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US Tornado Season 2018
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01-05-2018 8:07pm#1
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Potential exists for a derecho with widespread damaging winds across
parts of the Central Appalachians and Lower Mid-Atlantic States this
afternoon into early evening. A broad swath of scattered severe
storms producing large hail and damaging wind is expected from the
southern Great Plains across the Lower Missouri Valley and Midwest
late afternoon and evening.
...Central Appalachians and Lower Mid-Atlantic States...
A pair of elevated MCSs are ongoing along the OH/PA border and
west-central OH. Robust diabatic heating is occurring to the south
and east of the composite outflow/front to a persistent stratus deck
over the Piedmont and Coastal Plain of PA to northeast VA. The
northeast extent of a massive EML plume will contribute to MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg amid low to mid 60s surface dew points. On the
southern periphery of enhanced mid-level westerlies, an increasingly
organized line with embedded bows may develop. This will probably
move east, before tending to evolve southeast after crossing the
Appalachians this afternoon. Although CAM simulations vary markedly
across the region, potential exists for a derecho with widespread
damaging winds and have increased probabilities accordingly. An
upgrade to Moderate risk may occur if even greater damaging wind
coverage becomes evident with the 20Z outlook. The MCS should
eventually weaken in southeast VA as it becomes increasingly
divorced from stronger deep-layer shear.
...Southern Great Plains to Lower MO Valley...
A broad moderate to strongly unstable air mass will develop this
afternoon southeast of the quasi-stationary front in KS/MO and east
of the southern Great Plains dryline. Frontal convergence, dryline
mixing, and weak impulses embedded within the southwesterly flow
regime aloft should contribute to the initiation of storms from west
TX through parts of OK, KS, and MO by late afternoon. Weak to modest
vertical shear over the southern Great Plains portion will yield
predominant multicell and outflow-dominated storms with risks for
severe wind and hail. Over parts of KS/MO, slightly stronger
deep-layer shear along with an MCV drifting across parts of eastern
KS should support numerous storms and potentially greater large
hail/damaging wind coverage. Hodographs still appear unremarkable,
but will monitor this region for a possible upgrade to Enhanced risk
in the 20Z outlook.
...Mid-MS Valley and Midwest...
In the wake of early-day MCSs and upstream development in KS/MO,
convective evolution late afternoon and evening in this region has
lower confidence. Nevertheless, destabilization should be most
pronounced across the Mid-MS Valley with scattered storm development
near the quasi-stationary front and residual outflow. This activity
may evolve into additional MCSs this evening with severe hail and
damaging wind threats.
...Eastern CO vicinity...
Upslope east-northeast low-level flow will persist beneath moderate
southwesterly winds aloft contributing to 45+ kt effective bulk
shear. The atmosphere is expected to become marginally unstable
along the Front Range and scattered storms will likely develop by
late afternoon to early evening. This environment should support a
couple supercells with large hail the main threat. The weak buoyancy
remains a potential limiting factor, but will continue to monitor
for a possible Slight risk in the 20Z outlook.
...East-central FL Peninsula...
A small corridor of enhanced low-level shear persists within this
region with 0-1 km values near 25 kt per Melbourne VAD wind profile.
Some potential will exist for a brief tornado during the next few
hours with scattered storms emanating north from south FL. Later
this afternoon, low-level winds will veer and reduce available SRH,
mitigating a tornado risk.
..Grams/Coniglio.. 05/14/20180 -
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Might get a couple of Tornadoes from this explosive squall line. Hen size hail being recorded, Washington County
https://twitter.com/NWS/status/996101571317587968
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Big cells over Colarado, Nebraska, Kansas .
GOES 16
https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/996140315361849344
https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/9961517377350369300 -
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That is some intense Squall line for sure , wouldn't like to be landing in that!
https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/996159254062030848
https://twitter.com/NWS/status/9961584095306588210 -
Supercells moving through NY, Massachusetts, Connectiicut states with severe storm warnings and the risk of Tornadoes.
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/996479751228358656
https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/9964813099156480000 -
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Reports of some Tornado activity from yesterdays active weather but most damage from straight line winds / Storms as they moved through the Northeast. 500,000 without power. Some towns declared disaster zones so much damage.
Unfortunately fatalities due to falling trees and lightning.
Big temperatures across the S yesterday equaling and beating records and set to continue with lots of humidity.
Meanwhile OT, what's the panic in Hawaii !
(MarioTama / Getty Images )
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