Juddmonte International 2017

tryfix

A small but very tasty field of 7 go to post with Barney Roy and Churchill vying for favouritism around the 5/2 mark with Ulysses a touch longer and then the likes of Cliffs Of Moher and Shutter Speed are in single figures. Decorated Knight can be had at 16/1 and My Dream Boat is out around the 40/1 mark.


It's often a strange race on a strange track so it'd be wise not to go overboard on the front horses.

I feel Barney Roy is a little overestimated, he's now 3lb worse off with Ulysses and Ulysses has shown he'll have no problem staying the trip after his gritty staying on performance behind Enable in the King George.

Churchill is an enigma, he was a better horse than the Barney Roy that beat him at Goodwood and if he's back to form the step up in trip should suit him well. He's the best horse in the race.

Cliffs Of Moher was disappointing in the Eclipse and I'm not sure whether the incident in the race that saw him snatching up was enough to convince me of his chances of overturning that form. Both he and Decorated Knight are better than their Eclipse form according to their trainers.

Shutter Speed has quite moderate form and is trading on potential, don't think her price is justified but who knows what she can actually achieve. My Dream Boat appears to be gone at this level.

Tactics will be interesting and the one horse who could spring a surprise win from the front is Cliffs Of Moher. Churchill needs something to tow him along so that he can grind out a staying on win, but Cliffs Of Moher has enough stamina to be a hard horse to pass if he gets to the front.

Ulysses for me is the most likely winner, he's improved hugely and now has the tactical speed to get out of trouble compared to his 3yo days.

diomed

I think it is a very interesting race for a smallish field.
The danger is the principals will think they have the race to themselves.

My first two eliminations are My Dream Boat and Decorated Knight as I think their form is a little below the rest.
Shutter Speed won a 5 runner 10f Musidora, but I think she does not really get 10f. John Gosden said as much.
In the 16 runner 10f+ Prix de Diane I think the slightly longer distance and extra pace from a big field was too much.

That leaves Churchill, Cliff Of Moher, Barney Roy, Ulysses.
Churchill has been favourite in all his nine races. He is moving up in distance more than 2f, and is coming off a defeat on this ground.
Strange that Churchill, Cliff Of Moher, and Ulysses were all beaten 4 1/2 lengths in their last race.

Ulysses had a 12f race 25 days ago giving a stone to a top filly.
I'll pick Barney Roy.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

I think it is a very interesting race for a smallish field.
The danger is the principals will think they have the race to themselves.

My first two eliminations are My Dream Boat and Decorated Knight as I think their form is a little below the rest.
Shutter Speed won a 5 runner 10f Musidora, but I think she does not really get 10f. John Gosden said as much.
In the 16 runner 10f+ Prix de Diane I think the slightly longer distance and extra pace from a big field was too much.

That leaves Churchill, Cliff Of Moher, Barney Roy, Ulysses.
Churchill has been favourite in all his nine races. He is moving up in distance more than 2f, and is coming off a defeat on this ground.
Strange that Churchill, Cliff Of Moher, and Ulysses were all beaten 4 1/2 lengths in their last race.

Ulysses had a 12f race 25 days ago giving a stone to a top filly.
I'll pick Barney Roy.

Good points, I just think that Barney Roy was very well forward physically all year and hasn't been able to put races to bed in the style of a very good horse. He's a solid lump of a horse who might need another year to turn all that raw strength into a more highly polished state.

It's a race where there are a lot of horses maturing quickly and all the more puzzling for that.

Slattsy

Between the favs. Will go with Churchill at the prices.

tryfix

Slattsy wrote: »

Between the favs. Will go with Churchill at the prices.

Makes sense, Coolmore had last year's good second Highland Reel for this if they'd wanted and it may be telling that they sent the two 3yos instead.

mailburner

happy to take ulysses at a point bigger that the top two but really like the odds
on a top two finish at 6/5

cracksman should be very hard to beat also in fairness

diomed

I didn't realise today is Wednesday and York is on the TV.

Slattsy

Lot of rain around.

Lt Dan

Going to keep my trust in Churchill for this on these grounds

1. Ulysees is better on good ground, he had a tough race in the King George where he ran very well

2. Churchill has been well rested, slight worry , he has a lot a speed on the dam side, are ye confident that he will get the trip? Word is Seamie's horse is going well back home. Complete Blind faith in O'Brien /Moore here to be honest, odds look nice enough

3. Barney Roy is decent, but he could not beat a horse who was giving him weight.

4. Shutter Speed might actually likes some juice in the ground, she seemed to found the ground too fast for her liking the last day and although she came from a wide draw, she did not seem to get the distance. She would like a slower pace. I fear that she was put into this race simply because the sponsoring wanted a runner. Not like them to turf their 3 year fillies into race like this without the form to back it up .Lord Grimthorpe the Racing Manager is the chairman of the course. She will do very well to place

5. As good as Decorated Knight is, and Atzeni seems to be a good lad to have on the big day (He and Crowley ought to curse themselves for their rides in the Prince of Wales, their horses could have nicked it) , but, not too gone in him or the rest. Despite the odds, York being York , it might be a lot more open than the bookies think

tryfix

Lt Dan wrote: »

Going to keep my trust in Churchill for this on these grounds

1. Ulysees is better on good ground, he had a tough race in the King George where he ran very well

2. Churchill has been well rested, slight worry , he has a lot a speed on the dam side, are ye confident that he will get the trip? Word is Seamie's horse is going well back home. Complete Blind faith in O'Brien /Moore here to be honest, odds look nice enough

3. Barney Roy is decent, but he could not beat a horse who was giving him weight.

4. Shutter Speed might actually likes some juice in the ground, she seemed to found the ground too fast for her liking the last day and although she came from a wide draw, she did not seem to get the distance. She would like a slower pace. I fear that she was put into this race simply because the sponsoring wanted a runner. Not like them to turf their 3 year fillies into race like this without the form to back it up .Lord Grimthorpe the Racing Manager is the chairman of the course. She will do very well to place

5. As good as Decorated Knight is, and Atzeni seems to be a good lad to have on the big day (He and Crowley ought to curse themselves for their rides in the Prince of Wales, their horses could have nicked it) , but, not too gone in him or the rest. Despite the odds, York being York , it might be a lot more open than the bookies think

It is an unbelievably hard race to work out for such a small field.

Even Decorated Knight shouldn't be 20/1 on form, he beat Ulysses fair and square at Ascot and tbf to him he should be a much better horse than he showed in the Eclipse. Is he a bit off form because he's not being nibbled at in the market.

Churchill will stay 10f no problem although the extra 1/2f won't help ( he's similarly bred to the likes of Decorated Knight and Taj Mahal) , he should love the cut in the ground ( his Irish 2,000 Guineas win is the best piece of form in the field ) but I don't like backing superstar 2yo horses to bounce back from a bad run at 3.

Is Barney Roy an actual 12f middle distance horse who was relishing the stamina test at Sandown or did Ulysses go too soon and tie up there on the hill? There's no stiff finish here to bring a horse back to the pack.

As for Cliffs Of Moher, the kind of Derby horses that won this in recent years were superstar OR 126 types, not ones that couldn't hit 120 in that race and yet with the way O'Brien outsiders have been going in it wouldn't be a big surprise if he won.

Ulysses is the uncomplicated one and handled the heavy going at Ascot so a bit of cut will do him no harm at all.

Lt Dan

tryfix wrote: »

It is an unbelievably hard race to work out for such a small field.

Even Decorated Knight shouldn't be 20/1 on form, he beat Ulysses fair and square at Ascot and tbf to him he should be a much better horse than he showed in the Eclipse. Is he a bit off form because he's not being nibbled at in the market.

Churchill will stay 10f no problem although the extra 1/2f won't help ( he's similarly bred to the likes of Decorated Knight and Taj Mahal) , he should love the cut in the ground ( his Irish 2,000 Guineas win is the best piece of form in the field ) but I don't like backing superstar 2yo horses to bounce back from a bad run at 3.

Is Barney Roy an actual 12f middle distance horse who was relishing the stamina test at Sandown or did Ulysses go too soon and tie up there on the hill? There's no stiff finish here to bring a horse back to the pack.

As for Cliffs Of Moher, the kind of Derby horses that won this in recent years were superstar OR 126 types, not ones that couldn't hit 120 in that race and yet with the way O'Brien outsiders have been going in it wouldn't be a big surprise if he won.

Ulysses is the uncomplicated one and handled the heavy going at Ascot so a bit of cut will do him no harm at all.

Agree, with York being York , this is a very open race

Decorated Knight won on soft in Dubai and Tatts Gold Cup, 20/1 is rather large, alright, both him and Ulysees might have made life harder for HR if the jocks ran it differently ( I backed HR that day , but Johnny Murtagh was quick to comment )

Lt Dan

Chapman will annoy a few people. I liked his intro today, and his interview with 'arry was worthwhile, but you could see Ed Chamberlain (I always disliked) look at Matt in disdain. Even apologizing for Matt's interview to Harry , undermining him. You could see Ed insisting that Harry come up to meet the others, but having zero to ask, while the camera still zoomed in at Matt where he was clearly in an pensive mood. Matt asked some harmless enough questions

Sorry, Ed is bland, boring, and limited enough with his vocabulary . It is all about "love", "emotional" "brilliant" , "maestro" etc. You would fear that he will burst into tears sometimes He knows sfa about racing, unlike Matt.

tryfix

What's the feeling on Cracksman in the Voltigeur?

The vibes are great, but they're always great for him. With him being supposedly put away until next year after this run it's no sure thing that Gosden will want him having a hard race before he's put away in case it damages his prospects of winning a GP1 next year.

The only problem is, it's really hard to make a serious case for any of the others. I'll take Venice Beach to put it up to him today.

Cortina_MK_IV

Taking a punt on Shutter Speed and as a Frankie double, James Garfield.

WickIow Brave

Can't wait for this race, gonna be a cracker. Was betwixt and between for ages on who to back. Gone for Decorated Knight e/w (20/1). Beat Ulysses at RA and didn't get the smoothest of runs in the Eclipse. I think he's over priced.

Lt Dan

UK media creaming themselves over Cracksman's very good performance.

Joe_ Public

Nobody has mentioned the Leger but he looks an obvious type for that race to me. The Arc would be very ambitious, even for a place I think.

tryfix

Lt Dan wrote: »

UK media creaming themselves over Cracksman's very good performance.

He was very impressive.

These Frankel's and Soft Ground go very well together, Cracksman is out of a Pivotal filly as well so he was probably in his element. Wouldn't take the form with the 2nd too seriously, that ground looks pretty testing and the 2nd is out of 2 good ground horses

Lt Dan

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Nobody has mentioned the Leger but he looks an obvious type for that race to me. The Arc would be very ambitious, even for a place I think.

Think Gosden told the media that he would be put away for next year, still has to develop etc

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

happy to take ulysses at a point bigger that the top two but really like the odds
on a top two finish at 6/5

cracksman should be very hard to beat also in fairness

easy money :pac:

Lt Dan

Sir Michael Stoute, take a bow. Genius with patience and older boys

Turns out that contrary to views, the Epsom Derby of 2016 was not as bad as people think . Cloth of Stars has since won a Group 1, Ulyses has been nothing but consistent this year .....................

Peintre Celebre

Lt Dan wrote: »

Sir Michael Stoute, take a bow. Genius with patience and older boys

Turns out that contrary to views, the Epsom Derby of 2016 was not as bad as people think . Cloth of Stars has since won a Group 1, Ulyses has been nothing but consistent this year .....................

Cloth of Stars a 10 furlong horse who didn't handle the track. Ulysses far better at four. Wouldn't be adding to the Derby whatsoever bearing in mind the second was beaten in a 2 1/2 mile conditions race lately

diomed

Well done to Ulysses backers. You were counting your money one furlong out.

Joe_ Public

Lt Dan wrote: »

Chapman will annoy a few people. I liked his intro today, and his interview with 'arry was worthwhile, but you could see Ed Chamberlain (I always disliked) look at Matt in disdain. Even apologizing for Matt's interview to Harry , undermining him. You could see Ed insisting that Harry come up to meet the others, but having zero to ask, while the camera still zoomed in at Matt where he was clearly in an pensive mood. Matt asked some harmless enough questions

Sorry, Ed is bland, boring, and limited enough with his vocabulary . It is all about "love", "emotional" "brilliant" , "maestro" etc. You would fear that he will burst into tears sometimes He knows sfa about racing, unlike Matt.

I think you've done Ed Chamberlain a disservice there. Whatever you think of his presenting style, he has a long and deep connection with racing. I remember him doing a racing show on Sky long before he ever got into football. It has always been his first love, hence his readyness to give up the plum Sky job to take a plunge on a show that will only last as long as ITV keep hold of the rights.

I think he does ok. I don't expect any presenter to be providing daily fireworks, as long as he keeps things moving and sets the stage for his analysts and guests, it's job done. That said, Nick Luck would be my preference for the role by a long way.

As for "Chappers", I never imagined even 5 years ago that I'd ever be nostalgia ridden for the days of Big Mac and his oafish antics. Nevertheless, after each successive dose of total cringe from a guy trying way too hard to be the star of every show, that's where I increasingly find myself.

WickIow Brave

Nice to see Churchhill come back to form today. On to the Irish Champion Stakes now I'd imagine.

Slattsy

Pity the ground went soft for Churchill. Moore said he hated it at the Curragh.

Personally, i reckon he just wants good ground, you could see him struggle at Ascot on lightening quick ground.

byronbay2

Joe_ Public wrote: »

As for "Chappers", I never imagined even 5 years ago that I'd ever be nostalgia ridden for the days of Big Mac and his oafish antics. Nevertheless, after each successive dose of total cringe from a guy trying way too hard to be the star of every show, that's where I increasingly find myself.

Don't tell me there are people calling him that now. There is only one "Chappers": Mark Chapman, who presents MOTD2 and The American Football show on BBC. See the first line of his Wikipedia biog below.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Chapman_(broadcaster)

Lt Dan

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I think you've done Ed Chamberlain a disservice there. Whatever you think of his presenting style, he has a long and deep connection with racing. I remember him doing a racing show on Sky long before he ever got into football. It has always been his first love, hence his readyness to give up the plum Sky job to take a plunge on a show that will only last as long as ITV keep hold of the rights.

I think he does ok. I don't expect any presenter to be providing daily fireworks, as long as he keeps things moving and sets the stage for his analysts and guests, it's job done. That said, Nick Luck would be my preference for the role by a long way.

As for "Chappers", I never imagined even 5 years ago that I'd ever be nostalgia ridden for the days of Big Mac and his oafish antics. Nevertheless, after each successive dose of total cringe from a guy trying way too hard to be the star of every show, that's where I increasingly find myself.

Oh , I remember his articles on Saturdays on the Sporting Life website, he use to give tips (does he still? ) I don't doubt his long time link with racing , he made it clear years ago of a desire to present racing on tv. It is his presentation I take real issue with. He would admit that he is not as knowledgeable as others, but he does not have to be, simply facilitate the conversation or better still, make sure the camera shows more horse faces (the equine kind, not human kind)

There was no need for the comments on Chapman today. Or the face pulling

Nick Luck.... UK terrestrial TVs loss , NBC and Racing UK's gain .Viewers make me laugh. They didn't like Luck because he sounded plumy and posh, yet adored one of the biggest Grade A gobs888tes in Alstair Down , the man who swallowed the dictionary, using 12 words when 5 would do, a great man for hindsight and sopping obituaries (they were good) or the pawning over men like Peter O'Sullivan. As great as Borough Scott is , he is hardly a plain talking man of the people sort

Joe_ Public

Lt Dan wrote: »

Oh , I remember his articles on Saturdays on the Sporting Life website, he use to give tips (does he still? ) I don't doubt his long time link with racing , he made it clear years ago of a desire to present racing on tv. It is his presentation I take real issue with. He would admit that he is not as knowledgeable as others, but he does not have to be, simply facilitate the conversation or better still, make sure the camera shows more horse faces (the equine kind, not human kind)

There was no need for the comments on Chapman today. Or the face pulling

Nick Luck.... UK terrestrial TVs loss , NBC and Racing UK's gain .Viewers make me laugh. They didn't like Luck because he sounded plumy and posh, yet adored one of the biggest Grade A gobs888tes in Alstair Down , the man who swallowed the dictionary, using 12 words when 5 would do, a great man for hindsight and sopping obituaries (they were good) or the pawning over men like Peter O'Sullivan. As great as Borough Scott is , he is hardly a plain talking man of the people sort

I missed the Chapman interview earlier, so can't comment on that. In general, I think Ed does ok so we'll just have to agree to disagree on that. I don't mind him being bland or boring, I'd say Gary OBrien is a little bit bland on ATR and I mean that as no disrespect, because I think he is a hell of a good broadcaster who doesn't need to project himself in any way to do a decent job.

I think Alastair Down is a very talented broadcaster and writer, but whenever I hear or read him waxing lyrical and brownnosing some feudal lord of the game, I can't help thinkign back to the young(er) firebrand who was willing to label jockeys as trainers as cheats and go to court to fight his case. I guess there was little enough future in the game in that approach.

tinpib

Dunno if many were watching the 510pm from Bath there :pac:

But as a non-expert I thought that was amazing from DeSouza, to get the odds on fav from near last to win it. Perfectly judged. Was out to around 7.0 coming into the straight.

tryfix

Decorated Knight, whose Group 1 wins this term have established him as a firm favourite at Roger Charlton's yard, was found to have pulled muscles after his fifth-placed finish in Wednesday's Juddmonte International Stakes at York.

http://bloodstock.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/meeting_of_cards.sd?crs_id=178&r_date=2017-08-27

Yet again there are excuses for Decorated Knight.

FWIW I think this fellow is best suited to racing against Gp3 and Gp2 company in Ireland where he can come with a flying finish to gobble up the field in the last furlong.