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Hurricane Nate
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07-10-2017 6:13pm#1Having had a very destructive beginning from off the coast of Nicaragua, Hurricane Nate has intensified over the Gulf of Mexico despite travelling relatively quickly for a Hurricane making it more difficult to become organised and establish an eyewall. It is forecast to make landfall as a Category two Hurricane with max sustained windspeeds of about 170km/h (105mph). Minimum Central Pressure of 982mb NHC. The highest winds and therefor storm surge are and will be on the Eastern side of this fast moving system. The storm surge and rainfall flooding have historically been the greatest risk to human life from Hurricanes and are likely to be so again with this storm. Between the Mississippi river and the Mississippi border there could be storm surges of between two and a quarter to three and a quarter metres.
The Track could still see New Orleans on the wrong side (East) of Nate if it doesn't change direction as forecast but further East there are Gulfport and Billoxy Miississipi and Mobile, Alabama.
With the speed of Hurricane Nate, higher wind speeds can get further inland though rainfall accumulations should remain limited by the quick passing, still the rain will be intense in parts while it lasts.
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Meteorite58 wrote: »
Waterspout confirmed, moved ashore (weather channel twitter a/c) Gulf Shores area0 -
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Radar shows the centre just offshore now, with 52 mph the highest gust near the north of the centre.
Latest 85GHz scan. Nate's done well to develop as much as it has done but it will go down as one of the ugliest hurricanes structure-wise to make landfall...
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Moving inland now and winds decreasing as it moves relatively quickly on it's NW'ly track and set to be a remnant Low withing 36 hrs. Rainfall now the main issue.
NHC
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Nate is producing life-threatening storm surge flooding in areas
of onshore flow and a storm surge warning remains in effect from
Pointe a la Hache to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida.
Maximum flooding of 5 to 8 feet above ground level is expected
along the Mississippi coast within the next several hours.
2. Nate's fast forward speed over land will bring tropical storm
conditions well inland across portions of the southeastern U.S.
3. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central
Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and
southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for
flash flooding in these areas.
4. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also
bring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across
the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which
will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 31.5N 88.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 34.1N 86.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0600Z 38.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1800Z 42.5N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/0600Z 44.0N 71.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW0 -
Windwise Nate wasn't at hurricane force on landfall. There weren't even any hurricane-force gusts recorded in the dense network of stations.
Below are the max recorded gusts in mph, all tropical storm force (<74 mph, apart from one obvious erroneous reading well inland*).
The multiplatform wind analysis a couple of hours before landfall showed a tiny area of 65-knot winds offshore alright but it weakened considerably after that.
* The 75 mph reported gust from Calvert (49 ft) was an obvious reporting error from several hours well before landfall. These are the individual reports from around that time Saturday evening.
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