Accuracy of weather forecasts coming into land?

Impetus

I was on an Alitalia flight from FCO to MLA yesterday (8.9.2010). There were heavy thunderstorms in Malta for much of Friday. As we were on approach to MLA, a flight announcement advised of a diversion to Palermo in Sicily due to weather at MLA. I could see on my GPS the aircraft turning around and going back to Sicily. When we landed at PMO, I had a look at MLA weather on yr.no and wunderground.com, and could see that the thunderstorms which were showing for 18h were due to have cleared up by 19h and the probability of precipitation had gone down from 67% at 18h to 2% at 19h.

Alitalia flight attendant announced that we were going back to Rome.

I showed the guy next to me the weather forecast for MLA and said how stupid, dumb it was to go back to Rome. He was Italian. He went up to the cabin crew (we were in row 4) and one assumes passed on the message about the weather clearance in MLA to the flight crew. Anyway within 10 minutes, we were advised to buckle up, and were on our way to Malta.

This posting is not aimed at Alitalia or Malta Airport. But I wonder how accurate the weather forecasts they work on are – ie how up to the minute? I was taking my data from a Norwegian website – yr.no – which uses the HIRLAM and Harmonie models which were developed by the Scandinavian countries, Ireland, NL, and others – and is used by France and Spain also. Malta is a tiny country with a smaller population than Cork. I don’t know where they get their weather data from. I have noticed how pilots and co-pilots often give out of date weather info for the destination airport on many airlines – which is obvious on one’s mobile phone from snapshots one takes on board before take-off.

You have the same issue on Irish weather reports on RTE and other media. The forecasts are not precise. The presenter seems to cover every possibility of weather outcome with little regional accuracy. We have super computers working out weather forecasts for each 5 x 5 km of space in many countries – or in Ireland’s case around 10 x 10 km – and the message delivered by media weather forecasters is far from precise.

One wonders where do flight crew get their ‘landing weather’ from say 10 minutes before landing? Is it from the airline company or from the destination airport?

Anyway, when we landed in Malta, the yr.no forecast was spot on. There was just some water on the runway from the past rain. And yr.no had the temperature spot on – it was a freezing 22C (at this time of the year one would expect nearer 35C) at this time of day.

One suspect airlines pay €€€€€ for weather info. They do not appear to be getting value for money.

Ultimate Seduction

Do you want a pat on the back?

I find it hard to believe the pilot decided to drive on to Malta because a passenger told cabin crew the weather will be grand.

Locker10a

I think what's more likely is the Alitalia operations department or air-traffic control would have looked at the revised weather and issued the flight deck with the new information which then changed their mind.
I can guarantee you with 99% certainty that you're googling of the weather unfortunately didn't change the captains mind.

Impetus

Please don't be so minded.

I am simply asking a question as a frequent flyer. I am paying airline salaries.

How time/accurate is the met info pilots get?

I travel a lot (and don't depend on Google & co), but I can see how out of date so called real-time info is. I was in Barcelona airport the other day and my Vueling flight was delayed. On the screens at BCN airport, and in the lounge screens it was showing on-time. On flightstats.com it was showing 45 minutes late. Even on vueling.com it was showing late. I asked one of the people in the lounge to call the airline - and they admitted my info was correct and BCN airport flight info was out of date.

The posts to my root show how sick the Irish mentality is - many Irish people don't want to improve the world - it appears to me that they want to (corruptly) maintain the status quo. My take-away, yet again from many postings on boards and other Irish venues.

JCX BXC

Impetus wrote: »

I am simply asking a question as a frequent flyer. I am paying airline salaries.

Oh get off your high horse, possibly the most arrogant attitude you could come across as, I'm sure you're not that bad, however I'm paying xxxx salary is the most condescending sh*te you could come out with!

How time/accurate is the met info pilot get

Very, METARs update every 30mins and would give more tailored info than your YR.no would. You have things like wind in knots, wind direction in degrees, visability weather + intensity (eg light rain, moderate snow etc), temperature/dewpoint, clouds, air pressure and trend for next 2 hours.

Download Aeroweather if you'd like to see some METARs.

Ultimate Seduction

Impetus wrote:

The posts to my root show how sick the Irish mentality is - many Irish people don't want to improve the world - it appears to me that they want to (corruptly) maintain the status quo. My take-away, yet again from many postings on boards and other Irish venues.

Wow

Impetus

JCX BXC wrote: »

Oh get off your high horse, possibly the most arrogant attitude you could come across as, I'm sure you're not that bad, however I'm paying xxxx salary is the most condescending sh*te you could come out with!



Very, METARs update every 30mins and would give more tailored info than your YR.no would. You have things like wind in knots, wind direction in degrees, visability weather + intensity (eg light rain, moderate snow etc), temperature/dewpoint, clouds, air pressure and trend for next 2 hours.

Download Aeroweather if you'd like to see some METARs.

I am not blaming flight staff, pilots etc for this. I am blaming the met system put in place by governments. With HIRLAM and HARMONIE - we (Europeans) can tell Americans more accurately where their hurricanes will cause problems. than they can using US met systems. Europe is better at creating food, fashions (Hermes, Louis Vuitton etc), global business operations software (sap.de) cars, aircraft (airbus), creating super cars - Ferrari, Bugatti, Porsche, Mercedes Benz, VW, etc. We can more accurately predict weather than any other part of the world.

Please can we have dozy airlines and meteo agencies communicate these data accurately and stop wasting PAX and airline time.

Gaoth Laidir

Impetus wrote: »

I am not blaming flight staff, pilots etc for this. I am blaming the met system put in place by governments. With HIRLAM and HARMONIE - we (Europeans) can tell Americans more accurately where their hurricanes will cause problems. than they can using US met systems. Europe is better at creating food, fashions (Hermes, Louis Vuitton etc), global business operations software (sap.de) cars, aircraft (airbus), creating super cars - Ferrari, Bugatti, Porsche, Mercedes Benz, VW, etc. We can more accurately predict weather than any other part of the world.

Please can we have dozy airlines and meteo agencies communicate these data accurately and stop wasting PAX and airline time.

For a start, the Yr.no data for the Med are not from the HiRLAM or Harmonie as it is out of their grid. It uses ECMWF data for the rest of the globe. This is lower resolution.

But it doesn't matter. Unfortunately you don't know more than the flight crew or airline office staff when it comes to all the data required for a flight. Onboard radar, for example, could have been painting a bad picture ahead, provoking the diversion.

You seem to be having a bad day. Have a beer and come back later. Your rant on Europe versus the Rest of the World is pure embarassing.

Locker10a

So, this thread is spiralling in the same direction as Irma.....
Basically the weather information available to air-traffic control and airlines is extremely accurate it's in their absolute interest to avoid any delays weather or otherwise, as delays cost money. So you don't need to worry about airlines being lackadaisical with weather delays etc. There are many factors to take into account including fuel on board ,remaining legal flight hours for the crew, possible alternative airports for diversion and the facilities there. Trust me when I say a lot of thought is put into it and it's part of the complex operation of any airline and at the heart of that is minimising disruption.

smurfjed

It really depends on the aircraft, in most cases all that the crew will receive is actual weather at a time before the flight takes off and a forecast, then in flight they can get the ATIS which gives the actual weather conditions. They will not receive any weather for areas around an airport unless there is significant weather. Its also possible to get the actual/forecast inflight if its transmitted or if you aircraft has the appropriate communication equipment.
There are numerous APP's or sites that show actual weather based on radar, but these are not available to us during flight outside the USA. We do not have wifi so we cannot use these APP's nor would they be considered a legitimate source of information.
Your yr.no site wouldn't mention specific aviation weather such as wind shear, so while you might have thought the weather was suitable, the airport might be experiencing a weather phenomena that would make the crew divert.
And you most certainly do not pay MY salary.

Impetus

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

For a start, the Yr.no data for the Med are not from the HiRLAM or Harmonie as it is out of their grid. It uses ECMWF data for the rest of the globe. This is lower resolution.

But it doesn't matter. Unfortunately you don't know more than the flight crew or airline office staff when it comes to all the data required for a flight. Onboard radar, for example, could have been painting a bad picture ahead, provoking the diversion.

You seem to be having a bad day. Have a beer and come back later. Your rant on Europe versus the Rest of the World is pure embarassing.

yr.no is HIRLAM based same as met.ie. The problem is that met.ie does not deliver the output accurately. And I suspect dozy Italians are even worse than Oirish at passing data down the line. Failing that, there will be a strike. In any event, theft of public money, gross incompetence and time wasting. Time to fire the lot of them.....! - over paid and incompetent, like many agencies of gov.ie

Locker10a

Impetus wrote: »

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

For a start, the Yr.no data for the Med are not from the HiRLAM or Harmonie as it is out of their grid. It uses ECMWF data for the rest of the globe. This is lower resolution.

But it doesn't matter. Unfortunately you don't know more than the flight crew or airline office staff when it comes to all the data required for a flight. Onboard radar, for example, could have been painting a bad picture ahead, provoking the diversion.

You seem to be having a bad day. Have a beer and come back later. Your rant on Europe versus the Rest of the World is pure embarassing.

yr.no  is HIRLAM based same as met.ie.   The problem is that met.ie does not deliver the output accurately.     And I suspect dozy Italians are even worse than Oirish at passing data down the line.   Failing that, there will be a strike.   In any event, theft of public money, gross incompetence and  time wasting.  Time to fire the lot of them.....!  - over paid and incompetent, like many  agencies of gov.ie

Seriously,.....are ya well ?

Impetus

smurfjed wrote: »

It really depends on the aircraft, in most cases all that the crew will receive is actual weather at a time before the flight takes off and a forecast, then in flight they can get the ATIS which gives the actual weather conditions. They will not receive any weather for areas around an airport unless there is significant weather. Its also possible to get the actual/forecast inflight if its transmitted or if you aircraft has the appropriate communication equipment.
There are numerous APP's or sites that show actual weather based on radar, but these are not available to us during flight outside the USA. We do not have wifi so we cannot use these APP's nor would they be considered a legitimate source of information.
Your yr.no site wouldn't mention specific aviation weather such as wind shear, so while you might have thought the weather was suitable, the airport might be experiencing a weather phenomena that would make the crew divert.
And you most certainly do not pay MY salary.

Thank you for being au point. I don't think wind shear was an issue in this case.

Irrespective of how many flights one might take on your employers airline. Chances are I pay (some part) of your salary.

Tenger

Impetus wrote: »

yr.no is HIRLAM based same as met.ie. The problem is that met.ie does not deliver the output accurately. And I suspect dozy Italians are even worse than Oirish at passing data down the line. Failing that, there will be a strike. In any event, theft of public money, gross incompetence and time wasting. Time to fire the lot of them.....! - over paid and incompetent, like many agencies of gov.ie

Yeah, this thread is getting locked. Next time phrase your rant/query in a non-accusatory manner. And let's left the national stereotyping to After Hours. I'm sure this will fuel your theory on those 'in power' maintaining the status quo however.