Is AFD how you spell UKIP in German?

Snickers Man

So a party full of histrionic paranoid "nationalists" make some major inroads after a national poll and the first thing it does to celebrate is..........say goodbye to its leader.

UKIP? No (Well yes, but that was a year ago)

Such is the fate of Alternativ fur Deutschland which has seen its joint leader Frauke Petry swan off the stage as it took seats in the Bundestag for the first time.

How very British of them!

Fratton Fred

Snickers Man wrote: »

So a party full of histrionic paranoid "nationalists" make some major inroads after a national poll and the first thing it does to celebrate is..........say goodbye to its leader.

UKIP? No (Well yes, but that was a year ago)

Such is the fate of Alternativ fur Deutschland which has seen its joint leader Frauke Petry swan off the stage as it took seats in the Bundestag for the first time.

How very British of them!

don't they have a history of splits and falling outs?

I thought this was just par for the course for AfD

The Rape of Lucretia

No, and a bit too much is being made of them. Sure, their vote rose since the last election, but for comparison, The National Socialist German Workers Party increased its vote from 3℅ to 18℅ between 1928 and 1930, so they were well shy of that performance.

murphaph

I wouldn't say too much is being made of it. This is the first time a party to the right of the CDU has been in the Bundestag!

They have smashed through the 5% quota designed to keep extreme parties out of parliament.

Varik

murphaph wrote: »

I wouldn't say too much is being made of it. This is the first time a party to the right of the CDU has been in the Bundestag!

They have smashed through the 5% quota designed to keep extreme parties out of parliament.

It'd be to the right of the CSU, but same difference.

Snickers Man

The main news from the German election is that Frau Merkel has won a fourth consecutive general election. Even Thatcher couldn't do that. The British Tories booted her out after three wins and then won the next election under Major. So four in a row is pretty rare. And impressive.

There was bound to be some slippage in her vote after three wins and 12 years as Chancellor. Proper democracies tend not to go for perennial one-party domination. Admittedly, the German model which encourages coalitions, Grand or otherwise, acts as a damper to that. But still, for Merkel to finish on top, albeit with some recalcitrant voices further to the fore than hitherto (if you define hitherto to start some time after 1945) is a remarkable achievement.

The demise of the SDP is not a surprise. In PR-elected parliaments where coalitions prevail, it is always the junior partner that suffers when there is a swing against the sitting government--as there usually tends to be in democratic societies. Ask our Labour Party here. Ask our Progressive Democrats (remember them?) Ask the Lib Dems in Britain, even. Electorates get pissed off with the kingmakers more readily than the kings.

So yes. The angry conservatives who "want their country back" have made gains. And I am slightly amused, nay disgusted, to see the right wing press in the US exult at this. "Trump effect reaches Germany" gloats Fox News. Any other time they're warning us about how we "would all be speaking German" if it hadn't been for "their boys" standing up to a previous generation of ultranationalist German racists.

But AfD are still a tiny minority. And I am greatly amused by the fact that they can't seem to keep a leader in their job for more than a couple of hours. Who does that remind you of? Hint, without Googling take this as a pub quiz question: Name the FIVE most recent leaders of UKIP going all the way back to, er, September 2016?

Muppets (Muppeten)

Interesting times ahead for Germany. Balancing the conflicting demands of the Greens and the Free Democrats with each knowing that a poor result in those negotiations will guarantee their annihilation at the next election is going to be a challenge.
But it could be worse.
They could be the British Tories.

Tayschren

Snickers Man wrote: »

But AfD are still a tiny minority. )

5,316,095 constituency votes is tiny.......

Snickers Man

Tayschren wrote: »

5,316,095 constituency votes is tiny.......

Compared to:
15 million plus for the CDU;
9.5 million for the SPD:
5 million for the FPD;
and 4 million plus for both Greens and Left.......


...yes.

murphaph

@snickersman...this time the Union (CDU/CSU) lost more percentage votes than the junior partner the SPD.

Merkel needs to win back AfD votes which will be difficult with the likely coalition partners. I'd have a lot more respect for the SPD if they stayed in government and worked with the CDU to see the back of the AfD at the next election.

murphaph

Snickers Man wrote: »

Compared to:
15 million plus for the CDU;
9.5 million for the SPD:
5 million for the FPD;
and 4 million plus for both Greens and Left.......


...yes.

To be fair it's not tiny at all. Getting into the Bundestag at all is a huge victory for any party because there's a 5% of national votes hurdle to overcome

Snickers Man

murphaph wrote: »

@snickersman...this time the Union (CDU/CSU) lost more percentage votes than the junior partner the SPD.

Only because she had such a thumping win last time. Losing a lot of votes still left her the largest party whereas losing proportionally fewer votes left the SPD in a precarious position.

murphaph wrote: »

Merkel needs to win back AfD votes which will be difficult with the likely coalition partners. I'd have a lot more respect for the SPD if they stayed in government and worked with the CDU to see the back of the AfD at the next election.

But if they did that then AFD would be the official opposition as the largest party (although small) on the opposite side of the fence. Which would give them a prestige higher than they deserve. I think the SPD will do more harm to the AFD by being the main opposition.

If they stayed in coalition they would be wiped out at the next election. After all, they can't do any good if they barely exist, can they?

The AfD should be seen as the canary in the coalmine. A warning about what can happen if you take too many people for granted for too long. And a spur to find better solutions to the ones they are offering. But, to continue the analogy, the canary is only any practical use if it dies.

Let 'em kill themselves. Like UKIP is doing.

murphaph

Hmmm I'm not sure I can agree. UKIP had at most one MP in Douglas Carswell. The AfD will have over 90 Abgeordneten in the Bundestag. It's a different ballgame.

Maybe it's the new normal to have a far right party in parliament as several other EU countries have. Hopefully not though.

The UK has gone even further...their main conservative party has itself swung so far to the right that UKIP is not necessary!

Snickers Man

murphaph wrote: »

Hmmm I'm not sure I can agree. UKIP had at most one MP in Douglas Carswell. The AfD will have over 90 Abgeordneten in the Bundestag. It's a different ballgame.

Maybe it's the new normal to have a far right party in parliament as several other EU countries have. Hopefully not though.

The UK has gone even further...their main conservative party has itself swung so far to the right that UKIP is not necessary!

Yes but that's what happens in the British system. And the American. They are essentially two-party systems which live in terror of the split vote. That's less of a concern with PR-based systems.

Smaller parties tend to go further faster in proportional systems. But by the same token, they can be isolated and burned out more readily. Whereas in Britain and the US, they can infect the larger parties which their virus has to infiltrate to have any effect.

Put simply: in PR systems the coalitions are more obvious in that each smaller party retains its identity and autonomy even when in government with somebody else. In the US and UK, the coalitions are less obvious: they are subsumed into the overall identity of the larger parties--Conservatives, Labour, Democrats, Republicans. But they are coalitions nonetheless.

DickSwiveller

murphaph wrote: »

Hmmm I'm not sure I can agree. UKIP had at most one MP in Douglas Carswell. The AfD will have over 90 Abgeordneten in the Bundestag. It's a different ballgame.

Maybe it's the new normal to have a far right party in parliament as several other EU countries have. Hopefully not though.

The UK has gone even further...their main conservative party has itself swung so far to the right that UKIP is not necessary!

A sucker for conventional wisdom.

blinding

Great to see a party making a break through to break the cosy alliance that has been looking after an Uber Elite through out Europe .

13% for a party started 4 years ago in a national election is truly astounding .

Elites always fook it up in the end because they are so out of touch they cannot see the error of their ways .

Hopefully AFD will knock some sense into the other political parties in Germany and beyond .

They had better get back in touch with ordinary people and fast .

ancapailldorcha

DickSwiveller wrote: »

A sucker for conventional wisdom.

Please read the charter before posting again. This is not a forum for one-liners.

murphaph

blinding wrote: »

Great to see a party making a break through to break the cosy alliance that has been looking after an Uber Elite through out Europe .

13% for a party started 4 years ago in a national election is truly astounding .

Elites always fook it up in the end because they are so out of touch they cannot see the error of their ways .

Hopefully AFD will knock some sense into the other political parties in Germany and beyond .

They had better get back in touch with ordinary people and fast .

If the AfD had their way Germany would leave the EU which would fatally wound it. Is that what you want?

blinding

murphaph wrote: »

If the AfD had their way Germany would leave the EU which would fatally wound it. Is that what you want?

As I am in favour of Sovereign Independent Countries then Yes .

We ( 26 counties ) are not that long out of the British Empire . We should not have given away our Independence and Sovereignty .

Brexit has shown clearly and unequivocally that you are not a Sovereign and Independent country and in the EU.

murphaph

blinding wrote: »

As I am in favour of Sovereign Independent Countries then Yes .

We ( 26 counties ) are not that long out of the British Empire . We should not have given away our Independence and Sovereignty .

Brexit has shown clearly and unequivocally that you are not a Sovereign and Independent country and in the EU.

Then we have a fundamental disagreement that can't be resolved. I think what's important is quality of life and that we have had a better quality of life in the EU than we would have had outside it. I don't give a sh1te what flag is on my passport. Sovereignty doesn't keep you warm or put food in your belly.

Ted Plain

I read the German news, but I never bother with any articles about AfD. I have the opinion, though, that they cultivate a more refined image than the skinhead parties like the NPD. Do they have articulate people who can talk the politician's talk? If they do, they will quite possibly go from strength to strength.

I remember back in 1998 when a party by the name of the DVU achieved 13% of the vote in the state of Sachsen-Anhalt's regional elections. They ran a remarkable campaign with a slogan saying something along the lines of don't allow yourself to be shat on (Lass dich nicht zur Sau machen), Germany for the Germans, German jobs for Germans and so on. There were stickers and posters everywhere.

In any case, the 13% earned them 15 or so local parliament representatives. And let me tell you, these guys literally turned out to be a shower of bozos that they found bellowing and ranting down in the pub. They were comedy gold.

If you understand German here they are in all their glory:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1D7zkFpLW2E

This lad is from a campaign some years after that in Hamburg:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0MjpSGyU-U

Are AfD better turned out than the DVU?

murphaph

Unlike these previous attempts, the AfD has succeeded in the former West Germany, especially in Bavaria, where they beat the SPD and took second place!

They have a much slicker campaign style and make heavy use of social media.

DickSwiveller

What's the criteria for determining whether a party is far-right? Judging by Rte and Boards posters it seems to be anyone slightly to the right of Karl Marx.

murphaph

DickSwiveller wrote: »

What's the criteria for determining whether a party is far-right? Judging by Rte and Boards posters it seems to be anyone slightly to the right of Karl Marx.

Perhaps as a foreigner in Germany I have a tendency to be more sceptical of the likes of the AfD. "First they came for the Communists...."

CalamariFritti

murphaph wrote: »

Unlike these previous attempts, the AfD has succeeded in the former West Germany, especially in Bavaria, where they beat the SPD and took second place!

No they haven’t. SPD 15.3, AfD 12.4

murphaph

CalamariFritti wrote: »

No they haven’t. SPD 15.3, AfD 12.4

Hmmm, right you are. My mistake. It must have been in isolated constituencies. Nevertheless, it's a resounding success for the AfD to break out of Eastern Germany like this.

CalamariFritti

murphaph wrote: »

Hmmm, right you are. My mistake. It must have been in isolated constituencies. Nevertheless, it's a resounding success for the AfD to break out of Eastern Germany like this.

It is a success but there’s always been a 10, 15 percent arch cinservarive right wing potential.
And the AfD needs to be careful not to go into self destruct mode immediately anyway.
Plus I expect next to no constructive parliamentary input from them if their state parliament form is anything to go by.
I’d rather not have them there but I’m not worried.