Aer Lingus & a321LR arrival + new routes

Kcormahs

htt p:// www .travel weekly.co.uk/articles/300 439/aer-lingus-seeks-new-north-america-destinations

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Aer Lingus seeks new North America destinations

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The airline is seeking commercial support for transatlantic network development from airports in the US and Canada with a deadline for applications set for April 6 and new routes announced in May. (...)


Wonder if this means the official announcement for the new routes 2019 in May this year

My suggestions are :

Either Denver (DEN) (60%) or Dallas (DFW) (40%) for a 330 route (if an a321LR replaces a 330 on a current route OR if an additional 330 arrives next year)

Montreal (YUL) and/or Charlotte (CLT) as new routes & the early JFK and maybe an early Boston or a second daily Toronto (YYZ)

This is pure speculation . Any thoughts on this?

JCX BXC

If they're looking for route supports, would this not suggest more regional airports like Hartford?

L1011

JCX BXC wrote: »

If they're looking for route supports, would this not suggest more regional airports like Hartford?

There is normally some level of route support for any unserved route (so CLT wouldn't have anything); Hartford was a special level of support that wouldn't be frequently repeated.

Kcormahs

JCX BXC wrote: »

If they're looking for route supports, would this not suggest more regional airports like Hartford?

I am sure they will prefer routes with a financial support behind but that won't be a requirement.

If they go ahead with the Joint Venture (Which they probably will, since they were looking for staff to deal with this very recently, on the aer lingus careers website) AA hubs like Dallas and Charlotte would make sense to be considered.

jjbrien

Maybe they will fly into Philadelphia that would be a no brainier for them. Maybe Minneapolis I spent a year there there's big interest in Ireland and some big fortune 500 companies one Medtronic set up its HQ now in Dublin. Places like Cleveland as well should be looked at.

JCX BXC

jjbrien wrote: »

Maybe they will fly into Philadelphia that would be a no brainier for them. Maybe Minneapolis I spent a year there there's big interest in Ireland and some big fortune 500 companies one Medtronic set up its HQ now in Dublin. Places like Cleveland as well should be looked at.

Philadelphia actually begins Sunday.

jjbrien

JCX BXC wrote: »

Philadelphia actually begins Sunday.

It was long coming then but the others like Cleveland, Minneapolis etc should be looked at by EI

Maybe run a basic service to comepete with Norwegian into EWR or JFK could even fly into Long Island Islip ISP

L1011

jjbrien wrote: »

It was long coming then but the others like Cleveland, Minneapolis etc should be looked at by EI

Maybe run a basic service to comepete with Norwegian into EWR or JFK could even fly into Long Island Islip ISP

Norwegian are going to go bust. Not worth trying to compete at the bottom with an unprofitable cluster****

Ultra lowcost longhaul doesn't work - it has been tried repeatedly for 40 years. The low cost model requires aircraft utilisation that cannot be done on longhaul and when you multiply out the fares for the actual usage you get "legacy" airline costs quite quickly.

JCX BXC

I think the current model that EI and others are adopting is the way forward, legacy carrier but with a more basic fare, for example you can fly Dublin-Washington in September for €317 return. A fairly reasonable fare, considering many pay as much to go to Spain in peak season.

jjbrien

JCX BXC wrote: »

I think the current model that EI and others are adopting is the way forward, legacy carrier but with a more basic fare, for example you can fly Dublin-Washington in September for €317 return. A fairly reasonable fare, considering many pay as much to go to Spain in peak season.

And that's what I meant by Aer Lingus and a basic service. A early morning flight into EWR maybe. Maybe North american service out of Belfast?

What kinda config are these planes going to have will there be business up front?

L1011

The current service is as basic as you can get, really. EWR is not significantly cheaper, if at all, than JFK.

Belfast has APD, which makes any service significantly dearer. Also it may not be an option for an Irish register airline by March '19. Its not worth looking at.

The 321LR will definitely have lie-flat business class up front.

JCX BXC

jjbrien wrote: »

And that's what I meant by Aer Lingus and a basic service. A early morning flight into EWR maybe. Maybe North american service out of Belfast?

What kinda config are these planes going to have will there be business up front?

Well they already offer this service!

North America will never be seen out of Belfast with Aer Lingus.

jjbrien

JCX BXC wrote: »

Well they already offer this service!

North America will never be seen out of Belfast with Aer Lingus.

At present EI do a 1pm flight into EWR I was suggesting an earlier 8am flight to enable business pax into NJ to do meetings and head back the same day. The load factors into EWR have been good as far as I can see.

JCX BXC

jjbrien wrote: »

God do you have to be so obtrude and make snide comments all the time. At present EI do a 1pm flight into EWR I was suggesting an earlier 8am flight to enable business pax into NJ to do meetings and head back the same day. The load factors into EWR have been good as far as I can see.

God that was quite uncalled for. I was never dissing your suggestion or an 8am flight into Newark, I never made any comment on it. Although I will say that Aer Lingus did previously operate a 7:45am flight to JFK, which appears to have been dropped in favour of Newark.

I don't understand your anger however. I certainly wouldn't consider my posting still agressive or poor in the least.

jjbrien

JCX BXC wrote: »

God that was quite uncalled for. I was never dissing your suggestion or an 8am flight into Newark, I never made any comment on it. Although I will say that Aer Lingus did previously operate a 7:45am flight to JFK, which appears to have been dropped in favour of Newark.

I don't understand your anger however. I certainly wouldn't consider my posting still agressive or poor in the least.

I removed my comment just got a little mad so I am sorry. IAG did say they wanted to make DUB into a hub since LHR is over capacity I for one am looking forward to any more traffic via DUB.

Having worked in NJ a lot of the big Pharma companies HQ's are within a 20 drive of EWR, JFK would take time almost 2 hours to get to. Not saying that JFKS's flights should be cut either but with the smaller planes could make previously less profitable routes viable again

JCX BXC

jjbrien wrote: »

I removed my comment just got a little mad so I am sorry. IAG did say they wanted to make DUB into a hub since LHR is over capacity I for one am looking forward to any more traffic via DUB.

I think it will be a 1-2 route and steady growth scenario for the foreseeable future, but restricting factors like Brexit and a lack of any growth in connecting traffic (unless a Ryanair deal is agreed) and this may faulter.

jjbrien

JCX BXC wrote: »

I think it will be a 1-2 route and steady growth scenario for the foreseeable future, but restricting factors like Brexit and a lack of any growth in connecting traffic (unless a Ryanair deal is agreed) and this may faulter.

Brexit could be a blessing for DUB either the LHR surcharge I know people in Liverpool and Manchester choose going via Dublin due to the lower surcharges and tax

Noxegon

I'm really holding out hope for a Texas route of any kind. I have to go to AUS very regularly now.

I'd take driving from DFW/SAT/IAH over the connecting flight any day.

Locker10a

I’ll be interested to see if they’ll deploy the new a321s on euro sectors in between transatlantics crossings, and if so where. I know they won’t off much, if any extra capacity over the current a320s but it’s smart utilisation.

jjbrien

Noxegon wrote: »

I'm really holding out hope for a Texas route of any kind. I have to go to AUS very regularly now.

I'd take driving from DFW/SAT/IAH over the connecting flight any day.

Sadly Austin is 4030 nm from Dublin so its outside the range of the 321LR but Dallas could be done if the winds are kind since its 3885 nm

Idbatterim

jjbrien wrote: »

Sadly Austin is 4030 nm from Dublin so its outside the range of the 321LR but Dallas could be done if the winds are kind since its 3885 nm

are those range for MTOW? could it reach austin if below mtow?

L1011

The payload is already not fantastic at the longest distance.

trellheim

low cost model requires aircraft utilisation that cannot be done on longhaul

How is that the case since the aircraft is airborne most of every day as it can fly Transatlantic through the night, which a lo-cost here like FR wont do.

sdanseo

trellheim wrote: »

How is that the case since the aircraft is airborne most of every day as it can fly Transatlantic through the night, which a lo-cost here like FR wont do.

You have to consider the number of the sectors as well as the amount of time in the air, plus the competition on a particular route. You can't necessarily charge 7 times as much for a 7hr flight as you do for a 1hr flight. Hence operating 18 hours a day with fast ground turnarounds generates more in the way of profit for FR even with a similar number of hours in the air as EI A330s.

kevinandrew

moloner4 wrote: »

With 12 coming in, East coast will be utilised mostly for them. The 5 year plan (as someone posted up in another thread) has no plans to retire any of the 330s for the next 5 years so only expansion (apart from retiring 4 757s). I say a couple of eastern routes maybe added on top i.e. TLV or SVO potentially.

Only 8 are actually confirmed at the moment, it was originally 7 and was increased to 8 with a business case being considered for 12 in the future. 

Israel has potential but it's currently a pretty small market from Ireland and Aer Lingus are very much focused on "demand lead" expansion. Same could be said for Russia, it's a small market and not great for aircraft utilisation.

Kcormahs

kevinandrew wrote: »

Only 8 are actually confirmed at the moment, it was originally 7 and was increased to 8 with a business case being considered for 12 in the future. 

Israel has potential but it's currently a pretty small market from Ireland and Aer Lingus are very much focused on "demand lead" expansion. Same could be said for Russia, it's a small market and not great for aircraft utilisation.

plus, Israel would envolve a flight crew layover (same as Russia I would think) and that'd be an extra cost that Aer Lingus may not be interested in taking.

Even the CDG and AMS flight crew and aircraft layovers were cut a few years ago in order to reduce costs although these ones were pretty profitable thanks to the early morning traffic

IE 222

Id like to see some central routes come on board. Would Memphis & St Louis be in range of A321. Indianapolis would be another interesting city. Should be good cargo loadinds in Memphis and Indianapolis as well with FedEx based in them.

Would pulling A330 from JFK & BOS and allocating 8 A321 to serve DUB/SNN - JFK & BOS and maybe EWR be looked into. Using the same aircraft should allow 10 - 12 returns journeys be completed over a 24 hour period with earlier and later departures from both US and Ireland also the Hartford aircraft can used if there's any tight morning turn arounds in DUB.

basill

UK regional to East coast US will form a big chunk of the NEOs work. What we don't know yet is if they will utilise CBP in DUB or SNN on the way over. The rest will be to supplement existing routes on days when demand is strong. Then there will be the subsidised routes that are a no brainer like Hartford. The working conditions are already agreed - essentially a tour of duty with the potential for back to back east coast flights terminating back into Dublin on the last day of duty.

IE 222

basill wrote: »

UK regional to East coast US will form a big chunk of the NEOs work. What we don't know yet is if they will utilise CBP in DUB or SNN on the way over. The rest will be to supplement existing routes on days when demand is strong. Then there will be the subsidised routes that are a no brainer like Hartford. The working conditions are already agreed - essentially a tour of duty with the potential for back to back east coast flights terminating back into Dublin on the last day of duty.

Were are you getting this info from. It would be better and quicker for UK passengers to travel to DUB while Aer Lingus most definitely won't be doing a 1-2 hour stop off for CBP from UK regionals.

Tenger

kevinandrew wrote: »

Only 8 are actually confirmed at the moment, it was originally 7 and was increased to 8 with a business case being considered for 12 in the future....

Officially 8 is the number ordered but the IAG presentation before Xmas showed a 2022 fleet plan of 12 A321LRs and 14 A330s.
So I expect IAG have the options on 4 more (at the very least) and are just waiting to confirm it.

EI will have a config similar to the current B757s which is 12/170 I believe.
And they have already stated that they will deploy them on 'targeted shorthaul routes' to improve their product offering.

I will take a guess that EI would like to increase frequency on busy East Coast routes (JFK, BOS) to free up A330's for further into the Continental USA. They can mixup the aircraft type to maximise their yield/load management.

2x A330=630 seats, 3x A321LR= ~570 seats, 2xA321/1xA330= 695 seats.

Kcormahs

Tenger wrote: »

Officially 8 is the number ordered but the IAG presentation before Xmas showed a 2022 fleet plan of 12 A321LRs and 14 A330s.
So I expect IAG have the options on 4 more and are just waiting to confirm it.

EI will have a config similar to the current B757s which is 12/170 I believe.
And they have already stated that they will deploy them on 'targeted shorthaul routes' to improve their product offering.

I will take a guess that EI would like to increase frequency on busy East Coast routes (JFK, BOS) to free up A330's for further into the Continental USA. They can mixup the aircraft to maximise their yield/load management.

2x A330=630 seats, 3x A321LR= ~570 seats, 2xA321/1xA330= 695 seats.

b757 is 12J / 165 Y.

I recall the 12 321LR plan on the slide but only 13 a330s until 2022. Maybe I am wrong and there was a different slide going on

Tenger

Kcormahs wrote: »

b757 is 12J / 165 Y.

I recall the 12 321LR plan on the slide but only 13 a330s until 2022. Maybe I am wrong and there was a different slide going on

Thanks for the clarification on the B757.

I am going on memory on that slide, I thought both numbers were even. Couldnt recall was it 12/12 or 12/14. So seems like I was really wrong.
Regardless it was the 12 A321LR and the disposal of the B757 that stuck in my head

Skuzchad

Would it be a bad idea or bad appeal to passengers for Dublin airport or Ei to offer a red eye from Dublin to the states .whether it dublin to LA or Dublin to New york maybe leave Dublin at about 9:30pm or something .just an idea

trellheim

2130 from DUB to JFK would get in around midnight and would be about the same for west coast maybe 1 am so you've got a frame to turn around and get back into the air for .. oh... 0200/0300 local meh not that attractive coming or going EXCEPT if you wanted to avoid the crowd in T2

Skuzchad

trellheim wrote: »

2130 from DUB to JFK would get in around midnight and would be about the same for west coast maybe 1 am so you've got a frame to turn around and get back into the air for .. oh... 0200/0300 local meh not that attractive coming or going EXCEPT if you wanted to avoid the crowd in T2

What about a 6pm flight ? I only ask as i know some flights in general have a red eye kinda last flight outta out .so whatever departure would work from Dublin to get people into new york for say 8pm ?? Bad idea prob .but if u get what i mean ?

Kcormahs

Skuzchad wrote: »

Would it be a bad idea or bad appeal to passengers for Dublin airport or Ei to offer a red eye from Dublin to the states .whether it dublin to LA or Dublin to New york maybe leave Dublin at about 9:30pm or something .just an idea

The only issue for those flights would be the connections. Between a third to a half of the TA flights are based on connecting flights and most european aer lingus flights arrive into dublin at 10.30 the earliest so they would all miss their connection. Plans for earlier european flights have been on the cards but that would envolve overnighting the aircraft in those europeans cities, in order to land in Dublin at 8am/9am.

There was talks of the a321LR flying Cdg/Ams Dub, dub jfk (example) in order to provide a full business class experience to those passengers. Nevertheless this idea been very quiet recently.
Probably its been scrapped.

Kcormahs

moloner4 wrote: »

I'd say only one of the routes in 2019 will get a 321, 2020 is the year where the fun starts.

2020 for the european earlier flights too, you mean? 2020 will see a reduce on the 757 lease too so I don’t see much of a difference regarding operations. Probb 2021. This is if they confirm 12 a321LR. At the moment there are only 8 on a cofirm order.

What about the shorthaul fleet (320 mainly) any orders or extra leasings to increase the current 34 ac?

Tenger

Kcormahs wrote: »

What about the shorthaul fleet (320 mainly) any orders or extra leasings to increase the current 34 ac?

Im not 100% but I have a recollection from a few months of the EI CEO or COO stating that their A320 replacement will be dealt as their leases expire. Sounded to me that large A320 order isnt a priority to them.

Marcusm

Skuzchad wrote: »

What about a 6pm flight ? I only ask as i know some flights in general have a red eye kinda last flight outta out .so whatever departure would work from Dublin to get people into new york for say 8pm ?? Bad idea prob .but if u get what i mean ?

In terms of terminology, it wouldn’t be a red-eye flight as those arrive early in the morning (and you head straight to work with red eyes). However, I think some later flights might gain traction. When working in lindon, I used to fly to NY maybe once every month. I would take the 8pm BA departure (or occasionally Virgin equivalent) and be in a hotel in manhattan around midnight. That would not be a popular flight for many leisure travellers as it’s effectively an extra night’s hotel for a half day’s extra time.

LXFlyer

Kcormahs wrote: »

The earlier european flights won’t happen. All the flights for sale up to july next year have the same schedules as this summer with the earliest arrival in Dublin from Cdg and Ams at 10am

That doesn’t mean that it won’t happen. Next summer’s timetables aren’t finalised yet. It’s way too early to be making assumptions like that.

Airlines don’t finalise summer schedules until after the winter one commences in October and even then they could change timings. Heck the winter schedule from October to March is still subject to the possibility of timing changes.

All they tend to do in the booking system is push out the current schedules at this early stage (unless they have decided to drop a route).