How mad is MAD?

Black Swan

The 2018 New Year's childish retort that my button is bigger than your button exchange between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un appears to have policy consequences. The CDC has announced that US citizens should prepare for what they might do if a nuke were exploded on American soil.

What evidence exists that suggests Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) works? Or as evolutionary biologist David Barash critiques MAD in Aeon: "Post facto arguments – especially negative ones – might be the currency of pundits, but are impossible to prove, and offer no solid ground for evaluating a counterfactual claim, conjecturing why something has not happened."

Are there any counter claims that challenge MAD? Jacek Kugler asks his class in Perspectives on War and Peace at Claremont University: Will terrorists that get nukes use them, regardless if MAD exists or not? What about mistakes that may trigger a nuclear exchange?

From a practical science standpoint, what are the potential consequences of MAD?

Capt'n Midnight

The statistics are interesting.

The UK have four submarines with ICBM's. You need four to guarantee having one on patrol all the time. One of the others would usually be tied up in deep refits and upgrades that could take years, another doing a short refit and the last one could be preparing or actually going out on patrol.

Five subs would guarantee that you have two on patrol at any one time.

The UK deterrent was based on being able to take out 75% of Moscow and one sub could do that. So they didn't buy a fifth sub.


The French also have four missile subs for similar reasons.


So in theory according to the statistics there should always be two European ICBM subs on patrol ready to deter the Russians.

In practice ... back in Feb 2009 HMS Vanguard and Le Triomphant collided forcing both to surface and return home.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Vanguard_and_Le_Triomphant_submarine_collision

Fathom

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

So in theory according to the statistics there should always be two European ICBM subs on patrol ready to deter the Russians. In practice ... back in Feb 2009 HMS Vanguard and Le Triomphant collided forcing both to surface and return home. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Vanguard_and_Le_Triomphant_submarine_collision

America has 18 Ohio class boomers. Each have 24 silos for subsurface launch. Trident II SLBMs range 7000 miles. Each has 8 reentry vehicles moving at Mach 24. Each reentry vehicle can carry up to 475 kiloton nuke warhead. Not sure what other classes US has afloat. Of course smaller cruise missile sub-launched vehicles are prolific, as are surface ship launched.

knucklehead6

Fathom wrote: »

America has 18 Ohio class boomers. Each have 24 silos for subsurface launch. Trident II SLBMs range 7000 miles. Each has 8 reentry vehicles moving at Mach 24. Each reentry vehicle can carry up to 475 kiloton nuke warhead. Not sure what other classes US has afloat. Of course smaller cruise missile sub-launched vehicles are prolific, as are surface ship launched.

In terms of SSBN's, none so far.

Fathom

One Ohio class could destroy most small nations.