Festival - Day 1 - Predictions

RivetingRoger

Rogers Guide to Cheltenham 2018


Day 1 Tuesday 13/03/18


Supreme Novices
Next Destination likely to go off fav on the day, presuming Samcro swerves. Not sold on this horse myself and all things being well, I will back Elliots classy Mengli Khan, @6/1, forgiving his moment of madness last day out. Previous runs justify the faith for me. Sharjah was shaping well in the same race until coming down one out and remains one to consider. WPM’s Getabird is an interesting entry at a decent price. Of the outsiders Le Richbourg has class in abundance and at 25/1 could be a decent ew bet
Arkle Chase
This is Footpads race to lose, simple as that. A sensation since switching to the larger obstacles, Footpad has the look of a young Vautour. High praise indeed. Jumps like a stag and gains at almost every fence over opponents landing in full throttle. Only a fall can beat him for me. On the off chance something does go wrong, Henry De Bromhead’s exciting Petit Mouchoir should be there to pick up the pieces. At a price former course winner Diego Charmil at 33/1 looks a good ew bet, if it runs in this race. Last weekends winner Demi Sange also warrants a mention.

Ultima Chase
The first big Handicap of the festival is wide open at the moment. Recent winner Anibale fly looks a good price @10/1. WPM may send Total Recall however the talk seems to be he will miss the week and be kept for Aintree. Nicky Henderson’s Beware the Bear disappointed at Chepstow in the Welsh National so perhaps old favourite and course winner Mall Dini might be worth a punt at 16/1. Selection on all known form however goes to ANIBALE FLY

Champion Hurdle
There is no escaping it, this race is all about will he or won’t’ he! Will Faugheen run. If the answer is no, this race looks a procession for the excellent Beavau D’air. Some other possible runners deserve a mention, Melon has talent but has shown us nothing so far to say he could possibly beat Nicky’s superstar. Defil De Seuil is an interesting one, a very impressive winner here last year who has not had a great start to the season but retains the talent to compete. If Yorkhll runs here, all bets are off, but assuming it does not, and FAUGHEEN does, my money is on the macchhhiiinnneeee….



OLBG Mares Hurdle
No need to over analyse this race. Barring a fall or a switch to another race, APPLES JADE win this hands down. In the unlikely event something happens, Lets Dance seems best placed to pick up the scraps, although there has been a lot of talk about Rich Ricci’s Benie Des Dieux, but her participation probably depends on the health of the old warrior Vroum Vroum Mag, who after last year’s exertions and this year’s seeming disappearance, is hard to fancy if she does run

National Hunt Chase
This is Presenting Percy V Monalee. If recent runs are anything to go by, Davy won’t have to think too hard about which one to ride. PRESENTING PERCY was simply class in winning over a new longer distance last time out and looks all out a handicap winner at the festival again this year. Without the hassle of the BHA Handicapper on their case this year, I find it very hard to make a case for Monalee beating Percy. At a price, Jury Duty, currently 10/1 is worth a look ew.

Close Bros Handicap Chase
Al Boum Photo in this one for me. Not much to go on really, a disappointing run last time out when falling as fav in Limerick, however 3 wins in previous 6 starts points to a decent handicap chaser. Hells Kitchen will go off as fav but its hard to justify his 6/1 price compared to Al Boum Photo’s 10/1. Will be interesting to see jockeys choices and how they are treated by the handicapper. Provisional fancy for AL BOUM PHOTO but with no real conviction.

RivetingRoger

I know i know its ages away....i know this is all completely pointless when half of them might not turn up....
But it was a bit of craic, and its only for ****s and giggles anyways!
Just pretending its tomorrow....
Dont take it seriously...
I know ye wont anyways!

posturingpat

Anibale fly will probably have a rating of about 163(159 here) for any handicap he's entered in. Is there an upper limit of 155 in the Ultima or is it open? Either way i think handicap's are almost certainly out of the question ,Punchestown Gold cup perhaps on the agenda?

culline

Clearly getting festival fever already RR! Like those picks. Both Percy and Monalee look to be aimed at the RSA

handsfree2

I always try to keep an open mind until the week running up to the festival. I'll try to give a weighting to spring form.

The one I think is interesting for day one is coo star sivola in the novice handicap chase.

handsfree2

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Rogers Guide to Cheltenham 2018


Day 1 Tuesday 13/03/18


Close Bros Handicap Chase
Al Boum Photo in this one for me. Not much to go on really, a disappointing run last time out when falling as fav in Limerick, however 3 wins in previous 6 starts points to a decent handicap chaser. Hells Kitchen will go off as fav but its hard to justify his 6/1 price compared to Al Boum Photo’s 10/1. Will be interesting to see jockeys choices and how they are treated by the handicapper. Provisional fancy for AL BOUM PHOTO but with no real conviction.

I don't think that it was a disappointing run from Al boum photo, just a disappointing fall when he had the race won. I thought that is a good level of form too.

Massimo Tara

If the cap fits for the supreme is my fancy.

lemush

Anibale Flys days in handicaps are over. Next Destination and Monalee will not run in the the races mentioned either.

I'm hoping Al Boum Photo goes to the JLT

madmoose

Al Boum will go the JLT. I’d be all over Jury Duty for the 4 miler.

JagoMoon

The National Hunt Chase is an amateur race so Davy wouldn't ride Percy if that's the race they go for. Looks to have the class for the RSA and with Davy on board would surely go close.

dobman88

Wasn't faugheen ruled out of Cheltenham a week ago?

Gavin "shels"

dobman88 wrote: »

Wasn't faugheen ruled out of Cheltenham a week ago?

https://www.rte.ie/sport/racing/2018/0109/932056-irish-champion-hurdle-back-on-radar-for-faugheen/

RivetingRoger

Faugheen still in running

Take what I said about NH Chase and transfer it word for word to the RSA

To be honest lads, I had an hour to kill, went throught the NRNB odds for each race and went with that

Didnt go too deep into it

I just cant wait!!

dobman88

Gavin "shels" wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/sport/racing/2018/0109/932056-irish-champion-hurdle-back-on-radar-for-faugheen/

Thanks. Thought it was rules out i read. Got it completely the wrong way round

sweeneed

Supreme Novices
Syar or Getabird if he goes fo rthis. liked debuchet until i seen him jump over xmas!

Arkle Chase
Footpad all the way. petit mouchoir ew or reverse forecast

Ultima Chase
i miss Holywell for this one!! must see the weights but maybe mala beach or mall dini.


Champion Hurdle
hoping its all a big stroke and faugheen is fine. ill go for him with the heart and better price now but the 10 year old stat always worries me. was all over the fly few years ago age 10 and he fairly flopped although ran cracker again aged 11.


OLBG Mares Hurdle
ill chance lets dance for some antepost value and maybe apples jade will go stayers.

National Hunt Chase
hard to know who wil run here. defo presenting percy if not in the RSA. like black corton, battleford from whats listed


Close Bros Handicap Chase
ballyandy, any second now..... again very little studying done here and like to see weights

carq

Who tipped up labaik around this time last year here? Got dogs abuse for it at the time!

dk6dk6

Anyone any views on where they think Espoir Dallen will run, the Triumph seems most likely but also entered in the Fred Winter.

Been very impressed with this horse's recent runs and think there's a lot more to come.

posturingpat

carq wrote: »

Who tipped up labaik around this time last year here? Got dogs abuse for it at the time!

Can't remember who it was but I knowll i was one of the doubters.
I remember enquiring with someone I know in Elliott's what would be the best novice they had that hadn't shown their hand and I think they gave me someone like Balthazar D'allier. Not much heard of him since.

Gavin "shels"

carq wrote: »

Who tipped up labaik around this time last year here? Got dogs abuse for it at the time!

https://www.boards.ie/search/submit/?thread=2057664926&sort=oldest&date_to=&date_from=&query=labaik

oPATCHo

:-)

oPATCHo

My Antepost book (those still running) with a few selections/thoughts thrown in:

Supreme
If The Cap Fits @ 80's and 40's. Really like the profile of this horse at the start of the season, however I wanted to see him run at cheltenham prior to festival and also winning a graded race over hurdles. Time is running out along with options now, so I'm slightly concerned that the supreme will be is 'blow out in graded company' before heading to Aintree and winning the novice hurdle there

Next Destination @ 24's, think Mullins has really struggled this year. Annamix was his star for this. Think he may bring ND back down to 2 miles - mullins bingo!

Ballymore
Samcro. No surprise here... this horse could be something special. No bet yet, expecting to throw him into doubles and treble once final decs are in

Arkle
Footpad looks impressive, but he's a notch behind the likes of Altior and UDS. Field looks very week outside the top three of betting. 

Champion Hurdle
Buevur D'Air will win this. Huge ask from Faugheen now. 

Queen Mother
Already have Altior backed in a few acca's but I really dont like the fact he's missed the best part of the season. It's a huge negative! This could be a Dodging Bullets year, with the one who has raced in and won the key trials - my brain is saying Politologue

Stayers
A very interesting renewal. Haven't got a clue yet on this one

Gold Cup
Been in this game for 7 years, never back a winner in the Gold Cup :'( ..... so.... it's probably worth laying these below :D

In terms of antepost bets, I have.... 
Clan Des Obeaux at 260, thinking that he could be a Denman this season :ermm: I'm surprised he's in initial entries given the route Nichols has taken him, he's best at Newbury and maybe at a lower level so will keep him in my notebook for next season

Backed Road To Respect at 85's at start of season, nearly threw away the betting slip after losing out to Outlander. Not sure how to take the Lexus form. Not on for huge money tbh

Backed Bachasson at 100, a fun bet

Might Bite is the worthy favourite, but there are still so many questions at this stage. He's a RSA winner, a KG winner and appears to be enjoying the game. With the likes of Sizing John underperforming and Thistlecrack being injured, you'd think this is his for the taking. The jokers in the pack, Douvan and Yorkhill, were just that... jokers. Then I look at the rest of the field, I like Whisper and Disco to place at decent prices, but the rest lack the quality needed here. Might Bite is going to break most of a mile out, those trying to keep up with the pace will be punished. Hence why I like Whispers chances here, Davy will do exactly what he did in the RSA and run his own race and try and pick up the pieces. However, Might Bite has got rid of those quirks from last season.

Remember, I'm 0 from 7 Gold Cups!!!


Tracking
Blow By Blow - switched yards, and has been running stinkers since! Has ability based on his bumper form, has he lost it or will we see his bowl up at a huge price

I have a few nice AP bets still running, although I've been better this year with the volume of AP bets I say up to 35% of them are already down.

WickIow Brave

carq wrote: »

Who tipped up labaik around this time last year here? Got dogs abuse for it at the time!

Twas Gringo who put him up. Said there was a novice at Elliott's that used to destroy Death Duty at home. Funnily enough, I heard Keith Donoghue say a few months back that he rode Labaik in a piece of work against Death Duty before the Grade 1 at Naas last year (one Next Destination won last week) where he cantered all over Death Duty and he said he was absolutely certain Labaik would win if he jumped off. Remember now Death Duty went off odds on for this race. Alas Labaik dug his toes in that day but he proved Keith and Gringo to be spot on at Cheltenham. Gas!

WickIow Brave

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Twas Gringo who put him up. Said there was a novice at Elliott's that used to destroy Death Duty at home. Funnily enough, I heard Keith Donoghue say a few months back that he rode Labaik in a piece of work against Death Duty before the Grade 1 at Naas last year (one Next Destination won last week) where he cantered all over Death Duty and he said he was absolutely certain Labaik would win if he jumped off. Remember now Death Duty went off odds on for this race. Alas Labaik dug his toes in that day but he proved Keith and Gringo to be spot on at Cheltenham. Gas!

Sorry it wasn't the Grade 1 at Naas, it was actually the Grade 2 at Navan that Death Duty won. Invitation Only went off even money fav for that race which is interesting looking back.

Earendil

carq wrote: »

Who tipped up labaik around this time last year here? Got dogs abuse for it at the time!

Was Gringo. I asked him to marry me at 1.40PM on 14/03/2017 :pac:

handsfree2

It's not a day one fancy but I was very taken with we have a dreams run in chepstown. He looked like he hated the ground but won it stylishly against a pretty good benchmark in Sussex Ranger.

Slattsy

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Twas Gringo who put him up. Said there was a novice at Elliott's that used to destroy Death Duty at home. Funnily enough, I heard Keith Donoghue say a few months back that he rode Labaik in a piece of work against Death Duty before the Grade 1 at Naas last year (one Next Destination won last week) where he cantered all over Death Duty and he said he was absolutely certain Labaik would win if he jumped off. Remember now Death Duty went off odds on for this race. Alas Labaik dug his toes in that day but he proved Keith and Gringo to be spot on at Cheltenham. Gas!

And we'll never hear the end of !!

RivetingRoger

Faugheen out to 8/1 on boyles for CH
Yorkhill into 8/1 for same race

Does someone know something.............

(personally, if he runs, 8/1 for me on the machine is a HUGE price)

piplip87

Had my biggest ever bet on the Machine NRNB EW this morning. I think he could bounce back. If he improves as much again since His last run he should be there or there abouts. BD did not look too impressive at the weekend.

I have Getabird done since before his Christmas run for supreme. 16/1 EW and 16//1 win. I personally think he is the best novice hurdler in Ireland at the minute. Samcro is good but looks better at the longer trip. Ellitott could have a serious chaser on his handa

danganabu

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Faugheen out to 8/1 on boyles for CH
Yorkhill into 8/1 for same race

Does someone know something.............

(personally, if he runs, 8/1 for me on the machine is a HUGE price)

Boyles are not NRNB, wouldn't touch it, the 7/1 NRNB is a mare more secure bet.

RivetingRoger

danganabu wrote: »

Boyles are not NRNB, wouldn't touch it, the 7/1 NRNB is a mare more secure bet.

Where is he 7/1 nrnb?
I dont do online, i do all my bets in shop and only in shop

Surely the CH is the only race he runs in, presuming of course he runs. Nothing anyone has said indicates he wont run tho

The closer we get to the week itself the more bullish i am that the machine will shock em all!!

posturingpat

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Where is he 7/1 nrnb?
I dont do online, i do all my bets in shop and only in shop

Surely the CH is the only race he runs in, presuming of course he runs. Nothing anyone has said indicates he wont run tho

The closer we get to the week itself the more bullish i am that the machine will shock em all!!

Whatever about thinking he's worth an e/w bet at the prices(personally expect him not to run or could well pull up) but to say the closer we get the more bullish you are seems quite mad.
It'd fairly bring the house down though.

longshotvalue

A horse called Born Survivor has a superb chance in that Close bothers yoke. Its one for the day about 25/1 5 places etc.

madmoose

aidankkk wrote: »

A horse called Born Survivor has a superb chance in that Close bothers yoke. Its one for the day about 25/1 5 places etc.

The one i fancy, ran well in the martin pipe last year like Tully East had done and his first chase win at Wetherby was impressive.

longshotvalue

madmoose wrote: »

The one i fancy, ran well in the martin pipe last year like Tully East had done and his first chase win at Haydock was impressive.

and his second run was against very good opposition on crap ground. He is defiantly a better chaser than hurdler as he really can jump. He is probably going of a lower mark that his pipe run last year. Can't wait to see what price can be got on the day. Hopeful 20/1 and above

madmoose

Id chance 20/1 nrnb now online as i think on the day he could be 12/1 or below.

longshotvalue

madmoose wrote: »

Id chance 20/1 nrnb now online as i think on the day he could be 12/1 or below.

You could be right, stable never value really.. Might go for it shortly.