King George VI Stakes Ascot 2017

tryfix

I love this race and I love it even more when there's a quality field lining up for it, which is a rare enough thing in the modern era.

Oddschecker best prices

Enable 2/1

Highland Reel 5/2

Jack Hobbs 6/1

Idaho 13/2

Ulysses 8/1

Frontiersman 14/1

Hawkbill 20/1

Permian 20/1

Benbatl 20/1

Desert Encounter 25/1

Johannes Vermeer 40/1

Algometer 50/1

My Dream Boat 50/1

US Army Ranger 50/1

Sixties Song 66/1

Maverick Wave 100/1


It's a bit early to in the week weather wise to nail any colours to the mast but some of the bigger prices will vanish rapidly as ground conditions and running intentions become obvious.

Itziger

Check out them 3yo colts!!

Is it a bit quick for Enable after the Irish Oaks? With the weight allowances you'd have to fancy her though.

tryfix

Itziger wrote: »

Check out them 3yo colts!!

Is it a bit quick for Enable after the Irish Oaks? With the weight allowances you'd have to fancy her though.

Permian is a hardy buck but he's a long long way behind the standard of the market leaders.

As for Enable it is a bit soon, but she thrashed her field with ease so she didn't have a hard race. That pound for pound form with the added sex allowance of 3lbs puts her level or slightly above Highland Reel and she was far from flat out in the Irish Oaks. Logic says she'll win against a moderate bunch of GP1 horses. Highland Reel is the best of them but he's only reached an OR of 123 horse in his fourth season where he's raced at the top level throughout.

To put that in perspective Sir Nicholas Abbey wasn't good enough to win a King George and he was an OR 125 horse.

Fillies have a good record in the King George and her price is an indication that she's one of the better ones to tackle the race.

Record of fillies and mares in the King George since 2000

2000 Shiva (5yo) 7th, 14-1
2002 Aquarelliste (4yo) 4th, 8-1
2004 Vallee Enchantee (4yo) 5th, 6-1
2005 Eswarah (3yo) 8th, 9-1
2009 Look Here (4yo) 6th, 7-1
2010 Daryakana (4yo) 4th, 14-1
2012 Danedream (4yo) 1st, 9-1
2014 Taghrooda (3yo) 1st, 7-2
2015 Madame Chiang (4yo) 4th, 8-1

On the other hand, she's never been in a head to head battle, never mind being in one with an Iron Horse like Highland Reel who just gets better when he's battling at the end of a really hard race.

She's never raced on Soft ground, so there's that to figure. Also there's little point in considering Highland Reel on Soft ground, he's a shadow of himself on it which also puts a better perspective on Jack Hobbs Meydan win.

I haven't got my head around this race yet, need to know what the going will be like before firming up my thoughts.

Haven't ruled out Ulysses and Idaho yet. The assumption that Ulysses would be out stayed in the race is flawed IMO and Idaho might be a much better beast this year than last, he's a bit of a potential assassin who could sit handy behind a ferocious pace and outstay them all.

EICVD

Enable for me if she does run. Hope she doesn't though, love to see 'the reeler' fight off his little brother to add another G1 to his record.

diomed

It is not a race I bet on often. It if often won by a short price favourite.

In 1992 I was in Clerys, O'Connell Street buying a hard shell suitcase for about £90. I went into Ladbrokes, put £100 on St Jovite at 9/10. He won by 6 lengths. I went back to Clerys, bought the case, and still had my £100.

Enable looks the bet if the ground dries by Saturday.
It is hard to know how she will react to a challenge (if there is a challenge).

longshotvalue

diomed wrote: »

It is not a race I bet on often. It if often won by a short price favourite.

In 1992 I was in Clerys, O'Connell Street buying a hard shell suitcase for about £90. I went into Ladbrokes, put £100 on St Jovite at 9/10. He won by 6 lengths. I went back to Clerys, bought the case, and still had my £100.

Enable looks the bet if the ground dries by Saturday.
It is hard to know how she will react to a challenge (if there is a challenge).

£100 bet in 1992 :-0... That was real money back then. Although Hard Shell suitcases are still around that price.

diomed

aidankkk wrote: »

£100 bet in 1992 :-0... That was real money back then. Although Hard Shell suitcases are still around that price.

I recently calculated that hard disk storage back then costing €360k would cost €0.60 now, and the present stuff is infinitely quicker and more reliable.

Slattsy

Is the ground going to be soft? HR doesn't want soft ground, JH does.
Enable could be the one if she can handle the ground but no bet at the price. JH if ground is soft.

diomed

Yesterday it was soft (on Turftrax)
Today it is
straight course: good to soft
round course: soft; good to soft in places

Tuesday is expected to be largely dry,
showers due Wednesday.
Mainly dry with possible occasional showers forecast for the rest of the week.

tryfix

Enable (11/8)in
Highland Reel (9/2)out
Jack Hobbs (5)in
Idaho (9)out
Ulysses (10)out
Hawkbill (16)in
Benbatl (20)
Frontiersman (20)out
Permian (20)
Desert Encounter (22)out
Johannes Vermeer (40)
My Dream Boat (40)in
Algometer (50)
Us Army Ranger (50)
Sixties Song (66)
Maverick Wave (150)

The market is all about Soft going at the moment, with Enable confirmed to run, Highland Reel drifting like a barge and surprisingly for Enable's chances there's a lot of support for her stablemate Jack Hobbs who's into 4/1 with Paddy Power.

Will Highland Reel even waste his time by turning up if the ground is against him?

I don't care how much people rate Jack Hobbs on Soft ground, he's been a disaster for backers so often that he's a terrible price for the race unless the stable is thinking of pulling Enable or are doubting her a lot.

tryfix

At this rate of drifting for Highland Reel it is time to back Idaho, he's handled good to soft in 2 Derbies and has been improving again this year. His Hardwicke win has been devalued a bit by Barsanti's subsequent run but Sheamie said he'd a lot more in the tank that day and the Hardwicke is a decent trial for the King George.

His price will contract if Highland Reel is pulled and Ryan Moore ends up riding him. I'd prefer Sheamie on him but Ryan's style might suit him.

Will also be backing Ulysses if he's definitely going to run, he's a proven stayer who ran his first three races on Good to Soft, his recent 10f form just proves that he's a very good horse.

diomed

Desert Encounter
Highland Reel
Idaho
Jack Hobbs
Maverick Wave
My Dream Boat
Sixties Song
Ullysses
Benbatl
Enable

WickIow Brave

diomed wrote: »

Desert Encounter
Highland Reel
Idaho
Jack Hobbs
Maverick Wave
My Dream Boat
Sixties Song
Ullysses
Benbatl
Enable

I'll be taking on the filly anyway for all she could hack up and make me look like a fool. See what the ground's like. I'm praying the rain stays away.

mailburner

can't see past enable, the fact they are leaving her in is good enough for me

Mgoraf

Ground looks like it might have gone against highland reel. I be shocked if anything else can give enable a stone and a beating if she runs to form

Moscow is magnificent

Anyone think Ulysses is a great each way bet at 11s with 3 places paid??To my eye the step up in trip should suit and although the soft ground is a bit of a worry it did win a maiden on good to soft. With question marks about the top 3 in the market and it very rarely runs a bad race, I think it's a great each way bet with money back as a free bet with multiple firms if 2nd to fav I'm going to have a strong each way bet.

diomed

OK, I'll admit it. I've had a bet on Sixties Song at 126.
I think the form is about 15 lengths behind what is needed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpbuVo4553c

diomed

I should point out that a previous winner of the race won by Sixties Song, the Argentinian Group 1 Gran Premio Carlos Pellegrini, was Freddy who won in 2002.
In England Freddy finished 9, 11, 10, 14, 8, 9, 8, 4, 14.

BumperD

diomed wrote: »

OK, I'll admit it. I've had a bet on Sixties Song at 126.
I think the form is about 15 lengths behind what is needed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpbuVo4553c

You do like the longshots

WickIow Brave

I'm going with Highland Reel here e/w (6/1). I really don't think the ground is going to inconvenience him that much. It's good to soft and it's priced as if it's hock deep. I think (hope) he'll cope. He was 2nd in the Hardwicke last year on GS and he should have won that race and it was only his first run of the season (in Europe). Enable is an unknown so I have to take her on and I'm not convinced on Jack Hobbs.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

I should point out that a previous winner of the race won by Sixties Song, the Argentinian Group 1 Gran Premio Carlos Pellegrini, was Freddy who won in 2002.
In England Freddy finished 9, 11, 10, 14, 8, 9, 8, 4, 14.

He's a young OR 119 rated horse, so theoretically he's got a fair chance.

The Soft ground has thrown a spanner in the works here, the favourite is about the only one who hasn't got a big question mark around them.

diomed

Good to see a decent field, both numbers and quality.

diomed

Price drop on Sixties Song from 150 to 65 55.

diomed

I don't like the very short price for Enable.
There are good horses in this race.

Johner

What a filly.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

can't see past enable, the fact they are leaving her in is good enough for me

Easy money what a horse

diomed

She is one of the greats.

WickIow Brave

Brilliant filly. She's the real deal all right.

tryfix

Highland Reel was carefully ridden and did well to stay on for 4th in those conditions which pushed his career earning past £6 million with the £61,000 for 4th place.

They're after the record career earnings or a European horse with him. A place in something like the Juddmonte International might just do it for him.

Slattsy

Ground was wrong for all the dangers to Enable in the race. Pity it wasnt better ground.

tryfix

Slattsy wrote: »

Ground was wrong for all the dangers to Enable in the race. Pity it wasnt better ground.

The rain itself took hugely away from the spectacle of her winning the race, it just looked like a cold and miserable slog through rain and the mud.

Mgoraf

Hopefully we get a good ground arc. Would be some race if almanzor can get back for it as well

Lt Dan

Mgoraf wrote: »

Hopefully we get a good ground arc. Would be some race if almanzor can get back for it as well

Consider what that horse has gone through and missed so much of the season , it would be a miracle for him to be in the top 5 of the Arc, should he run, it would be some training feat. You reckon he would stay the 12 f?

Mgoraf

Yeah I agree I think theres no chance he'll run at this stage unfortunately. Based on his breeding he won't stay. He has a full brother that has never run past 10f either.

On a side note will they retire Jack Hobbs now. Couldn't even best his pacemaker home on his perfect conditions.

Lt Dan

Mgoraf wrote: »

Yeah I agree I think theres no chance he'll run at this stage unfortunately. Based on his breeding he won't stay. He has a full brother that has never run past 10f either.

On a side note will they retire Jack Hobbs now. Couldn't even best his pacemaker home on his perfect conditions.

Well , Irish Derby and Dubai (big deal for Godolpin) ain't bad,at least they recouped the purchase price. Can't really slag him off as he is probably lucky to still be alive after the Jockey Club race last May.

I wonder was Gosden's lack of trust in JH a reason for throwing Enable in?