Long term trends for beef,dairy tillage etc

K.G.

Im picking a vibe on alot of threads that alot of people think that dairying is in a bubble thats all going to end badly.i on the other hand think beef will never be profitable in ireland due to theprocessing structure and tillage in ireland is just plain uncompetitve with other regions in the world.alot of people here are great "googlers" and im wondering what sort of stuff you have seen on like thirty year trends for different industries in terms of price ,geographical spread,demand

blue5000

The only time in the last century when there was a major re-distribution of wealth from the super rich to the rest of us was during and for a few years after WWII.

patsy_mccabe

If you want to see a trend, watch closely what Trump is actually doing, as opposed to what he actually says. Only yesterday he changed the tax laws making it favourable for U.S. companies to stay at home and do business. He's slowly bringing life back into middle America. America's gain is the world's economy loss.

yosemitesam1

The one problem with looking at long term trends for dairy is that they're meaningless until the EU finally stops wasting money supporting prices.
I think the days of being able to produce as much as you want and sell on at a profit are fading in all sectors

20silkcut

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

If you want to see a trend, watch closely what Trump is actually doing, as opposed to what he actually says. Only yesterday he changed the tax laws making it favourable for U.S. companies to stay at home and do business. He's slowly bringing life back into middle America. America's gain is the world's economy loss.

If the US goes down the protectionist route then it will be their economy that shrinks.
Take their decision to put a 300% tariff on bombardier aircraft. There was the British and Canadian tax payers subsidizing cheap air planes for American companies and what do they do but put them beyond the reach of American companies. Madness!! The US is f*cked if it keeps making decisions like that.
I think long term specialization will increase. With Russia getting on its feet with grain production and signs that Argentina is abandoning protectionism and getting its house in order ( it was once one of the worlds wealthiest nations) I can see trade deals being done that will kill off beef and grain in many countries but increase further in dairy especially here in Ireland.

davidk1394

Ireland can compete world wide with dairy production, a lot like NZ . Grass can be grown cheaply and have long grazing seasons with a fairly temperate climate and steady rain fall. It can grow forestry very well also. On the beef side of things we can grow good silage and forage crops but the majority of feed stuffs are imported i.e soya meal, this makes the cost of production increase. We produce excellent beef but unfortunately we are not paid fairly for it. Just enough to keep people in the game a lot like sheep. Unfortunately tillage will be a non runner due to the mild climate, cost of production and economies of scale. Tillage crops have a lot of diseases and pests factors. Also our plough based model should be thrown out the window in order for tillage farmers to compete with their Russian,American or Australian counter parts.

In the coming years I see a lot of Tipp,Cork,Waterford going all for dairy. Wexford,Carlow,Kildare,Dublin and Louth mainly tillage and vegetables. North of the Shannon will remain mainly part time dry stock and forestry becoming a popular option for farmers up that way also. Going by the fodder crisis at the moment there will unfortunately become all the more familiar and will mean farming will not be viable. That's just my 2 cents on the matter.

Bass Reeves

I would not be too negative about beef. Young lad in Australia was telling me they get 5 euro(7.5 aussie$)/kg for grass fedbeef. 4 grass fed burgers 18 Australian dollar's. Are we missing the boat. It is well paid for in the US as well

Icelandicseige

I was going to start a new trend on this but Il join it here instead. I reckon dairy will get more poplular and beef will stay in around the same only more lads that do it heavily stocked part time will drop down to just keeping a few cows with no pressure on them. Which should free up land for the young farmers that are not afraid to milk and are business minded.
Some people habe a very negative opinion of dairy farmers to milk the Cows twice a day is a drain and your to tied down yet they plan on working full time jobs and part time farming aswell. I don't see benefits there. At least when dairy farming you are free to do what you like outside of milking times. In full time work your stuck there 9-5 5 days a week. It depends on what way you look at things I suppose but if you have any family help at all I think dairying is very hard to beat for profitability and lifestyle wise.

Timmaay

Agreed fully ice. Good relief milker is the main thing you need, and give him the likes of 2 milkings a week outside of calving, regardless of if your around or not. That's you down to 6 days a week already. But had to juggle the dairy farm and basically a full time job up and down to ucd finishing up the PhD for 18 months or so a few years back, now that was utter hell ha.

Upstream

Long term, some trends need to be reversed. Too much margin outside production. Four legs on the stool - production, processing, transport and selling. Farmers would be better with at least three instead of one. Need to take back control.

I'm going to try and sell direct, at least one animal for beef next year. Baby steps. Will see what happens...

Grueller

Icelandicseige wrote: »

I was going to start a new trend on this but Il join it here instead. I reckon dairy will get more poplular and beef will stay in around the same only more lads that do it heavily stocked part time will drop down to just keeping a few cows with no pressure on them. Which should free up land for the young farmers that are not afraid to milk and are business minded.
Some people habe a very negative opinion of dairy farmers to milk the Cows twice a day is a drain and your to tied down yet they plan on working full time jobs and part time farming aswell. I don't see benefits there. At least when dairy farming you are free to do what you like outside of milking times. In full time work your stuck there 9-5 5 days a week. It depends on what way you look at things I suppose but if you have any family help at all I think dairying is very hard to beat for profitability and lifestyle wise.

Look at what the part time farmers earn outside the gate. Many around here would need 150 cows to beat their paye income.

wrangler

Icelandicseige wrote: »

I was going to start a new trend on this but Il join it here instead. I reckon dairy will get more poplular and beef will stay in around the same only more lads that do it heavily stocked part time will drop down to just keeping a few cows with no pressure on them. Which should free up land for the young farmers that are not afraid to milk and are business minded.
Some people habe a very negative opinion of dairy farmers to milk the Cows twice a day is a drain and your to tied down yet they plan on working full time jobs and part time farming aswell. I don't see benefits there. At least when dairy farming you are free to do what you like outside of milking times. In full time work your stuck there 9-5 5 days a week. It depends on what way you look at things I suppose but if you have any family help at all I think dairying is very hard to beat for profitability and lifestyle wise.

I'd agree, I was in a dairy farmers yard yesterday and there was three working in the yard and there was 120 cows.....if you have no ambition for expansion it must be some money spinner.
Just edited to say the relief milker wasn't there at the time, before someone else says it

Icelandicseige

Timmaay wrote: »

Agreed fully ice. Good relief milker is the main thing you need, and give him the likes of 2 milkings a week outside of calving, regardless of if your around or not. That's you down to 6 days a week already. But had to juggle the dairy farm and basically a full time job up and down to ucd finishing up the PhD for 18 months or so a few years back, now that was utter hell ha.

Yes it's very important to keep the relief milker happy. I was working in a place one time that said was going to give me work regularly. Turns out he wasn't that interested until he wanted to go on holidays and a weekend off the odd time and then expected you to hoop on a knot when he called. The biggest thing some of farmers lack is empaty or just common consideration for anyone other than themselves.
Fair play getting a PHD. Shouldn't you be in one of those jobs with your feet up on the desk shouting 'show me the money' ..!

kk.man

From an early age this debate of the demise of farming was a well worn track. Production systems and models change but there will always be farmers in this country.

patsy_mccabe

Food, glorious food.