. I think the first two in the market will finished 1 and 2. Wild illusion looks well ahead of everything the only thing putting me off is connections.

del roy

Mgoraf wrote: »

Agree with kiers this is a shocking renewal. So many talented horses missing from the field. I think the first two in the market will finished 1 and 2. Wild illusion looks well ahead of everything the only thing putting me off is connections.

I have to agree, with all the non runners I thought she would have being even shorter that 5/2, that's a bit puzzling but I am hoping for at least a place anything more will be a bonus.


Jerry is very sweet on her, says we won't see the best of her until the last two furlongs, wish I knew what he thinks he knows.