Impact of North Korean war on global markets?

BrokenArrows

What does everyone think about the impact a war in North Korea will gave on global markets.

North Korea affects all the big markets in the world. China, Russia, USA, Japan, South Korea are all directly involved.

Historically the USA stocks perform well when the USA starts a new war but i dont see the same being true for the other countries involved.

Currently i have about 40% of my investments in the Asian markets and Australia and am currently considering whether to pull these in light of the growing tensions in the area. Granted then tensions have been growing for some time now but the launching of a missile over Japan is a new step towards aggression.

Sabre Man

If North Korea wanted to start a war they could have done so already. I think they're just looking for attention/concessions.

Any war would guarantee their destruction, unless China steps in, which they said they won't if NK attacks first. If USA attacks first, South Korea and probably also Japan will suffer massively, so USA can't attack first.

Stalemate.

stevedublin

China is the second largest economy in the world and Japan is the third.
Australia exports a lot of commodities to these two so would be effected by a war.
The impact of a Korean war is likely to be huge, imho.

Cute Hoor

Sabre Man wrote: »

If North Korea wanted to start a war they could have done so already. I think they're just looking for attention/concessions.

Sabre rattling Man

BrokenArrows

They could be attention seeking and probably are.
But there is a different between the attention seeking of the early 1990's and the attention seeking of today.

Today they do have nuclear weapons.
Today they do have intercontinental ballistic missile ability.

There gets a point when someone makes enough threats and someone calls their bluff and they need to follow through.

They fired a missile over Japan. What if something went wrong and the missile went of course and hit a civilian population. NK is surrounded by multiple countries and that could easily occur.

stevedublin wrote: »

China is the second largest economy in the world and Japan is the third.
Australia exports a lot of commodities to these two so would be effected by a war.
The impact of a Korean war is likely to be huge, imho.

Yes thats my concern. The whole area is interconnected.

ZeroThreat

may let some people buy into bitcoins at a lower base price.

fxotoole

BrokenArrows wrote: »

What does everyone think about the impact a war in North Korea will gave on global markets.

Ain't gonna happen mate. Sit back, chill out, and crack open a cider. Nothing to see here.

stevedublin

fxotoole wrote: »

Ain't gonna happen mate. Sit back, chill out, and crack open a cider. Nothing to see here.

not sure if you are serious, but China recently distancing itself from North Korea makes war more likely imho. (North Korea is now more isolated and makes a military option more palatable for US/Japan).

Anonrereg

North Korea wouldn't last 5 seconds in a war. Over two thirds of the population (including the military) don't have a healthy regular diet, most of them are lucky to get a handful of meals in a week. Other than their ICBM technology everything else is from the cold war era.

Their Sabre rattling and showing off it's just elevated to the point it's at because China Russia and the USA are tired of the cranky out of control child and their not going to give it any more sweeties.

As for NK influence in foreign markets, yes they have multiple businesses across the globe but all of capital raised from these businesses goes directly into the the 'Royal' family's coffers and very little of it is invested back into the markets that they're involved in.

It's what would happen post a North Korean demolition that's the worry. No way China, and Russia would have the US occupying land bordering them.

North Korea are only still standing because of China, and I expect that to stay the same.

The only thing that will change that is NK hitting the US/SK/Japan with a rocket.

ZeroThreat

RoboKlopp wrote: »

It's what would happen post a North Korean demolition that's the worry. No way China, and Russia would have the US occupying land bordering them.

North Korea are only still standing because of China, and I expect that to stay the same.

The only thing that will change that is NK hitting the US/SK/Japan with a rocket.

Did Russia not move a lot of military units to near their border with N. Korea a couple of months back?

If things do go pear shaped, both them and the Chinese will want to claim their chunk of the Korean peninsula.

MickDoyle1979

Kim Jong Un has a limited window for his nuclear arsenal to be usable.
At the moment the US Navy has a fleet of missile armed ships in the Pacific that are capable of hitting missiles in flight - although not with 100% guarantee - plus on the west coast of the US there are anti-missile batteries.
Presumably the Americans are working on ever more advanced weapons which they will not only use to protect themselves with but will share with Japan and South Korea.
Japan is considering changing their constitution to allow offensive war and are considering arming themselves with nukes - they already use nuclear power so they can rapidly produce weapons grade uranium and plutonium.
His conventional weapons are already obsolete - his army is armed with guns and tanks from the 1950s and 1960s which are no match for anything the Americans and South Koreans possess.
His only hope is a massed artillery barrage on Seoul and other cities followed by a mass armor and infantry assault through the mine fields and fortifications along the DMZ that might penetrate many miles at several points before being pounded from the air and annihilated by American and South Korea ground forces.
Kim would probably take refuge in a deep bunker inside some North Korean mountain until it was all over.
Were the NK regime to collapse there would probably be a massive famine and millions of refugees would flow across both the Chinese and South Korean frontiers.
The likely outcome instead would be a rebuilding program led by China that would replace Kim but leave the regime and the militarized border in place.

Anonrereg

Japan is re-arming in general because they don't want to rely on US forces stationed in Japan and the US doesn't want to pay for troops being stationed in Japan.

As for building a nuclear arsenal China and Russia as well as 6 other nations have a say in that I believe. If these nations won't allow Iran and NK to continue they're nuclear programs then out of principle they can't allow Japan to do the same.

Yes the US has anti-missile defenses both at sea and on Lang however they were designed to take out conventional ICBMS just within our atmosphere but doing this with a nuke would still cause an emp wave and potentially expose millions to nuclear fallout in order to do this it would have to target and destroy the ICBM before it re enters the atmosphere which these defense cannot do

MickDoyle1979

The US and Japan could choose to ignore the objections of China and Russia and the rest. What could they do to stop them? Nothing.

An emp wave and nuclear fallout from an upper atmospheric explosion is preferable compared to millions being killed directly from an airburst thousands of feet above the ground that would create a fireball that touched the ground and a mushroom cloud that sucked up tons of radioactive debris that was carried on the wind for thousands of miles.

Anonrereg

Yeah the US could choose to ignore the rest especially under Trump's reign as president but I think Japan would be a little more hesitant after all Russia and China have no problem with confronting the US, plus Japan is smack bang in the middle of their sphere of influence.

It would have been nice if the "Star Wars" program delivered what was promised. But yes your somewhat right if it comes to it, an upper atmosphere detonation is the best possible outcome but obviously it's preferable if doesn't happen at all. Of course that's if the missile defense system can actually lock on and hit the bloody thing.

Seeing as NK made claims of successful Hydrogen bomb detonations I would hedge on their use in lieu of nuclear ICBMs as NK has always wanted to bring SK into the fold and free them of their "misguided" ways, pretty hard to do when it's irradiated to all hell.

In any case I think this will all blow over or if it has to come to it the Russians and Chinese will be the first in any preemptive maneuvers.

Jesus Wept

fxotoole wrote: »

Ain't gonna happen mate. Sit back, chill out, and crack open a cider. Nothing to see here.

Agree. It'll all be grand. I'm calm as a hindu cow.

ixus

Trump is an unknown quantity. His reaction and counter provocation is negative.

If a NK missile landed in Japan or SK, I would expect a -10% reaction similar to Brexit, Trump etc where you have the markets bid, discounting a probability.

If that happened, it's down to the US & China reactions and investor sentiment.

A real event would easily take 20/30% of equity prices through the impacts on SK and Japan alone I should think.

I should imagine certain investors have lightened over exposure to Asia and/or bought short term protection.

dealhunter1985

Things seem to have gotten somewhat quieter on the North Korean front... Not that the markets gave it any consideration anyway. That coupled with the strong close to q3, what's in store for the final quarter? Looks like the markets can only go one way and that's up...

tniazi

It is been a long time of NK threat, market is now not giving any special attention. If something big happens then for sure USD down, EURO up