Project Ireland 2040/NDP 2018-2027

KCross

http://www.gov.ie/en/project-ireland-2040

http://www.gov.ie/en/pdf-viewer/?file=https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/govieassets/18/5569359-NDP%20strategy%202018-2027_WEB.pdf#page=76


The wish list on the transport front is:

At least 500,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2030 with additional charging infrastructure to cater for planned growth

No new non-zero emission vehicles to be sold in Ireland post 2030

No NCT Cert will be issued for non-zero emission cars post 2045


Transition to low emission, including electric buses, for the urban public bus fleet with no diesel only buses purchased from 1 July 2019

Conversion of Moneypoint electricity generation plant to end the burning of coal by 2025

Conversion of peat power plants to more sustainable low-carbon technologies by 2030

Roll-out of the National Smart Energy Metering programme to commence in 2019

Stretch goals are good to have but I can't see them hitting the EV figures at all. Thats 40k+ EV's per year between now and 2030! It aint going to happen. If we hit half that we'll be doing very well.

unkel

Ban the sale of diesels from 2020, up the excise and motor tax on petrol and diesel and those goals will soon look easy targets. Government should be careful what they wish for though. What will all the fuel excise duty income be replaced with?

KCross

unkel wrote: »

Ban the sale of diesels from 2020, up the excise and motor tax on petrol and diesel and those goals will soon look easy targets. Government should be careful what they wish for though. What will all the fuel excise duty income be replaced with?

Pointless doing that if there are no EV's available to buy in large numbers.

Thats going to be a huge hurdle that we have absolutely no control over.

unkel

KCross wrote: »

Pointless doing that if there are no EV's available to buy in large numbers.

Plenty of petrols available. Would save hundreds of cancer deaths each year, maybe more if there were no more diesels.

unkel

unkel wrote: »

What will all the fuel excise duty income be replaced with?

Tolls. Higher Motor tax, 500 Euro NCT test per year etc. Higher levys on electric bills masked as "carbon tax"

You name it , they can do it.

They could even have a "save the planet" levy on Insurance.

duffman3833

No NCT Cert will be issued for non-zero emission cars post 2045

so this means the days of classic cars will be gone, if they cant get nct, cant drive them ... legally anyway

KCross

duffman3833 wrote: »

so this means the days of classic cars will be gone, if they cant get nct, cant drive them ... legally anyway

There would have to be an exemption for "classic cars".


This whole plan is just a wish list anyway. I don't see much of it actually happening in these timeframes. Its a bit of Govt spin as far as I can see.

duffman3833

KCross wrote: »

There would have to be an exemption for "classic cars".


This whole plan is just a wish list anyway. I don't see much of it actually happening in these timeframes. Its a bit of Govt spin as far as I can see.

every car by then will be classified as classic :P

Vronsky

unkel wrote: »

Ban the sale of diesels from 2020, up the excise and motor tax on petrol and diesel and those goals will soon look easy targets. Government should be careful what they wish for though. What will all the fuel excise duty income be replaced with?

Banning the sale of diesels without suitable alternatives readily available would set Irelands emission goals backwards, making it even less likely that we would reach out CO2 goals.

The whole point of encouraging diesel adoption was to reduce CO2 emissions.

liamog

I think 2030 target of 500,000 is pretty soft.

An EV bought today is cheaper over a 5 year period than a similar size / spec ICE.
By 2023 VW predict that EV purchase price will reach parity. That means that from 2023 onwards an EV is cheaper to buy and run.

You'd be mad to not a buy an EV that is cheaper to run and cheaper to buy with the projected ranges.

KCross

Availability will be the issue. It's even more unachieveable if you have to wait until 2023 and that's a VW promise which is more worthless than this "plan"!

liamog

KCross wrote: »

Availability will be the issue. It's even more unachieveable if you have to wait until 2023 and that's a VW promise which is more worthless than this "plan"!

Not a promise, it's a prediction.

There's a great YouTube video on disruptive technology, its a bit long but well worth the watch

I don't think availability is going to be anyway near as problematic by 2025

https://youtu.be/2b3ttqYDwF0

thierry14

liamog wrote: »

Not a promise, it's a prediction.

There's a great YouTube video on disruptive technology, its a bit long but well worth the watch

I don't think availability is going to be anyway near as problematic by 2025

https://youtu.be/2b3ttqYDwF0

I have watched a lot of his videos and while pretty entertaining, he's has a lot of vested interest in what's he promoting

Real Eddie Hobbs vibe off him

I laughed at the comparison 2000+ moving parts to EV 18 moving parts screenshot below lol

People actually fall for that

Yeah an EV doesn't have doors, which has more than 18 moving parts per door alone lol

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/E7Jg1IJ68_g/maxresdefault.jpg

https://www.treehugger.com/corporate-responsibility/tony-seba-all-new-vehicles-globally-will-be-electric-2030.html

Johnboy1951

Unless replacement E-vehicles are available for nigh-on the full range of ICE vehicles, banning any form of ICE is only going to cause huge reaction, and would be guaranteed to lose votes (in a big way). It is not going to happen - political suicide!

What needs to happen is that replacement E-vehicles are available, for all forms of vehicle, at similar 'landed' prices as the equivalent ICE, then there would be little 'encouragement' needed for people to change to EV.

There is something seriously wrong with the 'landed price' of EVs presently.
Maybe that will get better as production of EVs ramps up.

At present, for the ordinary car owner, there is no compelling reason to buy an EV, and quite a number not to, including the ridiculous initial cost.

ELM327

duffman3833 wrote: »

[/INDENT]so this means the days of classic cars will be gone, if they cant get nct, cant drive them ... legally anyway

Rolling 40 year NCT exemption already in place.
The oldest car that will be affected by this is 2006.
But then due to rolling exemption in 2046 you will be legally able to drive it again. Same in 2047 for a 2007 etc.

goz83

KCross wrote: »

Pointless doing that if there are no EV's available to buy in large numbers.

Thats going to be a huge hurdle that we have absolutely no control over.

Bring back the shamrock and throw in a motor :pac:

liamog wrote: »

I think 2030 target of 500,000 is pretty soft.

An EV bought today is cheaper over a 5 year period than a similar size / spec ICE.
By 2023 VW predict that EV purchase price will reach parity. That means that from 2023 onwards an EV is cheaper to buy and run.

You'd be mad to not a buy an EV that is cheaper to run and cheaper to buy with the projected ranges.

The government don’t want to be embarrassed by not hitting ev targets again. So yes, half a mil does seem soft, but there are still supply issues.

Johnboy1951 wrote: »

There is something seriously wrong with the 'landed price' of EVs presently.
Maybe that will get better as production of EVs ramps up.

At present, for the ordinary car owner, there is no compelling reason to buy an EV, and quite a number not to, including the ridiculous initial cost.

The price is higher on ev imo because they are selling them easily enough at the higher price point. You can’t expect them to let them go for €15k when they can sell for twice that. More competition will drive thise prices down and we will see range increases with no real price increases as tech gets better.

Johnboy1951

goz83 wrote: »

...
The price is higher on ev imo because they are selling them easily enough at the higher price point. You can’t expect them to let them go for €15k when they can sell for twice that. More competition will drive thise prices down and we will see range increases with no real price increases as tech gets better.

So you believe the prices presently charged are 'rip-off'?

Whatever causes the change to 'proper pricing', people in general cannot be expected to buy into EVs until it happens.
The price as well as the body variations need to be brought into line with ICE vehicles for a substantial movement to EVs.

goz83

Johnboy1951 wrote: »

So you believe the prices presently charged are 'rip-off'.

Whatever causes the change to 'proper pricing', people in general cannot be expected to buy into EVs until it happens.
The price as well as the body variations need to be brought into line with ICE vehicles for a substantial movement to EVs.

A rip-off? No. At least not compared to the equivalent ICE. They are being sold for a price the market is bearing, simple as that.