Flat Season 2018

BumperD

On the eve of this kickoff thought I’d open a thread for people to post up fancies for the season. One horse I am really looking forward to seeing out again is the 3yr old Amedeo Modigliani who won a maiden late last summer ( a race that has a decent roll call and produced an Irish Derby and Melbourne cup winner the year before so we know a good one often turns up). I was really taken with the performance that day and while you never know how they will train on, there was a positive update in the stable tour. All going well, he’d be Derby bound but a lot has to go right between now and then

http://www.attheraces.com/stable-tours/aidan-o'brien

“He looks a very nice horse. He only had two runs last year and we only learned a bit about him in those. In an ideal world, we would have got more experience into him later in the season, but that wasn’t to be as he had a little setback and we didn’t want to force him to get another run into him. He’s a horse that travels so strongly at home and in his races that you’d say he probably goes more like a miler than a middle-distance horse, but he’s by Galileo and that always gives them a chance of staying. He’s only had the two runs, so his exuberance in his races might just have been babyishness. We’ll probably start him off gently in a Derby trial and we’ll evaluate him from there. We just wouldn’t want to light him up to be a Guineas horse as we’d find it easier to start him off over further and bring him back in trip if we needed to rather than the opposite. He has won on soft ground, but he’s a very good mover and good ground or better should suit him well.”

Let’s look forward to a cracking summer ahead

RivetingRoger

Looking forward to seeting Taqdeer in the second at Donny today. If he was in top form he should win this, a long time off tho.
Another I am really looking forward to seeing this year is Battash. He was almost like buying money in sprint races last year and at time went off at decent prices too

Nulty

Bataash is the horse I'm most excited about this flat season. Absolute beast. Tasleet is another, he deserves a big race.

piplip87

I am looking forward to St Patrick's Day. Was in the states as a 2 year old now with O'Brien.

Has Winter been retired ? Can't find anything online but was not included in the stable tour

Slattsy

piplip87 wrote: »

I am looking forward to St Patrick's Day. Was in the states as a 2 year old now with O'Brien.

Has Winter been retired ? Can't find anything online but was not included in the stable tour

I was just about to say it was last week!

supremenovice

I'm interested in the 3yo milers. I reckon they are a fairly mediocre lot. Can US Navy Flag actually carry his 2yo form as a 3yo? War Front colts now have a reputation as being very forward 2yo's that just don't train on. I really hope he can buck that trend. Certainly the Coolmore boys still believe in that stallion which baffles me.

sdoc13

supremenovice wrote:

I'm interested in the 3yo milers. I reckon they are a fairly mediocre lot. Can US Navy Flag actually carry his 2yo form as a 3yo? War Front colts now have a reputation as being very forward 2yo's that just don't train on. I really hope he can buck that trend. Certainly the Coolmore boys still believe in that stallion which baffles me.

War front off spring had a very successful royal ascot to be fair.

supremenovice

My favourite filly last year was September. I hope she proves to be the best of Aidans fillys, though their strength in depth is off the charts. She needs concrete hard surface to see her best though (being by Deep Impact), so all depends what kind of summer we get.

BumperD

Guys I’m trying to remember a horse from last season thought I stuck it in my tracker, Dettori won on it , it was a 3yr frankel colt or gelding, I’ve tried to find using the filters , is there any way to list his3yr old frankel offspring from last year that he won on?

supremenovice

BumperD wrote: »

Guys I’m trying to remember a horse from last season thought I stuck it in my tracker, Dettori won on it , it was a 3yr frankel colt or gelding, I’ve tried to find using the filters , is there any way to list his3yr old frankel offspring from last year that he won on?

Monarchs Glen?
I looked up Frankels progeny results from last year on RP site

BumperD

supremenovice wrote: »

Monarchs Glen?
I looked up Frankels progeny results from last year on RP site

That’s him supreme! Fair play to you. He’s going straight into the tracker .

longshotvalue

supremenovice wrote: »

My favourite filly last year was September. I hope she proves to be the best of Aidans fillys, though their strength in depth is off the charts. She needs concrete hard surface to see her best though (being by Deep Impact), so all depends what kind of summer we get.

I have her as cast iron in the 1000 if the surface is decent.

madmoose

She will go close, needs that stiff mile, had backed last summer but thought my chances were fading until she bounced back in Autumn.

The Mig

piplip87 wrote: »

I am looking forward to St Patrick's Day. Was in the states as a 2 year old now with O'Brien.

Has Winter been retired ? Can't find anything online but was not included in the stable tour

Winter and Minding are retired and were both covered by Deep Impact

tryfix

It's easy to blow up a promising pedigree and trainer combination into a Classic contender, that's a whole lot different than successfully picking the actual big race winners themselves.

At this stage the best ante-post bet for the Classics for me is Saxon Warrior @ 4/1 for the Derby. I was disappointed by his Racing Post Trophy win in that I'd like him to have thrashed his field instead of having to out-battle Gosden's horse.

In the end he was well on top and there were a lot of very solid horses left in the wake of the first two. More promising than the win itself was the depth of Epsom credentials on the Dam side of his pedigree. It's a family with Derby winner Dr Devious close up in the pedigree as well as Oaks winner Dancing Rain.

supremenovice

The Mig wrote: »

Winter and Minding are retired and were both covered by Deep Impact

Sounds like The Lads have copped onto Deep Impacts top drawer sire potential over this side of the globe. Its like he's the Galileo of the East.
I'll never forget that Arc day in 2006. I remember Angus Loughran who was doing betting ring coverage for BBC, and he was flabbergasted at the Japanese money coming for Deep Impact. He never seen anything like it. They thought they were buying money. Utaka Take kept him up front the whole way unlike all his other performances where he stormed home from the back. He finished a never threatening 3rd if I remember right, to Rail Link.

kiers47

supremenovice wrote: »

Sounds like The Lads have copped onto Deep Impacts top drawer sire potential over this side of the globe. Its like he's the Galileo of the East.
I'll never forget that Arc day in 2006. I remember Angus Loughran who was doing betting ring coverage for BBC, and he was flabbergasted at the Japanese money coming for Deep Impact. He never seen anything like it. They thought they were buying money. Utaka Take kept him up front the whole way unlike all his other performances where he stormed home from the back. He finished a never threatening 3rd if I remember right, to Rail Link.

Wasnt his PMU price predicted as somewhere in the region of 1-10 or something. Absolutely staggering stuff.

Itziger

supremenovice wrote: »

The Mig wrote: »

Winter and Minding are retired and were both covered by Deep Impact

Sounds like The Lads have copped onto Deep Impacts top drawer sire potential over this side of the globe. Its like he's the Galileo of the East.
I'll never forget that Arc day in 2006. I remember Angus Loughran who was doing betting ring coverage for BBC, and he was flabbergasted at the Japanese money coming for Deep Impact. He never seen anything like it. They thought they were buying money. Utaka Take kept him up front the whole way unlike all his other performances where he stormed home from the back. He finished a never threatening 3rd if I remember right, to Rail Link.

I think you need to refresh the memory!! He was neck and neck with Rail Link with 100 metres to go and faded a small bit. Finished 3rd alright but he certainly threatened. To win it. The Pari Mutuel was a bloody disgrace that day cos you couldn't get anywhere near a betting booth. Iirc (my turn to show my age!), Rail Link went out to something like 27/1 about 30 seconds before the off.

supremenovice

Itziger wrote: »

I think you need to refresh the memory!! He was neck and neck with Rail Link with 100 metres to go and faded a small bit. Finished 3rd alright but he certainly threatened. To win it. The Pari Mutuel was a bloody disgrace that day cos you couldn't get anywhere near a betting booth. Iirc (my turn to show my age!), Rail Link went out to something like 27/1 about 30 seconds before the off.

And so I did. Yeah, he was in it until the half furlong then couldn't find any more.
I also recall reading Ian McLean in the Sunday Indo the following week, talking about an argument he had with Powers when he requsted the Pari Mutuel of 25/1 on Rail Link (as they offered either industry or PMU) and they politely told him to p*** off.

BumperD

Monarchs Glen runs tomorrow in Meydan, was more thinking a flat turf campaign in UK to follow him but I will start tomorrow following him as I’d be a little pissed if he bolted up, a group 3 like this should well be within his range 11/1

Edit Group 1, ( not sure how I thought was growing 3 with 2.6m prize for first) still wouldn’t put me off backing him

BumperD

Monarchs Glen pulled and faded tamely a shocker

tryfix

It's early days in the season but Mendelssohn giving an easy 32lb beating to a bunch of 100+ OR horses in Meydan is a quite mind-boggling start.

Hopefully this was the real deal and not some kind of mirage. His breeding certainly points to greatness, but how will O'Brien manage his season?

He's a potential 3yo dirt champion in the US, but a season of transatlantic flights isn't the kind of prepping that'd get the best out of his season.

supremenovice

tryfix wrote: »

It's early days in the season but Mendelssohn giving an easy 32lb beating to a bunch of 100+ OR horses in Meydan is a quite mind-boggling start.

Hopefully this was the real deal and not some kind of mirage. His breeding certainly points to greatness, but how will O'Brien manage his season?

He's a potential 3yo dirt champion in the US, but a season of transatlantic flights isn't the kind of prepping that'd get the best out of his season.

It appears he has improved massively for the move to dirt. Not to mention the fact that he's very far forward for a Ballydoyle horse for this time of year.
It'll be interesting to see if US Navy Flag can hold the form up as well (beat Mendelssohn by 2.5 lengths in October on turf).

piplip87

tryfix wrote: »

It's early days in the season but Mendelssohn giving an easy 32lb beating to a bunch of 100+ OR horses in Meydan is a quite mind-boggling start.

Hopefully this was the real deal and not some kind of mirage. His breeding certainly points to greatness, but how will O'Brien manage his season?

He's a potential 3yo dirt champion in the US, but a season of transatlantic flights isn't the kind of prepping that'd get the best out of his season.

American Triple Crown could be an option. O'Brien seems well stocked for the big ones this side of the Atlantic. Which puts Moore in a predicament. I think Moore will go to Kentucky and anywhere else where he hasn't won before.

kiers47

He looks massively improved. But these Meydan races are often run very strangely with the from often worth nothing going forward.

That being said you couldn't but be impressed with the run.

tryfix

supremenovice wrote: »

It appears he has improved massively for the move to dirt. Not to mention the fact that he's very far forward for a Ballydoyle horse for this time of year.
It'll be interesting to see if US Navy Flag can hold the form up as well (beat Mendelssohn by 2.5 lengths in October on turf).

I don't think you can take his 2yo form with US Navy Flag at face value. He was a hugely expensive yearling at $3m and his long term career as a stallion prospect was always paramount so they started him off very steadily. He was quite stuffy looking as a 2yo, in Meydan he looked lean and hard trained which is unusual for O'Brien horses at this time of the year, although maybe he has some filling out to do on a growing frame. If he was going to win a Kentucky Derby then he needed to be battle hardened by May which would explain why he was so far forward.

As a son of Scat Daddy you'd have to be a bit wary of him training on through the year, but his sibling the champion Beholder ran for 5 seasons and got better with age. He's worth chancing a bet on in the Kentucky Derby. I think US Navy Flag might come good later in season, I wouldn't be too enthusiastic about his 2,000 Guineas chances.

Thud

How would you read the Dundalk form where he only beat Threeandfourpence by 3/4l?
Threeandfourpence looked off in Meydan.

Moore likely to go to Kentucky over Newmarket:
https://www.racingpost.com/news/ryan-moore-to-partner-pletcher-ace-marconi-in-kentucky-derby-trial-on-saturday/326033

tryfix

Thud wrote: »

How would you read the Dundalk form where he only beat Threeandfourpence by 3/4l?
Threeandfourpence looked off in Meydan.

Moore likely to go to Kentucky over Newmarket:
https://www.racingpost.com/news/ryan-moore-to-partner-pletcher-ace-marconi-in-kentucky-derby-trial-on-saturday/326033

The Dundalk race was just a prep race for the Dubai and Kentucky races and the form in it was solid enough ( threeandfourpence and Seahenge were 4th and 3rd in the Dewhurst ).

For sure Threeandfourpence didn't run to form in Dubai ( beaten 55L ) while Seahenge was beaten by only 26L when normally there's only a length or two between those two horses. Just how poorly though did Seahenge run? He started slowly but ran on in the final 3f. He didn't throw in the towel as Threeandfourpence had done. If you look at the bolded comments in running for the horse in behind Mendelssohn, they are not the kind of in running comments that imply those horses were running stones behind their ability.

There's no real way of figuring out what exactly happened in Dubai unless you were some kind of sectional times wizard in relation to Meydan form. The simple fact of the race is that Mendelssohn thrashed Group and listed winning horses by 18L+++ and those particular placed horses in behind him ran their hearts out to try and keep up with him. That fact has not been properly acknowledged by the likes of the racing post ratings who gave Mendelssohn 122 RPR for the race, equivalent to about 120 OR while the rest of the field have had their performances in that race marked down to a level stones behind their normal level. The official bhb ratings give Mendelssohn a 122 OR for the race which is ahead of many recent Group 1 and classic winners.

2nd placed Raya ( Tracked leading pair, ran on well final 3f but no chance with winner ) a Gp 3 and listed winning 105 OR horse going into the race whose lifetime racing post ratings preceeding the race started at 91 on his debut and he then ran 101, 101, 101 until his strong run in 2nd in this group 2 race was given 80, a full 21Lbs behind his recent form and 11 Lb below his debut run. Everyone of his runs have been at the Meydan track. Does that 80 rpr make any sense?

3rd placed US horse Reride ( Mid-division, ran on final 2 1/2f but no chance with winner ) has also been deemed to have run to a mark of 78 ( won both of his other races since his debut but there's no RPR for those US races), that's 10lb below his debut 88 RPR according to the racing post ratings.

4th placed Gold Town ( Tracked leading pair, every chance 3f out, weakened final 1 1/2f ) an OR 113 Gp3 winner and favourite for the race is deemed to have run to 75, that's 9Lbs behind his debut 84 and 37Lbs behind his previous race where he hit an OR of 112

5th placed Seahenge (Slowly away, never near to challenge but ran on final 3f ) OR 112 , hit rpr 110 when he won an English GP2 as a 2yo and ran to rpr 104 on the all weather in Ireland previous to this race. He's deemed to have run to 69, a full 15Lb behind his debut 84 ( and we know how gently O'Brien introduces his 2yos ) and 41Lbs behind his best rpr.

BumperD

BumperD wrote: »

Guys I’m trying to remember a horse from last season thought I stuck it in my tracker, Dettori won on it , it was a 3yr frankel colt or gelding, I’ve tried to find using the filters , is there any way to list his3yr old frankel offspring from last year that he won on?

supremenovice wrote: »

Monarchs Glen?
I looked up Frankels progeny results from last year on RP site

BumperD wrote: »

That’s him supreme! Fair play to you. He’s going straight into the tracker .

BumperD wrote: »

Monarchs Glen runs tomorrow in Meydan, was more thinking a flat turf campaign in UK to follow him but I will start tomorrow following him as I’d be a little pissed if he bolted up, a group 3 like this should well be within his range 11/1

Edit Group 1, ( not sure how I thought was growing 3 with 2.6m prize for first) still wouldn’t put me off backing him

Removed him from my tracker after backing him at Medan and he romps home today aaaaaaahhhhhhhhn Back in tracker

BumperD

Just saw the race Ten Commandments won at The Curragh. I think we will be hearing a lot about him he spread the field. Hopefully he’s not one of these that puts in a massive performance then falls away into obscurity. Visually so impressive

BumperD

BumperD wrote: »

On the eve of this kickoff thought I’d open a thread for people to post up fancies for the season. One horse I am really looking forward to seeing out again is the 3yr old Amedeo Modigliani who won a maiden late last summer ( a race that has a decent roll call and produced an Irish Derby and Melbourne cup winner the year before so we know a good one often turns up). I was really taken with the performance that day and while you never know how they will train on, there was a positive update in the stable tour. All going well, he’d be Derby bound but a lot has to go right between now and then

http://www.attheraces.com/stable-tours/aidan-o'brien

“He looks a very nice horse. He only had two runs last year and we only learned a bit about him in those. In an ideal world, we would have got more experience into him later in the season, but that wasn’t to be as he had a little setback and we didn’t want to force him to get another run into him. He’s a horse that travels so strongly at home and in his races that you’d say he probably goes more like a miler than a middle-distance horse, but he’s by Galileo and that always gives them a chance of staying. He’s only had the two runs, so his exuberance in his races might just have been babyishness. We’ll probably start him off gently in a Derby trial and we’ll evaluate him from there. We just wouldn’t want to light him up to be a Guineas horse as we’d find it easier to start him off over further and bring him back in trip if we needed to rather than the opposite. He has won on soft ground, but he’s a very good mover and good ground or better should suit him well.”

Let’s look forward to a cracking summer ahead

Didn’t think I’d have to wait until the end of season this fella has an entry this weekend at long last Saturday Leopardstown