Battery price progression - Future EVs

liamog

I posted this in the BIK thread.

But I figure the analysis deserves it's own discussion.
Since 2010 EV Battery Costs are estimated to have dropped by 20% per year. Starting with the 2010 $1000/kWh cost and using 80% of that cost each subsequent year we can see how battery sizes have followed a logical progression. I've extrapolated the figures up to 2020.

The battery costs are all based roughly on the estimated market price.
Hopefully this illustrates the reason why I believe that 60&75kWh cars will be available sooner than most people think.

The info referring to battery costs detailed the per pack cost rather than per cell, so it may look different to some other figures you've seen.

Year | Cost Per kWh | Cars
2010 | $1,000.00 | i-MiEV 16kWh ($16,000)
2011 | $800.00 | Leaf 24kWh ($19,200) (Actual Battery Cost $375/kWh ($9000))
2012 | $640.00 | Zoe 22kWh ($14,080)
2013 | $512.00 | i3 22kWh ($11,264)
2014 | $409.60 |
2015 | $327.68 | eGolf 24.2kWh ($7,929)
2016 | $262.14 | Leaf 30kWh ($7864), Zoe 41kWh ($10,747), Ioniq 28kWh ($7,339)
2017 | $209.72 | eGolf 35.8kWh ($7,507), Bolt 60kWh ($12,583), i3 33kWh ($6,920)
2018 | $167.77 | Hypothetical 47.7kWh ($8,000)
2019 | $134.22 | Hypothetical 59.6kWh ($8,000)
2020 | $107.37 | Hypothetical 74.5kWh ($8,000)

KCross

There might be some other variables which come into play as well which is, as demand rises and the mining companies etc can't keep up that the reductions you forecast wont be achieved. Obviously there is a point where it wont drop anymore. Where that point is, is unknown. It might even rise!

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-hyundai-motor-batteries/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-to-steady-by-2020-hyundai-motor-idUKKBN1E631G

Hyundai reckons 2020 is a key year for it to level off, but who knows really. The companies who have their own battery manufacturing capability (Tesla mainly) are the ones well placed to follow your trajectory. Others might not find it so easy deliver 60kWh+ EV's.

KCross

Another variable also is that the cars are currently govt subsidised around the world. Once those large subsidies are removed it will eat into some of the gains got from cheaper battery manufacturing.

€10k subsidy here. That would set your goal back quite a bit if that was removed.

liamog

I'd expect battery sizes to progress to 75kWh. That's 420km at 18kWh/100km.
At that point range is much less of a compromise.

As the batteries increase, vehicle sales will increase due to the increased practicality.
Economies of scale start to kick in on the electric drivetrain and motor. The retooling costs are already sunk in.

Analysts have been continuously outpaced by the Li-Ion forecasts. The price has dropped quicker than expected, and cars seem to be regularly at the $8,000 pack level.

Many people believe $100/kWh is the tipping point. It probably makes sense that Hyundai expect prices to level off at the same time as they reach that point.

Water John

Let's christen this; Liamog's Law. 20% fall in battery COP every 12 months.
When it gets to a certain point, I expect it will need a technological leap to keep it going.

liamog

As much as I'd love the credit, it's an observation based on people who are paid much more than me to analyse the industry.

If we see a VW with a 60kWh Battery in 2019 you can all buy me a couple of rapid charges

cros13

I'd see the theoretical limit somewhere around $70/kWh for the cell price with lithium ion. Purely on the basis of the prices of the common raw materials involved and not including a margin.

Of course as technology moves on Wh/kg will increase, and often these Wh/kg increases mean an increase in capacity without an increase in raw material inputs.

thierry14

Pedro on push ev's always has good articles on this subject

http://pushevs.com/2017/10/03/battery-technology-whats-coming-soon/

NCM 811 is something he talks about alot

Reckons the the EV's of 2019 will have it

He also reckons Tesla/Panasonic have something similar almost ready, they are not sitting around while LG/Samsung etc have new products close

traco

Very interesting article, be great if it happens. I'm not sure about an affiliation with A123 as I thought they went bankrupt a few years back.

liamog

Hyundai have invested in Ionic Materials a sold state battery company.
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/07/10/hyundai-solid-state-battery-ionic-materials/?guccounter=1
Funnily enough I was watching a show on Netflix that covered their tech.

KCross

https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/motoring/motoring-news/the-reason-why-electric-cars-will-always-be-expensive/news-story/8f8d81ac872578ad665a264c91b17505

Is he right?

unkel

No. He is talking nonsense. Batteries no longer cost $250/kWh. A 100kWh "cell" as he calls it :rolleyes: doesn't cost $25,000. His second argument is that raw materials are going up in price and that cobalt is an essential material in batteries. The price of cobalt is going up alright, but it is not a huge percentage of the cost of the battery. The rising price of cobalt is not keeping battery prices the same as they were 2 years ago. Battery costs are coming down. And you don't have to use cobalt, Tesla are moving away from it at the moment. So he is doubly wrong there too.

Sounds like Klaus Frölich (head of development at BMW for the last 4 years and a member of the board) is trying to defend why BMW has gotten as far behind in EV tech and development as they have, after making a promising start years ago. He doesn't fool me. He failed at his job.

KCross

unkel wrote: »

No. He is talking nonsense. Batteries no longer cost $250/kWh. A 100kWh "cell" as he calls it :rolleyes: doesn't cost $25,000. His second argument is that raw materials are going up in price and that cobalt is an essential material in batteries. The price of cobalt is going up alright, but it is not a huge percentage of the cost of the battery. The rising price of cobalt is not keeping battery prices the same as they were 2 years ago. Battery costs are coming down. And you don't have to use cobalt, Tesla are moving away from it at the moment. So he is doubly wrong there too.

Sounds like Klaus Frölich (head of development at BMW for the last 4 years and a member of the board) is trying to defend why BMW has gotten as far behind in EV tech and development as they have, after making a promising start years ago. He doesn't fool me. He failed at his job.

Tesla who would be the leaders were supposedly at $190/kWh in 2016. Expected to be closer to $100/kWh by the end of this year, pending commodity prices.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/09/100-kwh-tesla-battery-cells-this-year-100-kwh-tesla-battery-packs-in-2020/


So, while I agree with you in general I think there is some truth to what he says as well in that as adoption starts to ramp up, and lets be honest we are a few years away from that yet, commodity prices will start to bite (not just cobalt but all the elements required). That nice downward trajectory in pack costs will start to level out quickly.

And its not just BMW saying it, Hyundai have said it too, as per an earlier post I made on this thread, and they at least are bulding thousands of EV's so not in the same boat as BMW at all...
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-hyundai-motor-batteries/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-to-steady-by-2020-hyundai-motor-idUKKBN1E631G

cros13

There is a floor to battery pricing imposed by commodity prices, but that floor in my estimation is currently around the $70-80/kWh mark for most chemistries.
So that would be a $70/kWh cell cost for raw materials excluding manufacturing and transport.

Many of the supply chains for the raw materials are not exactly as efficient they could be yet, some of raw materials are secondary outputs of other mining and could meet the demands of a big EV market if they were primary targets (and ease pricing as the current supply is inflexible).
Reprocessing of old mining waste to recover those products is low hanging fruit, reopening of old mines like glencore katanga and the nickel/cobalt project in spain are also options.

Aluminium is the biggest input for almost all cells ~1/4 of the cell by weight
Some other common inputs like copper, manganese, silicon, phosphorus where supply is not really a concern given the quantities
Lithium supply - not a big concern, fairly minor proportion of the cell by weight (3-6%), plenty of supply
Spherical Graphite - supply is constricted not by the raw material but by processing plants
Cobalt - everyone is going low-cobalt or no-cobalt, new supply coming on-line
Some common inputs like industrial acids / solvents / alcohols / plastics / CO2 / Nitrogen / Ethylene - again supply not a concern for the quantities
Nickel - supply constrained by mining, if the commodity price goes up and the demand is there quantity is not and issue

Some of the inputs for manufacturing can be reused on-site with very low losses.
Nickel and Spherical Graphite are the immediate supply problem short to medium term. In the long term both of those are solvable.

unkel

KCross wrote: »

TI think there is some truth to what he says as well in that as adoption starts to ramp up, and lets be honest we are a few years away from that yet, commodity prices will start to bite (not just cobalt but all the elements required). That nice downward trajectory in pack costs will start to level out quickly.

Huge difference between $100 and $250 though. Even if batteries will never get cheaper than $100, we can live with that. It means a 40kWh battery in an economy EV will cost $4,000. That's fine.

KCross

unkel wrote: »

KCross wrote: »

TI think there is some truth to what he says as well in that as adoption starts to ramp up, and lets be honest we are a few years away from that yet, commodity prices will start to bite (not just cobalt but all the elements required). That nice downward trajectory in pack costs will start to level out quickly.

Huge difference between $100 and $250 though. Even if batteries will never get cheaper than $100, we can live with that. It means a 40kWh battery in an economy EV will cost $4,000. That's fine.

What does an ICE and its gubbins cost to manufacture in say a 1.4TSi?

unkel

I'm guessing here, but I'd say for most mass manufacturers it will still be cheaper to produce an economy family size diesel car than an economy EV when the battery costs $4k, given the current economies of scale of ICE production

liamog

The cost of engines will also go up, the 2021 target is 95g CO2/km which equates to 4.1l/100km for petrol and 3.6l/100km for diesel.

Batteries going down, engines going up. That's where we'll start to see equality of pricing.

KCross

cros13 wrote: »

There is a floor to battery pricing imposed by commodity prices, but that floor in my estimation is currently around the $70-80/kWh mark for most chemistries.
So that would be a $70/kWh cell cost for raw materials excluding manufacturing and transport.

Which is roughly what Tesla have said they expect to achieve this year... i.e. a $100/kWh pack price.

Are you saying then that we are close to the floor of battery pricing?

The argument usually is that when it scales up that prices drop. I dont think that applies from this point forward as the commodity prices are not going down and Tesla is already at a decent scale for Gigafactory 1.

unkel wrote: »

I'm guessing here, but I'd say for most mass manufacturers it will still be cheaper to produce an economy family size diesel car than an economy EV when the battery costs $4k, given the current economies of scale of ICE production

Well, in that case you agree with Frolich!

What he said was
“No, no, no,” is Klaus Frölich’s reply when asked if EVs will ever equal the prices of equivalent conventional cars. “Never.”


Arent you saying much the same thing?

He said batteries cost from $170/kWh which is where Tesla were a year or two ago so he's not completely off the mark and bear in mind that Tesla have the best prices. BMW are probably paying more than Tesla are per kWh.

I still wouldnt completely dismiss what he has said. There is probably an element of "excuse" built into it too, as you said.


And just to add that it isnt all about the battery costing less than an engine. Obviously its the reduction in emissions, reduced servicing, reduced running costs etc that all have to be taken into account. So, even if an EV is more expensive its still worth paying the extra from a TCO perspective. The discussion is how far away are we from the floor of battery pricing?

KCross

liamog wrote: »

The cost of engines will also go up, the 2021 target is 95g CO2/km which equates to 4.1l/100km for petrol and 3.6l/100km for diesel.

Batteries going down, engines going up. That's where we'll start to see equality of pricing.

Good point. That is why some manufacturers have already abandoned diesel because it was just too expensive to deliver an engine to meet the new standards.

unkel

KCross wrote: »

Well, in that case you agree with Frolich!

Nonsense

I can see how batteries might not going to be a lot cheaper in the next few years, but a cost of $25k for a battery pack as Frölich mentions, is just bull. Apart from the element of "excuse" there is also a strong whiff of unwillingness to move into the future coming from his remarks. He is old, he has been with BMW for over 30 years, failing miserably in his current role. Perhaps he should retire.

KCross

unkel wrote: »

I can see how batteries might not going to be a lot cheaper in the next few years, but a cost of $25k for a battery pack as Frölich mentions, is just bull.

tbf, that was for a 100kWh pack using the upper limits of his pack price($250). Presumably it was costing that not that long ago (2-3yrs ago)

Its down from that now but still a significant sum at $170/kWh (which was his lower range). Even for Tesla with their projected $100/kWh pack price for this year it would cost $10k and thats best case because they dont tend to hit their promises.


Are there any up to date figures for pack prices from other manufacturers?
LG Chem, SDI etc? It would be good to see their up to date figures.

unkel

KCross wrote: »

tbf, that was for a 100kWh pack using the upper limits of his pack price($250). Presumably it was costing that not that long ago (2-3yrs ago)

The article is from this week and he is talking about today / the near future. Not about prices from 2-3 years ago. Mentioning the $25k figure and stating “You can produce whole cars, only with the cost of the battery,” (in other words - the battery alone costs more than the total cost we can make a whole ICE car for) just makes him look silly and tbh, a dinosaur. The head of technical development of BMW should not come over as a dinosaur, time for Klaus to retire.

KCross

unkel wrote: »

The article is from this week and he is talking about today / the near future. Not about prices from 2-3 years ago. Mentioning the $25k figure just makes him look silly.

I dont think its that silly at all. He gave a range, not an absolute figure. He said

“It’s very simple,” says Frölich. In EVs with 90 to 100kWh battery packs, the cell cost alone will be $17,000 to $25,000.

So, he is giving a range from $17k to $25k for a 100kWh pack. Obviously that depends on who you are buying it from and what bargaining power you have.

The $17k figure seems accurate and up to date to me (based on Tesla data) and if you dont have a strong position to buy in bulk them maybe they are still 250 for some manufacturers.

Unless we get some additional data from the car and battery manufacturers I dont think his figures are too far out.

unkel

It's his whole attitude that smells. Not just his figures. What full EV BMW is in the pipeline (with a 100kWh battery) for which the battery alone costs more than the whole car would cost if it was an ICE?

Not sure what you are trying to defend here, KCross

KCross

unkel wrote: »

It's his whole attitude that smells. Not just his figures. What full EV BMW is in the pipeline (with a 100kWh battery) for which the battery alone costs more than the whole car would cost if it was an ICE?

Not sure what you are trying to defend here, KCross

Certainly not trying to defend him or BMW, who have not really pushed EV's forward at all. The i3 might be a nice car to drive but its so quirky it was never meant to sell in large volume. They could/should have done much more by now.

If Tesla survive (thats up in the air!), BMW could be in trouble.


The context of what I'm "defending" is in the title of the thread. Are we at (or close) to the floor price for battery packs and I'm using his figures, Tesla's figures and the Hyundai guy as a point to debate with.

I dont really know if the price is going to significantly drop more or not. Maybe it will. Just throwing those figures/articles out there for informed debate!

unkel

KCross wrote: »

I dont really know if the price is going to significantly drop more or not.

Even if they don't for the next few years, who cares? $100 per kWh is fine, that won't stand in the way of mass EV adoption.

If only the big manufacturers would start committing serious money to big scale battery production. We should help them on the way by starting to ban diesels outright, or more subtly, just making the emissions limits even more unattainable than they already are

eagerv

Only glanced at the article but it appears he is quoting in Australian dollars?

liamog

That is a good point, the euro price is in their and pegs it at between €100 and €150 per kWh. So thats $115 to $175.
My extrapolation put 2018 at $167/kWh so looks like we're on track

Markcheese

How available are batteries going to be to buy... For a car manufacturer... Are they going to have to invest/go joint venture in a a battery company,
Or will they just be able to bid for X number of units, with a certain chemistry in a certain configuration?
It's all about risk, if they can just order components at world market price, (as they currently do for most car components), then they spread risk... And can get on with the core business of coming up with a design that sticks pre-bought components together in a aesthetically pleasing steel shell, and the actually building it...
If someone else takes the risk to design and build batteries at scale and gets it right they'll make a fortune, and it could be that most car manufacturers will all buy from the same few battery companies...

KCross

Markcheese wrote: »

How available are batteries going to be to buy... For a car manufacturer... Are they going to have to invest/go joint venture in a a battery company,
Or will they just be able to bid for X number of units, with a certain chemistry in a certain configuration?
It's all about risk, if they can just order components at world market price, (as they currently do for most car components), then they spread risk... And can get on with the core business of coming up with a design that sticks pre-bought components together in a aesthetically pleasing steel shell, and the actually building it...
If someone else takes the risk to design and build batteries at scale and gets it right they'll make a fortune, and it could be that most car manufacturers will all buy from the same few battery companies...

A good post to read here from our resident battery plant expert!!!
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=105117313&postcount=1532


There are a few key battery manufacturers and the car manufacturers are at their mercy and it takes time (2-3yrs) to get new capacity planned, built and getting cells out the door.

Tesla is a rare exception as they have their own battery production facilities (in partnership with Panasonic).

Markcheese

KCross wrote: »

A good post to read here from our resident battery plant expert!!!
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=105117313&postcount=1532


There are a few key battery manufacturers and the car manufacturers are at their mercy and it takes time (2-3yrs) to get new capacity planned, built and getting cells out the door.


Tesla is a rare exception as they have their own battery production facilities (in partnership with Panasonic).

True but that battery plant is also at the mercy of tesla making x number of vehicles... If they get a couple of models of car wrong.. Or they get the chemistry of the next batteries out of kilter with their opposition... Then the giga factory could be an anchor around their neck... Unless they then pair up with another big player, to spread their risk...
Hopefully they'll be too big to fail..

KCross

https://electrek.co/2018/10/12/tesla-powerwall-price-increase/

Its now €7860 here before installation costs! :eek:

The increase could be simply that Tesla want more of their packs used for cars rather than Powerwalls or they need to increase margins to become profitable or that it better reflects their $/kWh cost or a combination of all of those.

However, not good that the price is going the wrong direction when most of us want to see these things go down in price to make them financially viable!

KCross

https://electrek.co/2018/10/22/audi-e-tron-delay-software-lg-price-batteries/

With more makes/models with larger packs coming on-stream over the next 18mths there does seem to be a battery supply/demand issue bewing, imo.

liamog

Interesting if true, the original source is Bild which is the German Sun equivalent.

Markcheese

Is Tesla doing much with second hand battery packs? I assume these will start to ramp up in the future too.. As to Wether people will buy these or lease them though?

unkel

I guess Tesla aren't getting back many second hand packs yet

This is what they announced earlier this year:

"The long-term goal is to recycle spent batteries from any of Tesla’s businesses at each of its Gigafactories. “And ultimately what we want is a closed loop at the Gigafactories that reuses recycled materials. This isn’t impossible and we see a pathway to do it.” Recycling old batteries in the same physical location where the raw materials resulting from the recycling process will be used just makes sense. Why add cost by shipping raw materials around the world?

“Today, we’re on the way to do that. It’s definitely something that will be a huge benefit in the long term to cost as we’re able to reuse existing materials instead of having to mine new materials.”"

Mike9832

liamog wrote: »

I posted this in the BIK thread.

But I figure the analysis deserves it's own discussion.
Since 2010 EV Battery Costs are estimated to have dropped by 20% per year. Starting with the 2010 $1000/kWh cost and using 80% of that cost each subsequent year we can see how battery sizes have followed a logical progression. I've extrapolated the figures up to 2020.

The battery costs are all based roughly on the estimated market price.
Hopefully this illustrates the reason why I believe that 60&75kWh cars will be available sooner than most people think.

The info referring to battery costs detailed the per pack cost rather than per cell, so it may look different to some other figures you've seen.

Year | Cost Per kWh | Cars
2010 | $1,000.00 | i-MiEV 16kWh ($16,000)
2011 | $800.00 | Leaf 24kWh ($19,200) (Actual Battery Cost $375/kWh ($9000))
2012 | $640.00 | Zoe 22kWh ($14,080)
2013 | $512.00 | i3 22kWh ($11,264)
2014 | $409.60 |
2015 | $327.68 | eGolf 24.2kWh ($7,929)
2016 | $262.14 | Leaf 30kWh ($7864), Zoe 41kWh ($10,747), Ioniq 28kWh ($7,339)
2017 | $209.72 | eGolf 35.8kWh ($7,507), Bolt 60kWh ($12,583), i3 33kWh ($6,920)
2018 | $167.77 | Hypothetical 47.7kWh ($8,000)
2019 | $134.22 | Hypothetical 59.6kWh ($8,000)
2020 | $107.37 | Hypothetical 74.5kWh ($8,000)

Think you will have to go back to drawing board here, it ain't happening, we won't be seeing the cost saving anyway, even if your charts are correct, which they probably are in fairness

LG just gave Audi a nice 10% price increase on batteries, that VW ID for 25k ain't looking good now is it? What's that about? Costs supposed to go down

Example

Hyundai Kona 39kWh starts at 30k, 64kWh starts at 36k

Thats 6k for 25kWh

€240/kWh

Nissan Leaf 40kWh starts at 29k, Leaf 60kWh starts at rumoured 35k

€300/kWh

Tesla Model 3 78kWh starts at 49k in US, new MR with 62kWh is 45k

250/kWh

I know the higher battery EVs have a few more bhp but cost savings in your works are not kicking in at all

Its economics 101 now

Supply and demand

EVs are in incredible demand and price will not be going down in that situation

These companies like big auto and battery giants are in it to make money, as evident by LG and Tesla this week

unkel

Mike9832 wrote: »

EVs are in incredible demand

I think that's the core of it. When I bought my EV in January 2017, everybody around me thought I was crazy, the car would depreciate like mad and why didn't I buy a diesel like everyone else

Fast forward less than 2 years and now whoever I talk to, they all know we all will be driving EVs in the near future. A lot of people have started to act on that, this is why demand is very strongly on the up

liamog

Mike9832 wrote: »

Think you will have to go back to drawing board here, it ain't happening, we won't be seeing the cost saving anyway, even if your charts are correct, which they probably are in fairness

LG just gave Audi a nice 10% price increase on batteries, that VW ID for 25k ain't looking good now is it? What's that about? Costs supposed to go down

Example

Hyundai Kona 39kWh starts at 30k, 64kWh starts at 36k

Thats 6k for 25kWh

€240/kWh

Nissan Leaf 40kWh starts at 29k, Leaf 60kWh starts at rumoured 35k

€300/kWh

Tesla Model 3 78kWh starts at 49k in US, new MR with 62kWh is 45k

250/kWh

I know the higher battery EVs have a few more bhp but cost savings in your works are not kicking in at all

Its economics 101 now

Supply and demand

EVs are in incredible demand and price will not be going down in that situation

These companies like big auto and battery giants are in it to make money, as evident by LG and Tesla this week

Your quoting car prices not pack prices.
The only data point we have for this year is BMW paying between $115/kWh and $175/kWh. The Audi 10% news doesn't make much sense either, VAG multi billion dollar deal for next 10 years and then 6 months later LG are pushing for a 10% increase according to the German equivalent of the sun.

Mike9832

liamog wrote: »

Your quoting car prices not pack prices.
The only data point we have for this year is BMW paying between $115/kWh and $175/kWh. The Audi 10% news doesn't make much sense either, VAG multi billion dollar deal for next 10 years and then 6 months later LG are pushing for a 10% increase according to the German equivalent of the sun.

Yes

I am quoting cost per kWh from a smaller pack to larger pack. 39kWh to 64kWh is a €250/kWh difference in the Kona, which is extortion for 2018

Thats the price that affects us as a consumer

If cells have come down so much why is the Kia Niro €40,000 for 64kWh?

Trying to put people of EVs

Even Tesla can't sell a car for less than 45,000 without margin

Strange when the 50kWh pack for SR would only be just over €5000 for them

Something doesn't add up

ELM327

Mike9832 wrote: »

Yes

I am quoting cost per kWh from a smaller pack to larger pack. 39kWh to 64kWh is a €250/kWh difference in the Kona, which is extortion for 2018

Thats the price that affects us as a consumer

If cells have come down so much why is the Kia Niro €40,000 for 64kWh?

Trying to put people of EVs

Even Tesla can't sell a car for less than 45,000 without margin

Strange when the 50kWh pack for SR would only be just over €5000 for them

Something doesn't add up

Are you a consumer or are you still driving a diesel?

liamog

Mike9832 wrote: »

Yes

I am quoting cost per kWh from a smaller pack to larger pack. 39kWh to 64kWh is a €250/kWh difference in the Kona, which is extortion for 2018

Thats the price that affects us as a consumer

If cells have come down so much why is the Kia Niro €40,000 for 64kWh?

Trying to put people of EVs

Even Tesla can't sell a car for less than 45,000 without margin

Strange when the 50kWh pack for SR would only be just over €5000 for them

Something doesn't add up

I'd guess that companies are charging the price they can because they can sell models at those prices.


Battery prices and vehicle prices are somewhat linked, but at moment EVs are high demand, so as a manufacturer now is a good time to recoup some of the investment until battery availabilty stops being the limiting factor.

Mike9832

liamog wrote: »

Mike9832 wrote: »

Yes

I am quoting cost per kWh from a smaller pack to larger pack. 39kWh to 64kWh is a €250/kWh difference in the Kona, which is extortion for 2018

Thats the price that affects us as a consumer

If cells have come down so much why is the Kia Niro €40,000 for 64kWh?

Trying to put people of EVs

Even Tesla can't sell a car for less than 45,000 without margin

Strange when the 50kWh pack for SR would only be just over €5000 for them

Something doesn't add up

I'd guess that companies are charging the price they can because they can sell models at those prices.


Battery prices and vehicle prices are somewhat linked, but at moment EVs are high demand, so as a manufacturer now is a good time to recoup some of the investment until battery availabilty stops being the limiting factor.

Doesn't matter what the price is for batteries then.We will robbed anyhow, battery availability is going to be an issue well into the next decade 
When the incentives like vrt, grants etc go the prices will be off the wall 
BMW made a point recently that cost parity will never happen, looks that way

Mike9832

ELM327 wrote: »

Mike9832 wrote: »

Yes

I am quoting cost per kWh from a smaller pack to larger pack. 39kWh to 64kWh is a €250/kWh difference in the Kona, which is extortion for 2018

Thats the price that affects us as a consumer

If cells have come down so much why is the Kia Niro €40,000 for 64kWh?

Trying to put people of EVs

Even Tesla can't sell a car for less than 45,000 without margin

Strange when the 50kWh pack for SR would only be just over €5000 for them

Something doesn't add up

Are you a consumer or are you still driving a diesel?

Don't get your question, I drive and need a car like everyone

liamog

Tesla have announced the Mid Range Model 3 which has a 60kWh battery pack instead of the 75kWh in the long range.
The former price for the RWD LR was $49,000 the RWD MR is is $46,000, so by cutting 15kWh they've taken $3,000 off the price. ~$200/kWh.

We also know that Tesla are achieving a 20% margin on the model 3, $200/120% = $166.6/kWh
Hey look we're right on target, again.

The BMW exec indicated that 100kWh batteries would cost between AUD$17,000 and AUD$25,000 or USD$12,000 to USD$17,600, which again points to battery prices between $120 and $176.
Using $150 as a midpoint that places the Kona 64kWh battery at around $9,500. An EV powertrain is simpler than a petrol or diesel one which will go some way to funding the extra, add in the extra costs needed to reach the EU 2021 Fleet targets, and a couple more years of price drops, you can see how cost parity is reached.