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Do North Atlantic temps in Spring dictact summer rain levels?

  • 20-12-2017 12:29pm
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭

    Interesting piece on the BBC radio this morning about sea temperatures in Spring and the correlation with how wet or dry the summer might be.

    Essentially there seems to be a link which shows warmer water allows a drier summer in north west Europe.

    Story here
    A connection between springtime sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and weather patterns over the East Atlantic during summer months was established by researchers at the University of Reading.

    The scientists said they have found a "strong link" between the sea temperature in March and April and the position of the jet stream in July and August.

    The jet stream, a high-altitude ribbon of high-speed winds, governs the direction of storms as they travel across the Atlantic.

    Current seasonal models for weather over Europe struggle to make reliable long-range forecasts, particularly for rainfall.

    In a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, the team said the results have an "immediate application to empirical forecasts of summer rainfall for the United Kingdom, Ireland and northern France".

    University of Reading climate/weather blog here, nothing up yet but some interesting reading there.