Sell or hold forward stores

cacs

I see prices are back in the marts for for cattle. I have a bunch i could do with moving on.. i was wondering should i hold and wait for the guys filling sheds. I think the bad weather in the west put a dampener on things this week. I see the factories are up to their old tricks

Dozer1

holding mine here too I guess its down to whether you have enough grass to hold them, I have so they'll stay till Oct

cacs

Dozer1 wrote: »

holding mine here too I guess its down to whether you have enough grass to hold them, I have so they'll stay till Oct

Yea its a hard call house everything Early beacuse if grass or sell now in a downish market and have grass till November

Bass Reeves

What kind of cattle are they. It is a real conundrum. My young fella is giving out to me over buying light store over last month as he considers that they may drop more. It will be at least November before factory prices start to rise. If cattle are heavy up over 500 kgs I be selling. Over next 2-4 weeks processors will fill feedlots for cattle post Christmas. These feedlots want cattle that can be slaughtered sub 30 months from Christmas week to mid February. They may also want cattle for the pre Christmas market, to be slaughtered from early November on.

For all the exporting there are still lots of cattle in the country.The kill is over 3k above this time last year. Heavy stores will not put weigh on like light cattle and will eat way more grass and waste more as well. Every day you delay housing of the rest of the stock is saving 70c+/head/day. If you can keep lighter stores out 30 days longer that is saving 25+ euro/head. If you feed 2kgs/head to heavy store to keep flesh on them for 70ish days @24c/kg that 35 euro. 2 heavy stores will eat as much grass as 3-4 lightish store so you need to do 100/head more to break even.

cacs

Bass Reeves wrote: »

What kind of cattle are they. It is a real conundrum. My young fella is giving out to me over buying light store over last month as he considers that they may drop more. It will be at least November before factory prices start to rise. If cattle are heavy up over 500 kgs I be selling. Over next 2-4 weeks processors will fill feedlots for cattle post Christmas. These feedlots want cattle that can be slaughtered sub 30 months from Christmas week to mid February. They may also want cattle for the pre Christmas market, to be slaughtered from early November on.

For all the exporting there are still lots of cattle in the country.The kill is over 3k above this time last year. Heavy stores will not put weigh on like light cattle and will eat way more grass and waste more as well. Every day you delay housing of the rest of the stock is saving 70c+/head/day. If you can keep lighter stores out 30 days longer that is saving 25+ euro/head. If you feed 2kgs/head to heavy store to keep flesh on them for 70ish days @24c/kg that 35 euro. 2 heavy stores will eat as much grass as 3-4 lightish store so you need to do 100/head more to break even.

Thanks very much for that. That's super advice. They are really good forward stores a bunch of Lim x bullocks and heifers I put around 750 of nuts into them in the last six weeks and have been best quality after grass. There is seven in it. There have all done really well great ends on them and good fat cover, they are not slaughter fit yet. They are all U maybe one E the bullocks 550-600 kg the heifers did not do aswell around 450 -475 the smallest is thick fat and could be killed now she's a bit small I know. I know when I house the cows and weanlings it cost €200/ week to keep them on slats. I know Teagasc say start closing up paddocks in early October. I am from mayo April is an early turn out. Nothing is going this year until I have the place cleaned. I will come back with urea in mid Feb to all my dry ground and I will good grass for mid march. Thanks for the above advice

cacs

Bass Reeves wrote: »

What kind of cattle are they. It is a real conundrum. My young fella is giving out to me over buying light store over last month as he considers that they may drop more. It will be at least November before factory prices start to rise. If cattle are heavy up over 500 kgs I be selling. Over next 2-4 weeks processors will fill feedlots for cattle post Christmas. These feedlots want cattle that can be slaughtered sub 30 months from Christmas week to mid February. They may also want cattle for the pre Christmas market, to be slaughtered from early November on.

For all the exporting there are still lots of cattle in the country.The kill is over 3k above this time last year. Heavy stores will not put weigh on like light cattle and will eat way more grass and waste more as well. Every day you delay housing of the rest of the stock is saving 70c+/head/day. If you can keep lighter stores out 30 days longer that is saving 25+ euro/head. If you feed 2kgs/head to heavy store to keep flesh on them for 70ish days @24c/kg that 35 euro. 2 heavy stores will eat as much grass as 3-4 lightish store so you need to do 100/head more to break even.

On another note. I know nothing about it and i have never done, I know they are light in frame and smaller than they should be, but if i am not happy with the price i am getting would it worth housing them and building them up to adlib nuts for 4-6weeks then factory them.
They would be ready but smallish. Also i am not in Bord Bia.

Bass Reeves

cathal irwin wrote: »

Thanks very much for that. That's super advice. They are really good forward stores a bunch of Lim x bullocks and heifers I put around 750 of nuts into them in the last six weeks and have been best quality after grass. There is seven in it. There have all done really well great ends on them and good fat cover, they are not slaughter fit yet. They are all U maybe one E the bullocks 550-600 kg the heifers did not do aswell around 450 -475 the smallest is thick fat and could be killed now she's a bit small I know. I know when I house the cows and weanlings it cost €200/ week to keep them on slats. I know Teagasc say start closing up paddocks in early October. I am from mayo April is an early turn out. Nothing is going this year until I have the place cleaned. I will come back with urea in mid Feb to all my dry ground and I will good grass for mid march. Thanks for the above advice

To understand cots of production you have to break it down to cost/animal/day or to winter or carry over the year It is real easy cost/kg for ration and how many kgs/head/day. While pit silage is hard to cost bale silage is fairly easy. Number of bales/acre divided onto cost of fertlizer, slurry, baling and rented land if using that.When you understand the cost of production and the way it changes over the year you can make decisions with more certainity

You can always hedge your bets sell the heavy bullocks and the few heavy heifers as they will consume the most. Hold the lighter sub 450kg heifers as these will be the ones that put on the cheapest weight for you.

cacs

Bass Reeves wrote: »

To understand cots of production you have to break it down to cost/animal/day or to winter or carry over the year It is real easy cost/kg for ration and how many kgs/head/day. While pit silage is hard to cost bale silage is fairly easy. Number of bales/acre divided onto cost of fertlizer, slurry, baling and rented land if using that.When you understand the cost of production and the way it changes over the year you can make decisions with more certainity

You can always hedge your bets sell the heavy bullocks and the few heavy heifers as they will consume the most. Hold the lighter sub 450kg heifers as these will be the ones that put on the cheapest weight for you.

That is exactly my thinking. I hate throwing away cattle at the mart as it takes a long time and a lot of luck to get the that far when you breed your own.
Thanks

Bass Reeves

cathal irwin wrote: »

On another note. I know nothing about it and i have never done, I know they are light in frame and smaller than they should be, but if i am not happy with the price i am getting would it worth housing them and building them up to adlib nuts for 4-6weeks then factory them.
They would be ready but smallish. Also i am not in Bord Bia.

IMO if you are not in board bia you are wasting your time finishing cattle now you could get into BB in a 6-8 week time frame. You would have to feed for longer than 6-8 weeks and you would have to try to get to mid November before selling. But trying to gauge if it is profitable is gazing into the crystal ball. I have exited winter finishing as costs are too high and processors know when cattle are being fed you have to sell within a certain time frame. Those heavy bullocks will eat 12+ kgs of nuts, some silage and straw. What will a good quality finishing nut cost you 240/ton add 50c/day for straw and silage dose with an oral dose.

Just say you have to feed for 60 days with 12kgs/day( and it will rise close to finish) by 24c/kg is 170 euro add in 30 euro forstraw and silage and 20 for dosing diesel etc and you are adding 220/head for 60 days for every 10 days after that add 35 euro. With that feeding will they do 1.4kgs LW/day. To make a profit you will need the price to be over 4 euro/kg DW

cacs

Bass Reeves wrote: »

IMO if you are not in board bia you are wasting your time finishing cattle now you could get into BB in a 6-8 week time frame. You would have to feed for longer than 6-8 weeks and you would have to try to get to mid November before selling. But trying to gauge if it is profitable is gazing into the crystal ball. I have exited winter finishing as costs are too high and processors know when cattle are being fed you have to sell within a certain time frame. Those heavy bullocks will eat 12+ kgs of nuts, some silage and straw. What will a good quality finishing nut cost you 240/ton add 50c/day for straw and silage dose with an oral dose.

Just say you have to feed for 60 days with 12kgs/day( and it will rise close to finish) by 24c/kg is 170 euro add in 30 euro forstraw and silage and 20 for dosing diesel etc and you are adding 220/head for 60 days for every 10 days after that add 35 euro. With that feeding will they do 1.4kgs LW/day. To make a profit you will need the price to be over 4 euro/kg DW

Thanks for that. Let them off and let someone else at it.

Bass Reeves

As a matter what price/kg are these cattle making at present in the mart.

Willfarman

Sell sell sell. I would agree with your young lad bass. You'll buy the same cattle in October for less money and they'll be 30 kgs heavier.

cute geoge

Willfarman wrote: »

Sell sell sell. I would agree with your young lad bass. You'll buy the same cattle in October for less money and they'll be 30 kgs heavier.

PANIC,PANIC !!!!
SELL,SELL!!!
I love the way lads filling sheds operate especially after a few weeks of rain and it is the same story every year with the marts glutted
I would not panic just yet anyway ,the factories won,t be able to drop the prices much more anyway and if the weather picks up it will put a floor under prices!!!

Bass Reeves

cute geoge wrote: »

PANIC,PANIC !!!!
SELL,SELL!!!
I love the way lads filling sheds operate especially after a few weeks of rain and it is the same story every year with the marts glutted
I would not panic just yet anyway ,the factories won,t be able to drop the prices much more anyway and if the weather picks up it will put a floor under prices!!!

If you do not need the grass it may be wort the gamble. however if you intend to hold stores that will have to be replaced with silage and ratio due to early housing then you are at nothing. The numbers are totally against us for the next 3 months. The kill has jumped to 4K extra cattle/week. we still have 45K extra cattle to kill before year end. Most of these will be slaughtered over the next 10 weeks. The kill hit 35K at one stage last year add another 4K and you are hitting 40K/week. Processors will start to stack up cattle and lads will have to wait 2-3 weeks to kill them.

What will the price bottom out at for steers 3.6?. 3.5?, per kg. What is it this week 3.80/kg?. At 3.8/kg cattle are 25c/kg lower than the late June/July price and about 35-40c/kg off the peak price. Remember finishers work off a margin and reflect that back to store producers. There costs remain the same so that the complete drop in a finished animal has to be pass back at a lower weight.

For example a finisher putting 100kgs LW on cattle and killing at 360kgs DW ( 660kgsLW) is netting a 100 euro/head less. If he is buying 560kg store to maintain his margin he should be paying 18c/kg less for his store. However with a negative outlook until after Christmas at least( it was April last year before prices began to rise) and entering a higher cost period this should push the possible drop above 20c/kg.

Cavanjack

Have a good few to buy here but won't be buying now till the glut comes in the marts. When you consider the way the way beef is falling, store prices should be well back in a couple of months.
A good r+ underage Charolais @400kg DW won't come into €1600 now. To buy the same animal to kill this time next year say at 500kg what can I afford to pay for him? Not what they are making now anyway. Sell now

cacs

Cavanjack wrote: »

Have a good few to buy here but won't be buying now till the glut comes in the marts. When you consider the way the way beef is falling, store prices should be well back in a couple of months.
A good r+ underage Charolais @400kg DW won't come into €1600 now. To buy the same animal to kill this time next year say at 500kg what can I afford to pay for him? Not what they are making now anyway. Sell now

Thanks a million it's great to hear from the other side of the fence

cacs

cute geoge wrote: »

PANIC,PANIC !!!!
SELL,SELL!!!
I love the way lads filling sheds operate especially after a few weeks of rain and it is the same story every year with the marts glutted
I would not panic just yet anyway ,the factories won,t be able to drop the prices much more anyway and if the weather picks up it will put a floor under prices!!!

I sold today absolutely delighted best bullock made €2.46 per kg and worst made €2.32/kg heifers made €2.10-2.38 per kg. I don't know how the next person will make money

Robson99

Have a bunch of heifers between 550 and 600 kgs.Ave 20 months.
Will bring to the knife but not sure whether to house now and finish at end of November or leave out for 4 weeks and finish between xmas and the New Year with carcasses 400kgs+