staking plans

sliabh beagh

anyone got any advice on staking plans? im currently running a system backing horses at longer odds. seems to be goin well for over a year now but wonder how i can maximise my profits from it. started with a 1000 euro betting bank and bet 3% on each bet. i have long losing runs because of the prices im backing[avg 20/1] so im not sure if this staking plans suits or not. any advice?

longshotvalue

sliabh beagh wrote: »

anyone got any advice on staking plans? im currently running a system backing horses at longer odds. seems to be goin well for over a year now but wonder how i can maximise my profits from it. started with a 1000 euro betting bank and bet 3% on each bet. i have long losing runs because of the prices im backing[avg 20/1] so im not sure if this staking plans suits or not. any advice?

3% is way too much. You need to be backing .5% at most if going with 20/1 shots.

I have years of figures and and going on about a 15%-20% roi but still can have 50-60 looses in a row no problem. With 1000 you'd have to start backing with €5 a point..

diomed

20/1 sound like you are betting with bookmakers.
You will get bigger odds on outsiders on an exchange.
Five years ago I got 75s on my biggest win. It was returned at 33/1 SP.
Another winner backed at 67s was also returned at 33/1.

My policy is to increase my stake the higher the odds.
I do not keep a separate betting bank. I do not back often.

I assume you have identified an edge not known to others if you are backing long odds.

This might help.
https://www.thepunterspal.com/archives/875


Quote from link below:
"I am not particularly aggressive with my money management. My feelings are that most money management theory tends to forget the psychological factor and of course this differs from person to person. I started off with a bank of 60 pts which looking back was a little light considering I bet 1pt level stakes win only off a strike rate of about 28%. At the end of the year I upped my stakes but only such that I was now betting 100th of my bank. Reviewing at the end of the year was something I did for about the first 6 years and then I changed to every 6 months but reducing the percentage of bank whilst increasing the bet size to the point where I suppose my bet size is now about 1000th of my bank. From this you can see that I have not been terribly aggressive but you also have to remember that there is a limit to how much you can physically get on and that side of things is getting tougher."
http://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/interview-with-a-professional-gambler/

When I went racing a lot I had 23 losers in a row, and many of those were favourites.

Kelly Criterion
http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php
http://www.bettingtools.co.uk/kelly-calculator
The problem with Kelly is you are guessing about your chances of winning.

sliabh beagh

thanks for replys lads. yes im currently betting with bookmakers but ive just opend a betfair account as i can certainly get my winners at bigger odds there. i only back horses at 8/1 or over and all done each way. why would 3% of betting bank be too much? if i just bet 0.5% of my £1000 bank thats £5 per bet. would be hard to make any meaningful profit from that?

Fanny Wank

Should also consider how much edge you reckon you have

I'd put more on a 20/1 shot I thought should be 5/1 than a 20/1 shot I thought should be 10/1

Not really into mathematical staking myself (I would kind of adjust my stakes based on more rough reasoning rather than bashing figures into a spreadsheet) but a few people I know bet half the % suggested by Kelly

sliabh beagh

im not even sure i have an edge. i just know i have a yearly level stakes profit. after cheltenham this year my bank was up to 5000 euro.[4000 profit and 1000 start]. i hit a long loosing run and 3 weeks ago was minus 200 euro so had 800 left in bank, im currently back up 1000 in profit so have 2000 in bank. just wondering if my staking plan is getting the maximum return when i do hit the enevitable winning run and big price winners. ive had one 50/1 winner in each of the last 2 yrs.

longshotvalue

sliabh beagh wrote: »

thanks for replys lads. yes im currently betting with bookmakers but ive just opend a betfair account as i can certainly get my winners at bigger odds there. i only back horses at 8/1 or over and all done each way. why would 3% of betting bank be too much? if i just bet 0.5% of my £1000 bank thats £5 per bet. would be hard to make any meaningful profit from that?

3% is too much because at bigger prices it absolutely will happen that you will go broke at some stage. .5% should be your standard bet size and then up depending on margin (or perceived Value).

Also there is no way you should be betting Each Way everything at the moment, only when the terms are good. Anytime its 1/5 odds a place when there isn't an extra place is 80% of the time poor value. You'll find you make far more betting less of your bank but win only.

sliabh beagh

im only betting in minimum 8 runner races with 3 places minimum. i went through my last years results and ive worked out alot better goin each way rather than straight. some of my best winners have been placed horses.[100/1 placed at weekend]. how can i empty my bank if i keep betting 3% of it?

diomed

I don't think there are any rules.
People find their own path.
The important thing imo is to bet when you feel you must bet at the odds.
Can you see why the horse is those odds and can you tell why the odds are wrong?
If you can find a good reason why the horse must be opposed you are on track.
Many times I have been very uncertain about a bet, and they have often won.

redzerdrog

I think 3% is fine as it means you are constantly adjusting your stake to suit your bankroll

realdanbreen

sliabh beagh wrote: »

im not even sure i have an edge.

Let me clarify that for you, NO, you don't have an 'edge'.
Nobody has an edge, there is no such thing as an edge.
The only ones with an edge if you want to call it that are the bookmakers.
These firms spend millions on software analysis, IT staff etc and it is nonsensical to think that joe blogs on his laptop and perhaps his $25 ' beat the bookies!' software package will get an 'edge' on anybody. That said it is possible to make a profit on gambling on horse racing but you would need to put in hard work studying the game and be attending race meetings on a regular basis.

ANDREWMUFC

sliabh beagh wrote: »

im only betting in minimum 8 runner races with 3 places minimum. i went through my last years results and ive worked out alot better goin each way rather than straight. some of my best winners have been placed horses.[100/1 placed at weekend]. how can i empty my bank if i keep betting 3% of it?

Were you on that 100/1 winner in the 7:10 at kempton

sliabh beagh

ANDREWMUFC wrote: »

Were you on that 100/1 winner in the 7:10 at kempton

would love to have had 3% of my bank on that bad boy.lol. the system im following is not form related so im not really trying to get an edge as such. had 3 online accounts to try get the best value available but got one of them shut down. is betfair the way forward particulaly for punting at bigger prices?

sdoc13

sliabh beagh wrote:

would love to have had 3% of my bank on that bad boy.lol. the system im following is not form related so im not really trying to get an edge as such. had 3 online accounts to try get the best value available but got one of them shut down. is betfair the way forward particulaly for punting at bigger prices?

You should have an account with every online bookie and take full advantage of sign up offers etc. Back where price is best .

diomed

realdanbreen wrote: »

Let me clarify that for you, NO, you don't have an 'edge'.
Nobody has an edge, there is no such thing as an edge.
The only ones with an edge if you want to call it that are the bookmakers.
These firms spend millions on software analysis, IT staff etc and it is nonsensical to think that joe blogs on his laptop and perhaps his $25 ' beat the bookies!' software package will get an 'edge' on anybody. That said it is possible to make a profit on gambling on horse racing but you would need to put in hard work studying the game and be attending race meetings on a regular basis.

If you have studied harder than the bookmakers then you can have an edge.
You are saying the bookmakers know more about horseracing than anyone else could know.

realdanbreen

diomed wrote: »

If you have studied harder than the bookmakers then you can have an edge.
You are saying the bookmakers know more about horseracing than anyone else could know.

I am saying forget the horsesh1t about 'edges', systems, etc and go racing!
You would learn more in one afternoon than all the 'idiots guide to betting' books that were ever printed. OTOH if you regard horse racing punting the same as playing blackjack then fine work away.

Peintre Celebre

realdanbreen wrote: »

I am saying forget the horsesh1t about 'edges', systems, etc and go racing!
You would learn more in one afternoon than all the 'idiots guide to betting' books that were ever printed. OTOH if you regard horse racing punting the same as playing blackjack then fine work away.

You do realise that an edge and a system are two entirely different things?

To think that no one can have an edge over bookies is naive. Why are countless clued punters accounts closed? Beating sp consistently would be showing a definite edge

Fanny Wank

If you dont have edge you will lose in the long run. End of

Realdanbreen - some of your posts are so hilariously clueless I often think you're trolling

realdanbreen

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

You do realise that an edge and a system are two entirely different things?

To think that no one can have an edge over bookies is naive. Why are countless clued punters accounts closed? Beating sp consistently would be showing a definite edge

A few half decent wins on the trot gets an online account limited or closed so that means jack sh1t. OTOH there are very few punters who the track or shop bookies refuse to take money from in fact it's quite the opposite and many heavy punters are given complimentary incentives such as match tickets and weekends away to entice them to keep coming back.

realdanbreen

Fanny **** wrote: »

Realdanbreen - some of your posts are so hilariously clueless I often think you're trolling

Do you think anyone gives a flying f##k what you might think about anything!

Fanny Wank

realdanbreen wrote: »

Do you think anyone gives a flying f##k what you might think about anything!

Probably not but I'm just hoping nobody takes heed of the absolute tripe you post

realdanbreen

Fanny **** wrote: »

I'd put more on a 20/1 shot I thought should be 5/1 than a 20/1 shot I thought should be 10/1

Wow:eek:, So that's how your 'edge' works!

Massimo Tara

If anyone has a differing opinion on this forum they get they get torn apart. It's laughable. I think diomed is right. You find your path and stick to it. Many times I've tried a bet that I wouldn't normally do and lost. It's whatever works for you

Fanny Wank

realdanbreen wrote: »

Wow:eek:, So that's how your 'edge' works!

You're obviously illiterate as well as a complete imbecile. Anyway won't be engaging again - waste of time

diomed

realdanbreen wrote: »

I am saying forget the horsesh1t about 'edges', systems, etc and go racing!
You would learn more in one afternoon than all the 'idiots guide to betting' books that were ever printed. OTOH if you regard horse racing punting the same as playing blackjack then fine work away.

It sounds like you are a real supporter of the game.
I find went racing in 1969. One summer I went racing every Saturday and Sunday, about about 60 flat race meetings.
I've been to meetings in USA, Ireland, England, Australia.
Many afternoons on racecourses haven't taught me much.

What I learned was make your selections and decide your stakes before you go.
You might think you can look at horses in the parade ring, judge their conformation and fitness, and pick a winner. I doubt it.

Last week I analysed 434 horses that were sold at a horse auction a few years ago.
I googled the horses after they were sold and wrote down how much they won in their careers.
372 of the 434 lost money i.e. their earnings on the racecourse were less than the buyers paid for them at auction (86% were losers).
Some I could not trace fully so they may have some foreign earnings that I did not find.
I think many did not race i.e. when trained they were found to be too slow.
The return, earnings as a percentage of auction cost, was 18%.
And I am not adding in auctioneers fees, shipping, training costs (€20k a year?) in the years they ran.
If I assumed they raced for a couple of years the return was below 10%.

If experts can not assess horses at auction, and in inspections when they are led out and looked at beforehand, I doubt a casual racegoer can pick winners by attending an afternoon's racing.

There was a time when bookmakers invested in staff who analysed races and knew the form.
My guess is they have let those people go, and now maintain their edge by manipulating starting prices, limiting or closing accounts, installing snooping software like isnare on customers computers, cultivating customers who have access to large funds (often not their own).

Perhaps you would list what we could learn in an afternoon at the races.

tryfix

Massimo Tara wrote: »

If anyone has a differing opinion on this forum they get they get torn apart. It's laughable. I think diomed is right. You find your path and stick to it. Many times I've tried a bet that I wouldn't normally do and lost. It's whatever works for you

Yep!

Agree about sticking to what works for you, or more correctly avoiding what doesn't work for you. If you don't have a comfort zone then backing horses is likely to be an expensive business for you.

When you get out of your comfort zone you might as well be backing coin tosses at bookies odds.

maxmo

tryfix wrote: »

Yep!

Agree about sticking to what works for you, or more correctly avoiding what doesn't work for you. If you don't have a comfort zone then backing horses is likely to be an expensive business for you.

When you get out of your comfort zone you might as well be backing coin tosses at bookies odds.

And they'd both be 8/15

realdanbreen

diomed wrote: »

It sounds like you are a real supporter of the game.
I find went racing in 1969. One summer I went racing every Saturday and Sunday, about about 60 flat race meetings.
I've been to meetings in USA, Ireland, England, Australia.
Many afternoons on racecourses haven't taught me much.

What I learned was make your selections and decide your stakes before you go.
You might think you can look at horses in the parade ring, judge their conformation and fitness, and pick a winner. I doubt it.

Last week I analysed 434 horses that were sold at a horse auction a few years ago.
I googled the horses after they were sold and wrote down how much they won in their careers.
372 of the 434 lost money i.e. their earnings on the racecourse were less than the buyers paid for them at auction (86% were losers).
Some I could not trace fully so they may have some foreign earnings that I did not find.
I think many did not race i.e. when trained they were found to be too slow.
The return, earnings as a percentage of auction cost, was 18%.
And I am not adding in auctioneers fees, shipping, training costs (€20k a year?) in the years they ran.
If I assumed they raced for a couple of years the return was below 10%.

If experts can not assess horses at auction, and in inspections when they are led out and looked at beforehand, I doubt a casual racegoer can pick winners by attending an afternoon's racing.

There was a time when bookmakers invested in staff who analysed races and knew the form.
My guess is they have let those people go, and now maintain their edge by manipulating starting prices, limiting or closing accounts, installing snooping software like isnare on customers computers, cultivating customers who have access to large funds (often not their own).

Perhaps you would list what we could learn in an afternoon at the races.

Well for openers you are going to be talking to fellow racing enthusiasts and I would swap that any day to talking to some fellow staring at a screen in the bookies watching cartoon racing! You mention bookmakers 'cultivating customers who have access to large funds'. Why do you think they might do that? I would suggest they do that to try and relieve those customers of some of those funds, regardless of what so called 'edge' those customers might have. The last two big wins that I had came from conversations that came up while attending race meetings. As for 'tips' , they fly around like snuff at a wake and more often than not are a distraction to what you might select yourself. BTW with the exception of Australia I too have attended race meetings in the countries you list plus France and Scotland.

Peintre Celebre

Dan do you think people at race meetings are better punters for some reason? Owners and people in racing are notoriously poor bettors. Ya stables might land a touch but modt sre clueless punters the same with the majority of those lads you refer to at the races

And regarding fellas standing all day in the bookies, i can assure you no one backing ten horses a day seven days a week is someonr you want to be taking advice from. The smart punters arent lads youll see standing around running up to the counter ten seconds before the off of s ten runner 130% claimer.

Anyone with half a clue i know bet online and have multiple accounts in multiple names. Might pop into a shop to do a bet but wont be standing around to discusd the shocking ride the 1/2 fav got in the class six handicap

realdanbreen

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Dan do you think people at race meetings are better punters for some reason? Owners and people in racing are notoriously poor bettors. Ya stables might land a touch but modt sre clueless punters the same with the majority of those lads you refer to at the races

And regarding fellas standing all day in the bookies, i can assure you no one backing ten horses a day seven days a week is someonr you want to be taking advice from. The smart punters arent lads youll see standing around running up to the counter ten seconds before the off of s ten runner 130% claimer.

Anyone with half a clue i know bet online and have multiple accounts in multiple names. Might pop into a shop to do a bet but wont be standing around to discusd the shocking ride the 1/2 fav got in the class six handicap

You must be mixing with the wrong people when you go racing PC if you are meeting 'racing people who are notoriously clueless' I might not be as clued in as anyone that you know but if I had to do my betting from a laptop and multiple accounts I would throw my hat at it if I ever became that dull a person! Wheres the spark man! the gizz! at least go racing get a f~~~ing smell of the horses, get your shoes mucky, get laid whatever!

Peintre Celebre

I never said they are clueless about racing i said notorioudly clueless bettors. Some of my friends sit watching racing all day and frequently go and they'd still do their nuts. There is a distinct difference.

Rest of your post is laughable in fairness regarding being dull having to bet online. I dont gamble for fun i do it to make money. Id say youd get sent weekly free bets by all bookies online if you did register, you should consider it

realdanbreen

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

I never said they are clueless about racing i said notorioudly clueless bettors. Some of my friends sit watching racing all day and frequently go and they'd still do their nuts. There is a distinct difference.

Rest of your post is laughable in fairness regarding being dull having to bet online. I dont gamble for fun i do it to make money. Id say youd get sent weekly free bets by all bookies online if you did register, you should consider it

What you're saying is that you are not really into horse racing, you are into gambling. So you would be just as happy betting on who will win celebrity big brother as you would betting on horse racing. Fair enough each to their own. I'd say the most exciting part of the upcoming weekend for you will be if your laptop battery goes flat!

diomed

realdanbreen wrote: »

A few half decent wins on the trot gets an online account limited or closed so that means jack sh1t. OTOH there are very few punters who the track or shop bookies refuse to take money from in fact it's quite the opposite and many heavy punters are given complimentary incentives such as match tickets and weekends away to entice them to keep coming back.

Former post office manager jailed for €1.75m theft to fund gambling
Paddy Power bookmakers had viewed him as a highly valued customer, even bringing him on all expenses trips to the Europa League Final in Dublin and the Irish Derby race meeting.

By "heavy punters" do you mean losers?

Peintre Celebre

realdanbreen wrote: »

What you're saying is that you are not really into horse racing, you are into gambling. So you would be just as happy betting on who will win celebrity big brother as you would betting on horse racing. Fair enough each to their own. I'd say the most exciting part of the upcoming weekend for you will be if your laptop battery goes flat!

Im not gonna bother pointing out all your errors cos id be here all day youre quite clesrly retarded. The most exciting part of your weekend is getting out of the special living house to go into powers for the excitement of betting. Enjoy

diomed

I think it is time to close this thread.
It has changed from staking plans to trolling and flaming.