Theresa May and the Tory Leadership

mountaintop

Theresa May has type 1 diabetes, a very serious condition, she looks frail and bent. She would be well advised to retire to Spain and enjoy the rest of her life.

Mod - split from the Brexit thread.

Samaris

The Tory party conference sounds like a disaster. And Boris Johnson just couldn't stay out of the news.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/04/no-10-rebukes-boris-johnson-over-sirte-dead-bodies-comment

The favourite for next Prime Minister. Is this really the best the Conservative party can come up with?

LeinsterDub

mountaintop wrote: »

Theresa May has type 1 diabetes, a very serious condition, she looks frail and bent. She would be well advised to retire to Spain and enjoy the rest of her life.

She can't. They haven't agreed citizen's rights yet. (or the north or the budget)

Rjd2

Samaris wrote: »

The Tory party conference sounds like a disaster. And Boris Johnson just couldn't stay out of the news.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/04/no-10-rebukes-boris-johnson-over-sirte-dead-bodies-comment

The favourite for next Prime Minister. Is this really the best the Conservative party can come up with?

He is a disaster, but has always been very popular, played a huge role in Brexit and won London Mayor twice. I'd not vote for him, but found it crazy that some are suggesting he'd have no chance against Jez.

It was a very dull and poorly attended press conference from all accounts though. The only real hype there seemed to be around Ruth Davidson and Jacob Rees Mogg who the activists seemed to flock to.

The likes of Patel and Rudd delivered solid speeches from all accounts, but Hammond was dismal. He made the mistake of constantly scare mongering about the 70's and Labour, that is preaching to the converted and nothing more whatsoever.

May will try and hang on for now, but doubtful she will be in the job in 12 months.

Marina Hyde wrote a pretty amusing and decent review of the conference if you have a few mins to spare.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/04/boris-lion-king-to-theresa-may-p45-malarial-week-tory-conference?CMP=share_btn_tw

munsterlegend

It will be interesting to see the opinion polls after the two conferences. The tide seems to be flowing inevitably to Corbyn as next prime minister.

Junkyard Tom

There was a thread in the Politics Cafe titled 'UK Labour Party a Laughing Stock' last year. Now Labour are an ambitious grass-roots led movement with over half-a-million members.

Labour are talking about nationalising rail and water monopolies, are ahead of the CON's in the polls, are targeting about 60 CON's seats with overturn-able majorities ranging from Offshore-Amber Rudd's few hundred to BoJo's 5,000 (halved from 10K in the previous election).

After this week's shambolic CON's conference it is the Tory Party who are the laughing stock and Labour who look like the serious contenders.

Nody

Rjd2 wrote: »

May will try and hang on for now, but doubtful she will be in the job in 12 months.

I'd argue she'll have a job all the way through to 1st of April 2019 simply so that who ever replaces her got a suitable scapegoat to blame for all the hard brexit issues/faults on (because replacing her before the exit means you can be held responsible for the result). "Well I did not negotiate so badly with EU and if I had been in power then ..." Then said person will go on and do a poor election (because of Brexit) and the real question if the replacement lasts until the next election or not.

Rjd2

Nody wrote: »

I'd argue she'll have a job all the way through to 1st of April 2019 simply so that who ever replaces her got a suitable scapegoat to blame for all the hard brexit issues/faults on (because replacing her before the exit means you can be held responsible for the result). "Well I did not negotiate so badly with EU and if I had been in power then ..." Then said person will go on and do a poor election (because of Brexit) and the real question if the replacement lasts until the next election or not.

Yeah 2019 is the ideal date for her to go, gives her replacement some time to get ready for the next election, however with Johnson scheming and others in the background plotting, she may be temped to quit especially if the big donors start to panic.

Next few polls will be interesting, she was actually ahead of Jez last week in the yougov poll a reminder also that he is not exactly perfect either.

I should add the likes of Davidson and Mogg don't seem to have any interest in the number 10 job, obviously they can't make it obvious, but Davidson is happy in Scotland and Mogg probably does not want the hassle of been PM with his conservative viewpoints been analysed in so much depth.

The likes of Rudd, Patel, Johnson, Davis and Hammond who from all accounts want the job more at this moment all have serious flaws thus why the party is in such a lull at the moment.

seamus

Worth noting that type 1 diabetes is typically a lifelong condition, it is serious, but does not make a person frail or otherwise disabled or incapable.

I'm no May fan, but it's unfair to suggest that her diabetes makes her unsuitable. Her incompetence is what makes her unsuitable.

mountaintop

seamus wrote: »

Worth noting that type 1 diabetes is typically a lifelong condition, it is serious, but does not make a person frail or otherwise disabled or incapable.

I'm no May fan, but it's unfair to suggest that her diabetes makes her unsuitable. Her incompetence is what makes her unsuitable.

Oh yes, you are right. Point taken. But that wasn't my point at all. My point is that she looks frail, she does look bent over. She's not strong. She'd need to look after herself. Why bother with politics? For what? Abuse? Retire to the sun, Theresa. That's all I'm saying.

Fratton Fred

The shame about the disastrous speech, is that the side shows of her cough and the rather unfunny prank, really distract from the content of the speech itself.

May is a one nation conservative, which would put her, socially anyway, on the left wing of the party. She is a real partyline follower, but obviously has issues with the party line.

She announced that council house building will re-commence. this is huge and is a direct roll back on Tory policies. She has frozen university fees and increased the level at which these have to be repaid. She has also scrapped the public sector pay cap, although there has been no real movement on salaries in that regard.

She announced a cap on energy prices, a review of the mental health act to address injustice and to ensure that the families and victims of the Grenfell tower fire received the justice they deserve.

She also tried to bring in a sort of inheritance tax with regards repayment of elderly care fees as well, which was badly thought through, but i think was an attempt to roll back one of the conservative's fundamental policies.

If she didn't have the massive elephant in the room, that is Brexit, then i think she had the potential to become a very good leader. Unfortunately, her speech will just be remembered for some attention whores' stupid little stunt and her time as PM will just be remembered for the childish behaviors of some of her cabinet.

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

If she didn't have the massive elephant in the room, that is Brexit, then i think she had the potential to become a very good leader. Unfortunately, her speech will just be remembered for some attention whores' stupid little stunt and her time as PM will just be remembered for the childish behaviors of some of her cabinet.

She has been thoroughly incompetent throughout her tenure. Her decisions to waste time by fighting Gina Millar in the courts and by calling a general election with the A50 clock ticking were utterly disastrous own goals.

By far her biggest cock-up was prematurely triggering A50 before knowing what the Brexit process would entail. This has meant the appalling vista of a no-deal cliff edge Brexit in March '19.

She has brought the UK to the verge of catastrophe.

Nody

Fratton Fred wrote: »

If she didn't have the massive elephant in the room, that is Brexit, then i think she had the potential to become a very good leader. Unfortunately, her speech will just be remembered for some attention whores' stupid little stunt and her time as PM will just be remembered for the childish behaviors of some of her cabinet.

Sorry Fred and while we disagree on Brexit I don't think she'd ever under any circumstances become a good leader Brexit or no Brexit. The reason's are plenty but here are a few of them:

• She has no social understanding on how to act or speek in public (see interviews, acting at Greenfell etc.) making her every appearance awkward (unlike Corbyn who's a fish in water as such events)
• She may be claiming to totting the party line but the simple fact is she's flip flopped on pretty much every major point at one time or another; it shows a lack of political spine to stand for her own opinions
• She does not have the clout in the party to fire the people that needs to be fired
• She utterly failed to convey Tory's vision to the public losing a 20% lead to Corbyn in two months
• She got no media sense or in how things will be taken leading to constant flip flopping such as the psychiatric bill etc.
• She lacks a clear vision for how UK should look like in 20 years time and communicate this to the general population outside generic fillers (great future, close relationship etc.) which makes her look like she has no plan
• Which in turn leads her to take what Corbyn has already proposed as ideas instead to try to win back the popular vote but only making her look even weaker

I'm not claiming that this is an easy times to show you're a good leader but a good leader should shine at difficult times and May is doing anything but shining atm. She'd work as a carry on prime minister to come after a strong leader who's retiring and keep the status quo but that's about it.

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

She has been thoroughly incompetent throughout her tenure. Her decisions to waste time by fighting Gina Millar in the courts and by calling a general election with the A50 clock ticking were utterly disastrous own goals.

By far her biggest cock-up was prematurely triggering A50 before knowing what the Brexit process would entail. This has meant the appalling vista of a no-deal cliff edge Brexit in March '19.

She has brought the UK to the verge of catastrophe.

hang on, so fighting Gina Miller in the courts was wasting time, but she triggered A50 too early?

The referendum was called on the basis that A50 would be invoked prior to the end of the year, so holding it off until March was the smart thing to do, was it not, especially when you consider that the six founding members of the eu were putting pressure on the UK to do so.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/25/eu-emergency-talks-brexit-berlin

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/top-eu-leader-we-want-britain-out-as-soon-as-possible

Fratton Fred

Nody wrote: »

Sorry Fred and while we disagree on Brexit I don't think she'd ever under any circumstances become a good leader Brexit or no Brexit. The reason's are plenty but here are a few of them:

• She has no social understanding on how to act or speek in public (see interviews, acting at Greenfell etc.) making her every appearance awkward (unlike Corbyn who's a fish in water as such events)
• She may be claiming to totting the party line but the simple fact is she's flip flopped on pretty much every major point at one time or another; it shows a lack of political spine to stand for her own opinions
• She does not have the clout in the party to fire the people that needs to be fired
• She utterly failed to convey Tory's vision to the public losing a 20% lead to Corbyn in two months
• She got no media sense or in how things will be taken leading to constant flip flopping such as the psychiatric bill etc.
• She lacks a clear vision for how UK should look like in 20 years time and communicate this to the general population outside generic fillers (great future, close relationship etc.) which makes her look like she has no plan
• Which in turn leads her to take what Corbyn has already proposed as ideas instead to try to win back the popular vote but only making her look even weaker

I'm not claiming that this is easy times to show you're a good leader but a good leader should shine at difficult times and May is doing anything but shining atm.

I think you can sum all that up by just saying she is pretty **** in front of the cameras, which i would agree with.

loyatemu

she seems miserable, and the Tories will surely not want to fight another election with her at the helm, so it's just the timing of her departure that's in question. Presumably she doesn't want to see BoJo take the job so she'll cling on until he shoots himself in the foot again (which he inevitably will) and then clear the way for Rudd or someone similar.

Boris seems very divisive (leaving aside his buffoonery and general lack of scruples), I wonder if he's destined to be another Heseltine - big personality, blonde, always there or thereabouts but with too many enemies to ever land the top job.

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

hang on, so fighting Gina Miller in the courts was wasting time, but she triggered A50 too early?

The referendum was called on the basis that A50 would be invoked prior to the end of the year, so holding it off until March was the smart thing to do, was it not, especially when you consider that the six founding members of the eu were putting pressure on the UK to do so.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/25/eu-emergency-talks-brexit-berlin

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/top-eu-leader-we-want-britain-out-as-soon-as-possible

Fighting Gina Millar in the courts was a waste of time, calling the election was a waste of time. All after A50 was trigered.

The EU want an orderly departure and wanted certainty over Brexit. They wanted Brexit completed before the EU elections. Rational.

The UK were under no such constraints and should have invoked A 50 at a time which suited the UK and not the EU. It was the only thing they truly controlled.

Once it was invoked they risked not being ready in time. And that's exactly what happened: they are not ready for a no-deal scenario and must either walk out with disastrous consequences or accept the EUs position.

The fact that the court cases/election was called during this 2 year period just compounded the fatal OG.

jimmycrackcorm

demfad wrote:

By far her biggest cock-up was prematurely triggering A50 before knowing what the Brexit process would entail. This has meant the appalling vista of a no-deal cliff edge Brexit in March '19.

It was premature under political pressure. It shouldn't have been triggered until they at least could get to grips with their own negotiating position and understanding what they needed.

Instead of triggering with a full negotiating plan and stance, we're witnessing the headless chicken approach.

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

Fighting Gina Millar in the courts was a waste of time, calling the election was a waste of time. All after A50 was trigered.

The EU want an orderly departure and wanted certainty over Brexit. They wanted Brexit completed before the EU elections. Rational.

The UK were under no such constraints and should have invoked A 50 at a time which suited the UK and not the EU. It was the only thing they truly controlled.

Once it was invoked they risked not being ready in time. And that's exactly what happened: they are not ready for a no-deal scenario and must either walk out with disastrous consequences or accept the EUs position.

The fact that the court cases/election was called during this 2 year period just compounded the fatal OG.

I don't necessarily disagree with you on any of that, but i do think she was in a "Damned if you do, damned if you don't" position.

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I don't necessarily disagree with you on any of that, but i do think she was in a "Damned if you do, damned if you don't" position.

UK was damned by what she did and perhaps she would have been damned if she didn't. She made her choice. Clearly not a suitable leader for the interests of the UK.

AllGunsBlazing

For health reasons alone I can't see her lasting much longer - she looks quite unwell. They might as well take a punt on Boris at this stage. It really is the "hail mary" phase of the game for them with Corbyn getting stronger by the week.

Sam Russell

AllGunsBlazing wrote: »

For health reasons alone I can't see her lasting much longer - she looks quite unwell. They might as well take a punt on Boris at this stage. It really is the "hail mary" phase of the game for them with Corbyn getting stronger by the week.

Perhaps the Tories best bet would be another general election and let Corbyn in to get the Labour Party to crash and burn over Brexit. He would take over the poisoned chalice the is Brexit - no good can come of it and he would take the bullet - unless with a single bound the hero escapes.

AllGunsBlazing

Sam Russell wrote: »

Perhaps the Tories best bet would be another general election and let Corbyn in to get the Labour Party to crash and burn over Brexit. He would take over the poisoned chalice the is Brexit - no good can come of it and he would take the bullet - unless with a single bound the hero escapes.

Given the choice I'd rather be on the opposition bench considering the waters Britain will be forced to navigate.

Sam Russell

AllGunsBlazing wrote: »

Given the choice I'd rather be on the opposition bench considering the waters Britain will be forced to navigate.

I was thinking in terms of Tory options. Political parties often speak of the need to be on the opposition benches after a prolonged and lacklustre time in government - particularly at a time where everything is going pear shaped.

Rjd2

Sam Russell wrote: »

I was thinking in terms of Tory options. Political parties often speak of the need to be on the opposition benches after a prolonged and lacklustre time in government - particularly at a time where everything is going pear shaped.

Yes a break might make the heart grow fonder, there is plenty of division in the Jezza camp about Brexit also which would be seriously amplified in power.

Anyway first Yougov poll since the tory convention...

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/916244463940526080

Again, I am very confident that Jez will win the next election, but despite what Twitter might tell you, its not a cert whatsoever. It be even more interesting if the tories had a less useless option than May fronting the party also. :P

demfad

Rjd2 wrote: »

It be even more interesting if the tories had a less useless option than May fronting the party also. :P

Unfortunately, The two next favourites, Johnson and Mogg, are more useless and more potentially destructive for the UK.

dinorebel

demfad wrote: »

Unfortunately, The two next favourites, Johnson and Mogg, are more useless and more potentially destructive for the UK.

Johnson will self destruct as he always does Rees-Mogg would have the support of a handful of MP's if that.

cml387

Teresa May didn't exactly fight tooth and nail to be leader, it just fell into her lap.
Consequently her motivation for continuing in the job may not be as great as it would have been if she'd walked over bodies to get it.

I think her health may be an issue, it's essential you keep a regular routine with type 1 diabetes and that's pretty difficult with all she has on her plate.

I think she'll pack it in. I think her husband will persuade that being leader of a party that is increasingly spinning out of control is not worth it.

AllGunsBlazing

Sam Russell wrote: »

I was thinking in terms of Tory options. Political parties often speak of the need to be on the opposition benches after a prolonged and lacklustre time in government - particularly at a time where everything is going pear shaped.

Yeah, that's what I was getting at as well. The Tories are at a similar crossroads as in 1992. Winning that election did them no good in the long-term. Quite the opposite in fact. Though they did take a bullet in sparing the UK from Kinnock.

Rjd2

dinorebel wrote: »

Johnson will self destruct as he always does Rees-Mogg would have the support of a handful of MP's if that.

Famous last words here.....

But Mogg won't be leader, he alienates to many people with his old fashioned (been kind here) views and he genuinely does not seem to want it.

Guido Fawkes wrote a very sensible article a while ago about how unliekly this is to happen.

Ignore the betting price, takes very little to move political markets.



https://order-order.com/2017/08/29/moggmentum-isnt-real/

cml387

Sam Russell wrote: »

Perhaps the Tories best bet would be another general election and let Corbyn in to get the Labour Party to crash and burn over Brexit. He would take over the poisoned chalice the is Brexit - no good can come of it and he would take the bullet - unless with a single bound the hero escapes.

But surely Brexit is going to be a complete success? Why let Labour inherit the broad sunlit uplands of life outside the EU?