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X Factor rip off.

  • 26-10-2017 06:37PM
    #1
    whiteshorts
    Site Banned Posts: 880 ✭✭✭


    Bookies have odds for 24 contestants, all in run or not.
    12 have qualified for Live shows with another 4 to be announced Saturday,
    voting for which finished last Monday so people know the results.
    8 of the quoted people have not qualified for the Live Shows and it's about a 1000/1 that any of them will now appear.

    Not only is it a rip off with 24 quoted, the margins on the event are massive, going on PP prices below, the book is over 140% :eek:, a football match is normally around 107% and a horse race around 115%.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/tv-specials/x-factor-betting?ev_oc_grp_ids=501830


Comments

  • #2
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,577 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    whiteshorts wrote: »
    Bookies have odds for 24 contestants, all in run or not.
    12 have qualified for Live shows with another 4 to be announced Saturday,
    voting for which finished last Monday so people know the results.
    8 of the quoted people have not qualified for the Live Shows and it's about a 1000/1 that any of them will now appear.

    Not only is it a rip off with 24 quoted, the margins on the event are massive, going on PP prices below, the book is over 140% :eek:, a football match is normally around 107% and a horse race around 115%.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/tv-specials/x-factor-betting?ev_oc_grp_ids=501830

    19 other books also have this offering, so not unique to PP.

    Basic logic suggests anyone with very basic sense can dismiss entirely anyone over 20/1 (dozen of contestants) if they're not, perhaps best to avoid these things altogether.

    Best plan is to follow own logic, and use various bigdata methods (if suitable) to asses who will win. You can almost guarantee either (or both if possible): Grace(23%) / Holly(9%) will be in the final 4.

    Margins are high as these type of novelty things are more random than some FA Cup match. e.g. someone could damage vocal chords or get a dose of the nerves during any live show.

    Pre-determined novelty/special market events can also be used to an advantage e.g. Last year's Apprentice winner (Summer filmed) was unnaturally short @1.67 when it went to E1 broadcast (in Autumn). A leak and pattern was confirmed later in the year.

    Those of us with insight, did well with the novelties thanks to '16's Brexitous & Trumpious, was there ever going to be any other result than these two?


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