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Who is underpriced?

  • 10-08-2017 10:55pm
    Registered Users Posts: 47 ✭✭✭ TheDazzler

    We often ask, "who will score the most points between player X and player Y?" but often what we should be thinking about is, "who will score well compared to their price point?" (or basically, who is underpriced?)
    The cheaper, underpriced players allow us more budget to spend on the big super premiums, so they are hugely important players. Getting in early on the new seasons cheap bandwagons is always a good indicator for having a good season.

    So how do we find these players?
    FPL does a fairly decent job of pricing players according to how likely they are to score points. But these players emerge when situations change, like when a player moves club.
    A good example is Walker being priced at a reasonable £6.5m when still a Spurs player. When he moved to Man City it meant Trippier (possibly a better option anyway) getting promoted to his spot. Trippier @ £5.5m is playing in the same attacking Spurs side (with excellent clean sheet potential) and arguably has better attacking prospects. He is a prime example of a £6.5m-ish value player who costs a full £1.0m less.
    Yes, we all know about that one and he would have been in all our sides if it wasn't for his untimely injury. Are there others?
    Who is the 'Trippier' beneficiary for Andre Grays move to Watford?
    Perhaps Vokes or Barnes? But could it be our own Jon Walters? And will he get Grays pens too?
    Obviously VVD (£5.5m) will be underpriced if he moves to either Pool/Chelsea.
    Fosu Mensah (£4.5m) could certainly be that at Palace. If he takes the wing back spot currently occupied by Townsend, he could be a great enabler.
    Tom Carroll (£4.5m) at Swansea is a good pick in his own right. He has some set pieces and has a degree of goal and assist potential. Lovely for a £4.5m mid. If Siggy goes to Everton (unfortunately now looking less likely due a breakdown in talks and possibly the Barkley situation), Carroll could become a monster. He would take the majority of set pieces and would become a major player for Swansea. He could be reasonably played in our first XI most weeks. A mini Mahrez, if you will.
    If Barkley goes to Spurs then the Siggy-> Everton looks back on. And Barkley (£7.5m) at Spurs could be a really interesting option.
    Loftus Cheek (£4.5m) could be another one moving to Palace.
    Iwobi (£5.5m) is an Arsene favourite. Is this his breakout year?

    There is another way players can be underpriced, kind fixture runs (or overpriced during difficult fixture runs which is equally important).
    If we look at someone like Alonso, we can see that he scored 5.7pts/game last season. But we're talking about over the course of the season. Did he have peaks and troughs? Yes of course, it's the nature of FPL point scoring. Can we predict these peaks and troughs? Not completely accurately but we can have good indicators. Alonso's points potential is clearly higher in a home game against Huddersfield than it is in an away game against Man City. In a series of kind fixtures, Alonso's points potential might be 8pt+/game. In a series of poor fixtures, it might be <4pts/game.
    But Alonso is one of those premiums that we may think of as a "season keeper", a set and forget. Unless we have lots of free transfers, he's not one we really want to be chopping and changing in and out of. Stored value might affect that anyway. Premium players are less prone to fixture run vagaries in any case. What I'm really driving at is the medium and lower priced players who fixtures runs really affect significantly.

    So when we look at someone interesting like Chicarito, we can look at fixtures. The opening fixtures are horrible, he's still adjusting to the team. I'll wait and see and reconsider when kinder fixtures arrive after a few weeks.
    A team like Burnley has very mixed fixtures. 4 very good home fixtures and 4 very bad away fixtures in the opening 8. For a team like Burnley who are extremely efficient at home and extremely inefficient away, they are perfect fixtures for a cheap rotating defender. But not so good at all for someone like Jon Walters, who I am interested in, due to the fact that I don't want to be benching £5.5m of my budget every 2nd week.
    I think Everton could be very interesting this year but their opening fixtures are horrible. The good thing about having horrible fixtures is that good runs have to come along at some point. And with Everton, they do arrive after the first 5GWs for an extended period. Hopefully we can pick up some of their players then for depressed prices (undervalued).

    Okay, we all know this stuff instinctively but I think we sometimes say to ourselves, "oh I won't buy him, they are in a terrible run."
    They lost games they were expected to lose. Now they enter a period of games they are expected to win, hence their players will score more points. If you want to be on the next bandwagon before the crowd, look at the fixture list.
    Stoke are another one. They could be bottom after 8 games due to their fixtures. By GW21 they could be back in the mid table position they have filled for the last 4 years (9th, 9th, 9th, 11th?).
    Southampton have the most lopsided fixture list I think I've ever seen.
    In their first 11 games they play only 1 top 7 team from last season and that's Man Utd at home. In the next 10, they play 7 against the top 7 from last year. In the next 11 games, 2 games are against top 7 and again both at home. And their last 7 games have 4 against the top 7.
    All Southampton players are underpriced in those opening 11 games. All are overpriced in the following 10!

    Some peoplke say that they don't like to plan too many transfer ahead. I think at least in a general sense, you could plan almost the entire season! A lot of players are thinking they will go without Kane initially and will possibly pick him in GW3. Think bigger and longer! It doesn't have to be specifically, "I'll sell player X in GW21 and buy player Y", it can just be, "I should be considering transitioning from team X around GW20 to team Y." Being aware of that weeks in advance can be helpful. In my best season, I used to write down on countless sheets of paper possible permutations for my team up to 10 weeks ahead! I would be picking captains that far ahead and those possible transfers helped me transition towards that.
    It is not a hard and fast rule obviously, as FPL is so dynamic. Injuries, players sold in windows, players changing position/role at a club are obviously factors too. Sometimes you won't want any player from team Y with the good fixtures. Sometimes form will trump fixtures.
    Anyway in answer to my own question of who is underpriced, Southampton, Southampton, Southampton :D
    We should be looking at Betrand as a £6.5m.............until he's a £4.5 eleven weeks later!
    Think about what a player is priced at. Then think about whether he is underpriced or overpriced with regard to his upcoming run of games. Think about entry and exit dates for players to your team (very few players, if any, actually do stay in your team the entire season).
    Nothing revolutionary but worth reminding ourselves, I think.
    A thing I noticed that perhaps has been mentioned on here but I haven't seen it anywhere. What the hell is happening in GW9?
    Everton vs Arsenal is missing and is a TBA fixture at the bottom of their fixture lists???


  • Registered Users Posts: 47,771 ✭✭✭✭ km79

    That's a lot of words
    I'll read it in the morning
    Time for bed :)

  • Registered Users Posts: 42,030 ✭✭✭✭ Scorpion Sting

    km79 wrote: »
    That's a lot of words
    I'll read it in the morning
    Time for bed :)

    Same haha.

  • Registered Users Posts: 47 ✭✭✭ TheDazzler

    km79 wrote: »
    That's a lot of words
    I'll read it in the morning
    Time for bed :)

    You mightn't want to bother, it's not that interesting! :)

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,935 ✭✭✭ klopparama

    I agree with Carroll. If he was 5.5m I think some people would buy him and play him. I think the 4.5m is making people see him as a cheapie.

    I'll be playing him most weeks which allows me another 4.5 midfielder.

    I also think this could be a very big season for Iwobi. Wenger clearly rates him and he could keep his place through performances but with Arsenal having so many injury prone players he could see more pitch time for that reason alone.

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,825 ✭✭✭✭ siblers

    I think Iheanacho at 7.0m could be a steal, pity he didn't have much of a pre-season to gauge his performances but always looks like he was capable of scoring when he played for city

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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,436 ✭✭✭ Raoul

    TheDazzler wrote: »
    You mightn't want to bother, it's not that interesting! :)

    It was interesting. Fair play. Agree with absolutely everything you said.