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Accumulator Bet advice - should I cash out?

  • 30-04-2017 10:09pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,454 ✭✭✭ TripleAce


    Hi,

    I placed the following bet back in summer, a 865-1 shot (10€ to win 8,655€) and now PaddyPower is offering me 954€ to cash out. Should I take it?

    My concerns:
    1) Last game of the season in the English Championship: Newcastle needs to win at home against Barnsley and hope for Brighton not to win away at Aston Villa.

    2) Cash out amount is likely to change after Wednesday's Juve game in Champions League, and hopefully increasing by a good bit if the result in Monaco is positive.

    3) Real Madrid is even points with Barca in La Liga but with one game in hand. In case of even points I believe Barca would win, and Real has also the Champions League to play, which may bring some distraction.

    What would you do? If I keep the bet open, what is the best way to cover myself? I was thinking to put a 500€ bet on Brighton to win the Championship + Real (or Atletico, depending on Tuesday result) to win the Champions League.

    I am not a betting expert, so any advice would be very welcomed :)

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭ NapoleonInRags


    Wait until after Weds - cash out is unlikely to go down and you'll have a better fix on Juve's chances of making the CL final. Personally I would cash as I think the Newcastle leg of the accy is also dodge. 950 for a tenner bet? Nice.....


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,069 ✭✭✭ markc91


    Id partially cash out for a fiver getting you back 475 and leave the other 5er running for a chance at 4k


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Ezekiel Magnificent Gang


    Yes, as above 50%CO.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,454 ✭✭✭ TripleAce


    thanks! But is what they offer fair? They offer 955€ against a potential 8,655€ win. I would think odds for this bet to win are better than 8-1?

    Currently these are the odds offered:

    Newcastle: Evens
    Chelsea: 1/20
    Real: 4/9
    Juve (Seria A): 1/40
    Juve (CL): 13/8

    I found this website online https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/accumulator.html and according to the calculation what they offer me to cash out would be fair if the potential win of the open bet would be 7,800€ . Not sure I calculated it correctly though!


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,208 ✭✭✭ shamrock55


    I dont think juve will win cl tbh


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,967 ✭✭✭ jacool


    7800 or 0, that's the difference
    You are getting a guaranteed return if you cash in.
    Why not cash in and re-invest part of the winnings @ 7800/1 ?

    and I agree with shamrock55 too


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,454 ✭✭✭ TripleAce


    They are offering me 1,260€ at the moment, just waiting for La Liga results tomorrow and unless some big surprise happen I will keep this bet open and place a 750€ bet on Brighton to win the Championship + Real to win the Champions League, it works out 3-1 and should cover me pretty well. Hopefully Newcastle can win the Championship over the weekend though and in that case I would hope to be offered cash out of about 2.5 k in which case I may consider.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,454 ✭✭✭ TripleAce


    Aston Villa you beauty!!!

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,418 ✭✭✭ Wheety


    Fair play. What you going to do now? I'd cash out but as the leagues start settling the cash out will go up. The only dodgy one would be Real Madrid for the league.

    But €2749.23 is great for a tenner :-)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,454 ✭✭✭ TripleAce


    Wheety wrote: »
    Fair play. What you going to do now? I'd cash out but as the leagues start settling the cash out will go up. The only dodgy one would be Real Madrid for the league.

    But €2749.23 is great for a tenner :-)

    I think I will leave this bet open and cover myself by placing a big bet on Real Madrid for the CL final and also a smaller combo bet Barcelona to win the Liga + Real to win the CL, just in case Real decides to go stupid and throw away the Liga again. I need to work out the exact amounts in these days though, will place it before next Liga game :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,418 ✭✭✭ Wheety


    Yeah, I meant the only dodgy league one was Real. Although they're still favourites with their game in hand.

    Juventus for CL is risky but there's a good chance your whole bet is spot on too. I'm rubbish at this type of thing but might have a go next season :-)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,418 ✭✭✭ Wheety


    Juventus could win the CL alright. They look very solid. You still letting this ride at the moment? Have you covered any other bets yet?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,454 ✭✭✭ TripleAce


    Nice Real win against Seville today, cash out is now finally over 3k. Not ready to cash out yet though, PaddyPower is making it very easy for me to place cover bets by allowing to bet on combos that I struggle to understand how is even possible, good for me I guess. I bet today 50€ to win 3k basically is Real loses against Celta Vigo on Wednesday, no point for me to cash out yet as I have nothing to worry in the Liga if I can do this.

    Juve lost today but is not gonna be an issue, should close out the Seria A next Sunday at home against Crotone (I will be travelling to Turin to watch it, so as a Juve fan I am really excited about it!) :)

    25q9lzs.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,208 ✭✭✭ shamrock55


    TripleAce wrote: »
    Nice Real win against Seville today, cash out is now finally over 3k. Not ready to cash out yet though, PaddyPower is making it very easy for me to place cover bets by allowing to bet on combos that I struggle to understand how is even possible, good for me I guess. I bet today 50€ to win 3k basically is Real loses against Celta Vigo on Wednesday, no point for me to cash out yet as I have nothing to worry in the Liga if I can do this.

    Juve lost today but is not gonna be an issue, should close out the Seria A next Sunday at home against Crotone (I will be travelling to Turin to watch it, so as a Juve fan I am really excited about it!) :)

    25q9lzs.jpg

    What if celta and real draw


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,454 ✭✭✭ TripleAce


    shamrock55 wrote: »
    What if celta and real draw

    that's fine, draw is pretty much like a win for Real. They are even points with Barca and with 1 game in hand (if they finish even points Barca would win).


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,418 ✭✭✭ Wheety


    So Juve and Real have won their leagues. Has cash out gone up much? Only CL final left :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,454 ✭✭✭ TripleAce


    Wheety wrote: »
    So Juve and Real have won their leagues. Has cash out gone up much? Only CL final left :D

    I was in Turin yesterday to watch the game (Juve-Crotone) and just before Juve win they were offering me around 3,830€ to cash out. I didn't bother as the match was about to start.
    After the game was over however no cash out was available for a couple of hours and I was a bit worried as I couldn't cover my bet properly in the Malaga-Real game as PaddyPower didn't offer me the same combo as in the past couple of weeks.
    On my way back however I stopped at a service station and just 20 minutes before the Malaga-Real game started cash out was available again, but for just 3,710€ which doesn't much sense as Juve just won the league and this should have been a bit higher than earlier in the day, and instead it was lower.
    I didn't feel like taking such a big risk on a single game though, as a Real win would have probably only added a couple of hundred euro to the cash out at most, so I chickened out and just took the 3.7k closing the bet. Can't complain I guess :D
    Real ended up winning anyway by the way.


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