Is Michael O'Leary talking trash about Open Skies?

Snickers Man

The rumbunctious Ryanair boss has been making noises about chaos in air travel between the UK and the EU in the wake of Brexit.

He claims that if Britain leaves the Open Skies agreement, which he suggests is an inevitable consequence of Brexit, and fails to put an alternative agreement in place then Ryanair will have to stop selling flights between the UK and EU at least for a time.

He also suggests that in the absence of an agreement, there may be no flights possible between the EU and UK. A typical O'Leary quip that "British people may have to go on holiday in Scotland rather than Spain" should chill sunseekers to the bone, in the literal and figurative senses.

Just have a listen to the Great Billy Connolly talking about holidays in Aberdeen ("Aberdeen is Gaelic for hypothermia!") to get a feel, or at least a shiver, for that prospect.

But is this just typical O'Leary showboating in the press? He is notorious for this sort of scaremongering. But is there any truth to what he says? That a new Open Skies, or equivalent, agreement will be needed between EU and UK? That the UK might have to agree to European Court of Justice rulings on any arbitration that might ensue, and might also have to agree to some freedom of movement both of which are issues on which even the softest Brexiteers are adamant Britain should no longer be subject?

It couldn't be good for Ireland if the busiest internal air route in Europe (London Dublin) were suddenly to be closed down, albeit temporarily, because of a treaty wrangle.

Any knowledgeable person care to debunk Mr O'Leary's dire warnings?

Ludo

Snickers Man wrote: »

It couldn't be good for Ireland if the busiest internal air route in Europe (London Dublin) were suddenly to be closed down, albeit temporarily, because of a treaty wrangle.

Tenth busiest?

BlinkingLights

I think they usually quote a figure that is Dublin to All London Airports, not just LHR or Stansted.

It also assumes they won't have to apply for a Scottish visa

BonkeyDonker

The problem is nobody knows what will happen. MOL is probably playing worst case scenario, but there is the possibility it will happen. But like everything else Brexit related it seems nobody knows and the UK governments seeming lack of preparedness will not aide this.

martinsvi

This is BS. By leaving the agreement (not sure if it will happen anyway) you still have rights set out by ICAO allowing G reg planes to fly to EU, as well as EU reg planes to fly to UK. The only thing that changes is that Ryanair as any other non UK airline wont be able to base their aircraft there and operate to destinations other than their home country. Equally UK airlines wont be allowed to be based and operate between EU states.

However Easyjet is already looking for a EU Air Operator's Certificate and I'm sure Ryanair are looking for the same in UK to circumvent the issue before it even becomes an issue

Jamie2k9

While nobody knows what will happen he is really been over dramatic about it but that's only to get attention around the issue and for it to be sorted as soon as possible.

The rubbish we will move all our aircraft out of the UK is just not going to happen.

737max

maybe he is just trying to talk down his shares in advance of the financial results next week so that he can complete the share buyback that he committed to earlier in the financial year before results are published.
If he is, it isn't working as the shares are not dropping.
Or is he just trying to impress on the headless chicken government over there that if they don't get their house in order that access to the UK will mostly shut down over night.

He'll put on the poor mouth when it suits him to do so.

BlinkingLights

It will be more interesting for the large Spanish airline, IAG SA, that's based in London and operating as the regional brand known locally as BA.

Jamie2k9

BlinkingLights wrote: »

It will be more interesting for the large Spanish airline, IAG SA, that's based in London and operating as the regional brand known locally as BA.

BA have UK AOC so not a problem, just like EI (Irish AOC) and IB/VY (Spanish AOC).

duskyjoe

737 max has it in one I believe. Don't be surprised with yet another rout of super normal bumper profits. Ryanair are flying in more ways than one

goingnowhere

EI has a UK AOC in addition to its IE one as result of the Belfast base (something to do with being able to fly UK to outside the EU) and historically EI had traffic rights for numerous IE - UK routes.

FR somewhat behind the curve here, should have been chasing a UK AOC as soon as Brexit voted happened.

BA could be in a serious pickle as its almost it's entire short haul operation could be in trouble

L1011

goingnowhere wrote: »

EI has a UK AOC in addition to its IE one as result of the Belfast base (something to do with being able to fly UK to outside the EU) and historically EI had traffic rights for numerous IE - UK routes.

Once upon a time they had traffic rights for many MAN->Euro routes too.

roundymac

Free advertising for him.

Tenger

BlinkingLights wrote: »

It will be more interesting for the large Spanish airline, IAG SA, that's based in London and operating as the regional brand known locally as BA.

IAG is a actually a Spanish based holding company company that owns several airlines, 2 of which are Spanish, 1 is UK based and 1 is Irish. They are currently launching a 5th standalone airline called "Level" to be Spanish based I believe.

Victor

AOCs might mean nothing. It may be down to shareholding.

Ryanair has several companies, both British and Irish. I understand the Irish one is the holding company, and the UK one is the operating company.

If an airline is less than 50% EU owned, there are barriers to it operating on EU to EU flights. If non-EU shareholders buy more than 50% of Ryanair, their shares get converted, I think to non-voting stock.

Conversely, in a Brexit situation, if an airline is more than 50% EU owned, there could be barriers to it operating on UK to UK and non-UK to UK flights.

Whither a split into two separate companies. EU competition law wouldn't allow them cooperate as they have too much power.

martinsvi

Victor wrote: »

AOCs might mean nothing. It may be down to shareholding.

Ryanair has several companies, both British and Irish. I understand the Irish one is the holding company, and the UK one is the operating company.

If an airline is less than 50% EU owned, there are barriers to it operating on EU to EU flights. If non-EU shareholders buy more than 50% of Ryanair, their shares get converted, I think to non-voting stock.

Conversely, in a Brexit situation, if an airline is more than 50% EU owned, there could be barriers to it operating on UK to UK and non-UK to UK flights.

Whither a split into two separate companies. EU competition law wouldn't allow them cooperate as they have too much power.

I've read similar in the press however none of the articles cite the exact regulation that enforces this. If you think about it, Norwegian is not owned by EU shareholders yet they operate away with no problem, therefore I think that either the above is not true or there are ways around it.

Victor

martinsvi wrote: »

I've read similar in the press however none of the articles cite the exact regulation that enforces this. If you think about it, Norwegian is not owned by EU shareholders yet they operate away with no problem, therefore I think that either the above is not true or there are ways around it.

Norway is part of the EEA, which is adequate for the purposes of this discussion.

martinsvi

Victor wrote: »

Norway is part of the EEA, which is adequate for the purposes of this discussion.

what's EEA has to do with it now, if the press is talking about EU shareholders in particular? Shouldn't your quote then read -

If an airline is less than 50% EU EAA owned, there are barriers to it operating on EU EAA to EU EAA flights. ??

Don't take this personally, I'm not having a go at you Victor, I would just like to have a look at the regulation that specifies this, as to be honest, it sounds a lot like EU officials tossing around all sorts of threats just to make the whole ordeal as unpleasant and painful as possible.. None of this will happen, loopholes will be found as always..