Doncaster Lincoln

Nulty

Fancy a few in here. I had picked out Ballard Down for last years Cambridgeshire only for the horse to get injured. He's in here at 20s (been tipped up at 25s and thats gone). He has plenty of potential and is thought highly of.

The other is Donncha who's been gelded since last time out and runs here off 3lbs lower than finishing 1/2 length 3rd in the race last year.

Ballard Down 1pt ew @ 20/1
Donncha 1pt ew @ 25/1

kiers47

Now your talking.

I went through this a fair bit last night and it is the usual impossible minefield.
However I will likely take a flyer at a couple of bigger prices at the end of the weights on the hope they get in.
Although in saying that Lord Glitters is a horse I really like and is a deserving favorite. But you need luck here.

Afaak will get in. He's interesting on what is definitely a marl that underestimates him. He is sure to go on the ground and won a c and d handicap last year also on soft. That race he beat Mojito of William Haggas who is now rated 107 he was giving him 3 lb that day and gets in off 97. He also has had nice runs in defeat on his 2 runs at the back end of last year also in testing conditions. My only worry is that they don't plan on running him with the fact he is 20/1 +
Also in the Hamdan colours Taqdeer is a horse that has had issues not sure if they plan to run him but if they do he is sure to get backed. Probably more of one to watch. If back to form of his last run 2 years ago he'd certainly be favorite for this on a mark of 95.

Graphite Storm needs to be buried and wants to come through horses late. Hopefully they get Adam Kirby on him. He will like the ground has a nice weight but he needs things to go his way. I seen a bit of 66/1 around and if he gets in he is certainly no back number. Will need some help to get in though.

1 more at a price but unlikely to get in but a small chance of sneaking in. This is probably plucking at straws but Humbert is a horse of Hugo Palmer who has shot up the weights during an all weather campaign at the start of his year. He has went from strength to strength and had excuses for his 2nd place last time out. The ground is unknown but he did run well in a sales race on yielding in the curragh at the back end of last year. 66/1 is huge for a horse bang in form off a nice mark all be it he needs some help getting in.

I'll add 1 more who I think will runs well but he might just be vulnerable to an improver. Another Touch is a regular in these events and usually is a good horse to run his race but usually finds a few to good. He will need a few to fluff their lines but if they do he will be bang there.

The 3 I'm going with are
Afaak
Graphite Storm
Humbert
(Will back now and hope they get in)
Money back if they get balloted out anyway.

Bring on the flat!!

irish_major

Any thoughts on the Irish lincoln?

kiers47

irish_major wrote: »

Any thoughts on the Irish lincoln?

I do have a few thoughts on it alright. Was hoping for some prices today.
Ill stick up a thread later or here with how i was leaning.

kiers47

Unfortunately Graphite Storm and Humbert were balloted out. Afaak looks to have been taken out.
Will take a further look at the race later tonight. My horse for the Irish Lincoln was declared for the Doncaster race. An absolute mare of a start to the flat season. Haha
Money back at least on 2 of my selections. Which was always the likely result in playing the lower down ones but you can off nab a price on one.

Gavin "shels"

https://www.racingtips.com/category/tips/lincoln-handicap-trend-setters-20180322-0005/

Some good trends there!

maximo31

Leader Writer EW in this for me. Best price 14/1.

kiers47

maximo31 wrote: »

Leader Writer EW in this for me. Best price 14/1.

He was the one i fancied for the Irish Lincoln when i seen him entered there. I think he would have been well suited Naas and was hoping for a price.

But alas he goes here instead. I think he is edging towards the right price but probably still a bit of juice there at 14s.
I may have a saver on him.

Great start to the flat. All my selections are either getting balloted out or running in different races to what i hoped. :pac::pac::rolleyes:

kiers47

Also the pace looks to be all on the stand side. So in my view you want to be drawn high.
Not an exact science though with Bravery tracking across to the pace last year.

maximo31

I do enjoy a Combo F.C. so will give it a go in this race at a €1 stake costing €20 for 5 horses.
My horses are : Leader Writer , Donncha , Bravery , Fire Brigade & Grey Britain.

Slattsy

Gabrial for me. Spencer up, enjoys the ground and big field handicaps, can be hit and miss, but I'd rather take the chance on this fella to be a miss a 33s. Each way chance.

danganabu

Know SFA about the flat ( some of you probably think the same about my NH knowledge :P) but having applied a trends and statisics approach have landed on Addeybb. His middle draw the only concern from a trends perspective.

Slattsy

Also, the flat is ****e.

longshotvalue

Doncaster 2:25

Hard to believe that the boring flat is back so soon after the highs of Cheltenham but a 33/1 shot that should be 16/1 is as good here are it was last week. Pastime was a big eye catcher behind the fav for this race last year, around here in a strong looking 7 furlong handicap on Soft Ground. He is now 8lbs better off with What’s the Story for a couple of lengths in that run and Pastime had to come from another parish to grab 3rd. I think we can safely ignore his last run as he got behind early and never really got into the race. That run should put him right for this and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the step up in trip and the ground and course were all in his favour here. 33/1 looks massive. Mosse is booked for the ride and that can only be an advantage.


2 Points EW 33/1 5 places paddy/lads/betway

kiers47

OK went through the Lincoln again last night. I think the market is fairly solid at this stage and I am not really seeing anything massively out of whack with how my tissues was.

Repercussion is probably the bet at the prices. I had him priced at a 18/1 shot and you can get 28/1 if you shop around. Even though I'm not thrilled about the draw.
He is the main selection with a saver on Leader Writer.

RivetingRoger

Taqdeer in the second today
5/1 a bit small for a horse off so long but anything like a return to form should see him win this

Nulty

I'm not surprised to see Dark Red come in from 33/1. I was gonna back it but I'm sticking with the two at the top of the thread

piplip87

Mitchum Swagger at 16s ew for me

abarkie

Will be interesting to see how See you at midnight - 350 newbury gets on today - Being aimed for the National apparenly

Others that catch the eye are:

Tombstone 245 Thurles

Diamond king 430 Thurles - must surely find this easier

Lord Glitters in the Lincoln to see if he picks up where he left off last season

Good luck folks

RivetingRoger

Have tombstone backed but with little or no confidence really
Have him with Diamond King and Taqdeer

Tombstone looked a good novice but very flaky lately. Jezki leathered it when fav on Jezki's reapearance last year
Think it has won since but only backing today really on the strength of the stable/jockey combo right now and the weakness of the field

gazza1

Quite like CASTLEGRACE PADDY chances today. Won quite easily for his first chase even with a couple of dodgy jumps and pulled hard early on too.
He had BRELADE rated 141 back in 3rd beaten 9L and finished with plenty in the tank giving the impression the extra 2f today should be welcome

BOL

longshotvalue

Doncaster 3:35
London Protocol was a bit of a talking horse a few times in the past but he finally got his act together with a couple of wins in France at the end of last year. He has been disappointing since but a couple of runs in Mayden should have put him right for this. He does look to be on a fairly tough mark but has plenty of form on soft and looks worth a play here at a huge price. He might just improve this year and if he does 66/1 could look very big.
1 Point EW 6 places 66/1 sky & coral 5 places generally

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Doncaster 2:25

Hard to believe that the boring flat is back so soon after the highs of Cheltenham but a 33/1 shot that should be 16/1 is as good here are it was last week. Pastime was a big eye catcher behind the fav for this race last year, around here in a strong looking 7 furlong handicap on Soft Ground. He is now 8lbs better off with What’s the Story for a couple of lengths in that run and Pastime had to come from another parish to grab 3rd. I think we can safely ignore his last run as he got behind early and never really got into the race. That run should put him right for this and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the step up in trip and the ground and course were all in his favour here. 33/1 looks massive. Mosse is booked for the ride and that can only be an advantage.


2 Points EW 33/1 5 places paddy/lads/betway

Got the 5th very decent payout . Good start to the flat .

gazza1

gazza1 wrote: »

Quite like CASTLEGRACE PADDY chances today. Won quite easily for his first chase even with a couple of dodgy jumps and pulled hard early on too.
He had BRELADE rated 141 back in 3rd beaten 9L and finished with plenty in the tank giving the impression the extra 2f today should be welcome

BOL

SP 11/2 I'll gladly take that !!

Slattsy

Slattsy wrote: »

Gabrial for me. Spencer up, enjoys the ground and big field handicaps, can be hit and miss, but I'd rather take the chance on this fella to be a miss a 33s. Each way chance.

Each way chance lands.

danganabu

danganabu wrote: »

Know SFA about the flat ( some of you probably think the same about my NH knowledge :P) but having applied a trends and statisics approach have landed on Addeybb. His middle draw the only concern from a trends perspective.

Game by the balls ðŸ˜ðŸ˜