How to stop the Celtic tiger coming back

I don't see the Celtic tiger coming back there is not the same access to credit which was the big fuel of the whole thing. On the other hand I was in an Avoca earlier on and it was jammed ques to get a table.

But for those who are exercised by the though of it coming back any suggestions of how to stop it? is it possible at all to have a Goldilocks type economy, along with full employment and reasonable house prices( whats reasonable ) without it all going mad.

andekwarhola

If you crack the secret of persuading an entire population - without recourse to a dictatorship - not to self-interestedly participate in property booms and vote for goverments on the basis of what they can put in their pocket, please share this knowledge with the rest of the developed countries in the world.

dashoonage

A lot to the Celtic Tiger era was keeping up with the joneses....i suggest we chase all the joneses out or Ireland.

amcalester

mariaalice wrote: »

I don't see the Celtic tiger coming back there is not the same access to credit which was the big fuel of the whole thing. On the other hand I was in an Avoca earlier on and it was jammed ques to get a table.

But for those who are exercised by the though of it coming back any suggestions of how to stop it? is it possible at all to have a Goldilocks type economy, along with full employment and reasonable house prices( whats reasonable ) without it all going mad.

As the economy heats up increase taxation, when it slows reduce taxation.

brevity

Encourage saving?
Discourage debt?

amcalester

amcalester wrote: »

As the economy heats up increase taxation, when it slows reduce taxation.

That not going to work there be murder how would you pay 450k for a house if you had to pay more tax silly answere :P

I am joking I know you are correct.

511

Stop flooding the country with immigrants and we won't have another property bubble. A 24% increase in our population between 1996 and 2011 is largely the reason why we had huge demand of housing/accommodation.

LeinsterDub

Is there anything to be said for an other Celtic Tiger? I felt the last one went very well.

brevity

brevity wrote: »

Encourage saving?
Discourage debt?

There is a lot of saving in this economy, a lot of paying down debt.

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/now-credit-unions-turn-away-savings-35524809.html

We are largely back in Celtic Tiger times again but it's not overheating as yet and may well not.

Car sales have declined in 2017 I believe and house prices are levelling off after a few years of sharp rises.

High rents are essentially keeping folks away from being able to buy as they can't save deposits and also many folks renting don't have as much disposable income as they would have had 10+ years ago.

We also have the USC which is significant.

Still though, unemployment isn't anywhere near as bad as it was, things have improved economically in recent years. Restaurants are doing well again and holidays are back in vogue. If the value of the $ drops I reckon the New York Christmas shopping spree might be back on for many.

Huge problems remain of course............ as they did in Celtic Tiger times too.

511

511 wrote: »

Stop flooding the country with immigrants and we won't have another property bubble. A 24% increase in our population between 1996 and 2011 is largely the reason why we had huge demand of housing/accommodation.

That's not solely down to immigrants.

Rawr

I'm not at all an expert, but I recon one solution would be to generally educate people to realize that things like:

Spending obscene amounts of money on a 2-3 bedroom cardboard box house in Longford (only 30 mins to Dublin City Center!) that in turn would require increased spending motor costs or mega commutes on regional transport links, just to maintain an urban living.

Are generally speaking a bad idea and should be avoided. Much like picking on a healing wound or voting for Fianna Fail.


I feel that a lot of the 'Celtic Tiger' was built on a very large house-of-cards that owed it's existence to confidence in the building market which in turn became confident because people were all too willing to spend well over the actual value of a house when buying. This overheated the market, created a false sense of wealth (which was entirely dependent on people continuously paying over the odds for new properties) which is where we end up with Celtic Tiger days...which continue until the prices become too high for anyone to afford, or unemployment destroys the prospective market for new homes.

If people can be educated to stop themselves from spending way over the odds for a house, then *maybe* there is a chance of stopping another Celtic Tiger.

TL:DR. Stop the Celtic Tiger by stopping people paying too much for crap houses in the middle of nowhere (or anywhere really). If the entire market stops paying over the odds for things like houses, the "value" of them will probably go down.

Rumpy Pumpy

Put Paul Murphy and his crew in charge.

Rents are higher now that 10 years ago but house prices still no where near peak boom prices.

There is a large element of "control" on the economy, it's quite likely accidental but the USC has taken hundreds/month out of average to well paid people's pockets.

The civil servents wage cuts and pension levees have also curbed spending.

Country is pottering along nicely from a big picture viewpoint.

Steve F

dashoonage wrote: »

A lot to the Celtic Tiger era was keeping up with the joneses....i suggest we chase all the joneses out or Ireland.

benjamin d

The lead up to and duration of the boom were characterised by every political party tripping over themselves to take the most from the collective pot to give to every individual. Income taxes slashed, children's allowance and old age pensions increased year on year far above inflation, everyone had tax breaks and allowances out their behinds. Now they're all untouchable "human rights". The left want to spend all the money and who gives a flip where it's coming from. The right are too spineless to face it down. The Irish electorate are stupid. Boom and bust. Fewer taxes, more allowances. Crap services. No money for long term investment because we piss our spare pennies away on allowances. A welfare state with a squeezed middle, no public services, and no true super rich elite. Nobody wins in the old sod.

**** Ireland. I get more disillusioned by the day.

TheDoc

Why would we not want another economic boom?

It's entirely plausible to maximise benefits from a boom and not have a crash immediately afterwards. What it requires though, this country and electorate has shown itself totally unable to do and even entertain.

Another boom happens and we will be there with out hands out asking whats for me, where is mine, where is my tax cut, where is this where is that. Instead of using the full employment and prosperity to widen the tax base, remove the excessive burden on carrying the income tax take from the wealthy and upper middle, invest in infrastructure like transport, education and health to get proper value from our prosperity, and people being more clever and less financially reckless.

As someone mentioned, a big part of the Celtic Tiger was people buying into the idea they were wealthier, when they just weren't and going way beyond their means with poor financial decision made on credit way beyond their means.

We should want an economic boom to happen again, we just want there to be actual coherant and strong characters leading it, that will be big enough to not cave into public demand for handouts so they can sweep the next election.

And for people saying there is already another Celtic Tiger, I don't think that is accurate at all. I'd imagine there is a lot less disposable cash knocking about the general population then there was during the boom. House prices soaring arn't an indication of a boom, thats an indication of issues with supply vs demand

benjamin d

benjamin d wrote: »

The lead up to and duration of the boom were characterised by every political party tripping over themselves to take the most from the collective pot to give to every individual. Income taxes slashed, children's allowance and old age pensions increased year on year far above inflation, everyone had tax breaks and allowances out their behinds. Now they're all untouchable "human rights". The left want to spend all the money and who gives a flip where it's coming from. The right are too spineless to face it down. The Irish electorate are stupid. Boom and bust. Fewer taxes, more allowances. Crap services. No money for long term investment because we piss our spare pennies away on allowances. A welfare state with a squeezed middle, no public services, and no true super rich elite. Nobody wins in the old sod.

**** Ireland. I get more disillusioned by the day.

Very moany post I am glad we don't live somewhere like America

benjamin d

benjamin d wrote: »

............ A welfare state with a squeezed middle, no public services, and no true super rich elite. Nobody wins in the old sod.

..............

If the continued pressure on "sorting" the housing issue results in something being done lots of folk will get a cheap or free house like in times past.

benjamin d

mariaalice wrote: »

Very moany post I am glad we don't live somewhere like America

Just because we're not the basket case the USA is becoming doesn't mean I can't moan. There are starving kids in Africa, doesn't mean I can't complain about my country because I've got a belly.
We had the chance to build a thriving, sustainable economy. We had the chance to make our public transport, health and education systems at least equal to other developed countries. Dublin could have had an underground, we could have taken our hospitals out of the stone age. We could have taken our schools back from the foreign state that runs most of them.
What did we do? Increase our non-means tested children's allowance waaaaayy over the odds during the good years, throw money at pensioners just because they vote, throw money at the social welfare money pit, appease parish pump gombeens with vanity projects, cut everyone's taxes and encourage us all to spend every penny. End up in a black hole of debt.

There might be a budget surplus this year? Gimme gimme gimme!
Rinse and repeat.

benjamin d

Augeo wrote: »

If the continued pressure on "sorting" the housing issue results in something being done lots of folk will get a cheap or free house like in times past.

And I hope you're right. We need a concerted effort to build social housing like in the past. That requires sacrifice from all citizens. That requires socialist thinking from everyone. The greater good. Increased taxes for all. Taxes for services.
Our brand of socialist left wants no responsibility for getting the money, they just want to harvest from the magic money tree of the imagined super rich.

benjamin d

benjamin d wrote: »

Just because we're not the basket case the USA is becoming doesn't mean I can't moan. There are starving kids in Africa, doesn't mean I can't complain about my country because I've got a belly.
We had the chance to build a thriving, sustainable economy. We had the chance to make our public transport, health and education systems at least equal to other developed countries. Dublin could have had an underground, we could have taken our hospitals out of the stone age. We could have taken our schools back from the foreign state that runs most of them.
What did we do? Increase our non-means tested children's allowance waaaaayy over the odds during the good years, throw money at pensioners just because they vote, throw money at the social welfare money pit, appease parish pump gombeens with vanity projects, cut everyone's taxes and encourage us all to spend every penny. End up in a black hole of debt.

There might be a budget surplus this year? Gimme gimme gimme!
Rinse and repeat.

That is what happened everyone knows about the mistakes of the Celtic tiger I have a strong dislike of the rubbishing of public services that goes on, they are not bad at all ( could be run better but even that is improving ) eaten bread is soon forgotten, by passes new motorways etc.

benjamin d

benjamin d wrote: »

And I hope you're right. We need a concerted effort to build social housing like in the past. That requires sacrifice from all citizens. That requires socialist thinking from everyone. The greater good. Increased taxes for all. Taxes for services.
Our brand of socialist left wants no responsibility for getting the money, they just want to harvest from the magic money tree of the imagined super rich.

Ironcially most of the water charge protestors wouldn't agree.

railer201

dashoonage wrote: »

A lot to the Celtic Tiger era was keeping up with the joneses....i suggest we chase all the joneses out or Ireland.

We'll drag the Joneses down to our level this time round.

benjamin d

Augeo wrote: »

Ironcially most of the water charge protestors wouldn't agree.

That's exactly my point. Gimme all the stuff but I'm not paying for anything.

benjamin d

benjamin d wrote: »

That's exactly my point. Gimme all the stuff but I'm not paying for anything.

Yeah........... I'd be in favour of not removing too much if any of the current income tax tbh....... and I pay a fair wack of it.

Ipso

mariaalice wrote: »

That's not solely down to immigrants.

Come on, you hardly expect personal responsibility.

Ipso

Augeo wrote: »

Ironcially most of the water charge protestors wouldn't agree.

In fairness 200 euro a year is more important than rocketing house prices which don't effect anyone.

lawred2

mariaalice wrote: »

I don't see the Celtic tiger coming back there is not the same access to credit which was the big fuel of the whole thing. On the other hand I was in an Avoca earlier on and it was jammed ques to get a table.

But for those who are exercised by the though of it coming back any suggestions of how to stop it? is it possible at all to have a Goldilocks type economy, along with full employment and reasonable house prices( whats reasonable ) without it all going mad.

Oh the humanity... :rolleyes:

Can we knock the navel gazing on the head please?

We are pretty much only exiting what was a lost decade of economic activity - we need our economy to grow to support our standard of living. It's like lamenting developers yet not realising that nothing gets done without someone taking the bloody risk..

Sitting at home doing nothing but moaning doesn't do jack for anybody.

It is actually possible to have a growing economy which builds wealth and well-being without it being just another Celtic Tiger..

lawred2

lawred2 wrote: »

Oh the humanity... :rolleyes:

Can we knock the navel gazing on the head please?

We are pretty much only exiting what was a lost decade of economic activity - we need our economy to grow to support our standard of living. It's like lamenting developers yet not realising that nothing gets done without someone taking the bloody risk..

Sitting at home doing nothing but moaning doesn't do jack for anybody.

It is actually possible to have a growing economy which builds wealth and well-being without it being just another Celtic Tiger..

But how do you have: a growing economy which builds wealth and well-being without it being just another Celtic Tiger..Do you want to explain? I actuley think we are grand more or less ( there are a few exceptions ).

lawred2

mariaalice wrote: »

But how do you have: a growing economy which builds wealth and well-being without it being just another Celtic Tiger..Do you want to explain? I actuley think we are grand more or less ( there are a few exceptions ).

Is that a serious question?

You think every growing economy is based on credit fuelled property speculation?

AllGunsBlazing

brevity wrote: »

Encourage saving?
Discourage debt?

Too late.

And still a ticking time bomb waiting to go off imo.

lawred2

lawred2 wrote: »

Is that a serious question?

You think every growing economy is based on credit fuelled property speculation?

What I asked is how to get it just right neither too expansionary nor too deflationary while simultaneous keeping most people happy, increasing housing supply while not pursing up the price of development land, house prices that are affordable ( how is that defined ) along with excellent public services, a taxation system everyone is happy with as well.

topper75

amcalester wrote: »

As the economy heats up increase taxation, when it slows reduce taxation.

Simple.

Then democratic politics enters the equation - democratic politics where an electorate was looking out the window towards a crow pecking at the grass when the teacher was talking about such things as debt traps, basic civics, scarcity of resource, sustainability, and fiscal rectitude.

Party in power tries to raise taxes when the needle rises. Party in opposition jumps up and down and screams that they'll give people more in their pocket if only you vote them in. And off we go. Party in power has no choice but to make cushty even cushtier. It overheats. And then it blows. And there is a whole pile of crying and I-told-you-so.

Boom, bust, boom, bust, boom, bust etc.

ToddyDoody

4 things on the economy.

1. Still running a budget deficit.
2. Second highest debt per capita in the world.
3. AIB right at the bottom of the European Bank stress tests
4. Apple taxation court case on the way.