The eternal question: Does suckler farming have a future?

Feckoffcup

With the beef prices in the factories taking hits, rising cost of fertiliser, land prices increasing, brexit etc etc , is there a future for the full time and part time suckler farmers? Does anyone break down the costs of keeping a cow or even profit margins for the cow? Is it sustainable for your business?

tanko

It all depends what you mean by "a future"?

What do you think?

Feckoffcup

Yes, full time guys will have to increase numbers to around 100 at minimum. Part timers will always exist , low investment low risk , trundling along as usual. Both guys will feel a proper squeeze, however in 20 years time china could have developed a real taste for beef. This would be huge for us. I can see niche markets becoming more popular eg. Galloway herds that could demand a premium price to restaurants.

Bass Reeves

It all depends on what survive means. Will suckler cows be here in 10 years time yes they will. But profitability will be hard. With more dairy cows in the pipeline and as the dairy numbers mature then beef farmers will change over to more beef bulls for a higher percentage of calves.

Already as lads use the Irish EBI more to bred dairy replacements the quality of the Friesian bullock is starting to improve. dairy farmers are breeding there replacements to yield off grass with EBI this in turn IMO is switching theFR/HO bullock from the more extreme HO to an animal that is more efficent off grass than 3-5 years ago. While not as good as a beef cross bullock they are still better than the HO bullock of 3-5 years ago and a lot of the AAX bullocks off easy calving AA bulls. But there will be very few FR bullocks viv a v dairy/beef crosses in 3-5 years time as dairy cows number maximise. Cullcow numbers will be more plentiful.

This is what the suckler cow must compete with. Yes Larry will tell you he wants suckler beef but when slaughter numbers go above 30K/week price drops below a 4 euro/base. It is questionable if a suckler cow can survive in a sub 4euro/kg beef price except in the niche export market. We saw the figures from the FJ farm and while this was a high cost system it points that to achieve a wage of 50K/year a low debt farm of 150+ acres would be required in a suckler cow enterprise.

patsy_mccabe

Only today, I was looking at Friesian bullocks in a neighbours place. Saw black bucket reared limousins too in another farm last week. Nothing wrong with them. While they don't look great the first year, they thrive away in the second.
You have to wonder though, why are the powers that be, so determined to keep the national suckler herd going if it is so inefficient? Is it a case of the better grading carcass subsidizing the dairy beef calves?

Dozer1

yes there will always be sucklers, finishing cattle won't suit everyone, lads that have an interest in breeding will always stay at it. Whatever beef enterprise you are in any profit will be decided mainly by how low you can keep inputs like vets fees fert, land improvements etc
for example last year I'd the vet out for 2 c-sections and a heifer calving, this year didn't need the vet, in a small number system like mine that's a massive boost.
I saw a friends setup with 2 lely calf feeders, looks like a system that would make calf rearing much easier if I was to leave the sucklers though.

weed_killer

while fertiliser is increasing in price , land prices are falling and will fall further

Grueller

weed_killer wrote: »

while fertiliser is increasing in price , land prices are falling and will fall further

Where is it falling? Genuine question because around here it is only getting dearer.

charolais0153

Grueller wrote: »

Where is it falling? Genuine question because around here it is only getting dearer.

Everywhere except Wexford and golden vale;)

weed_killer

ah grueller , its more or less in the official publications that its falling , any amount of land where no dairy men are contenders can be bought for 6 k an acre right now and plenty is being bought for less

Who2

The same could be asked of any section within farming and unless theres a few psychic's on here then all anyone can do is surmise. ive been listening to people spout the same old muck for years that in another couple of years with the price of raw materials and the cost of keeping a cow and the extra friesains and all the same muck. All i can say is im still here and theres plenty more in the same boat. i Know my farm is finally sustainable (with sucklers) and there will be always buyers for good stock. if it does go tits up il just have to re-evaluate and look at some other enterprise. They suit the way i work and i enjoy farming them, i made more than the average industrial wage on a part time basis and i cant see anything wrong with that.

weed_killer

any kind of sign that subsidies will be reduced will show us who is swimming naked when the tide goes out

subsidies are going to be less going forward by virtue of brexit alone , this will have the biggest knock on effect on land prices in non dairying regions , land west of the shannon will be three grand an acre within ten years

Grueller

charolais0153 wrote: »

Everywhere except Wexford and golden vale;)

Unlucky for me that I am slap bang in the middle of Wexford so with no intention of moving elsewhere.

charolais0153

Grueller wrote: »

Unlucky for me that I am slap bang in the middle of Wexford so with no intention of moving elsewhere.

Would ya prefer to be in Donegal with the possibility of buying land tho?

Who2

weed_killer wrote: »

ah grueller , its more or less in the official publications that its falling , any amount of land where no dairy men are contenders can be bought for 6 k an acre right now and plenty is being bought for less

i havent seen land at 6k an acre for years. 8k is the least ive seen for an old worn out farm thats been neglected for as long as i can remember. and im a good few hours from the golden vale. 10k minimum as far as 24k on agri ground around here.

weed_killer

who2 , well you are just not up to date as regards the on the ground situation im afraid

very little land is making 10 k an acre , entire residential dairy farms are failing to make it

Who2

weed_killer wrote: »

who2 , well you are just not up to date as regards the on the ground situation im afraid

very little land is making 10 k an acre , entire residential dairy farms are failing to make it

How up to date do you need one bit was sold two weeks ago.

tractorporn

weed_killer wrote:

who2 , well you are just not up to date as regards the on the ground situation im afraid

weed_killer wrote:

very little land is making 10 k an acre , entire residential dairy farms are failing to make it

I'm afraid it's you that's out of touch. I pulled out of a piece of land mearning me last week at 9200 and there's still two lads bidding on it. It's good land but we're a long way from the golden Vale

weed_killer

believe what you want , land is falling in most places , always exception to the rule

Biscuitus

Everything is up in the air now with Brexit. If subsidies take a big hit and we lose a chunk of the British market then Suckling and farming in general in Ireland is going to be in a very bad spot.

Still waiting on these massive Chinese markets they keep hinting at every year to open up.

Username John

weed_killer wrote: »

believe what you want , land is falling in most places , always exception to the rule

I am based in a dairy / tillage area, so land around us would be dear enough...

But how do you know land is falling in most places?
There is the property register for houses, which tells you the actual prices paid.

Without this for land, how can you say land price is falling in most areas?

Bass Reeves

weed_killer wrote: »

any kind of sign that subsidies will be reduced will show us who is swimming naked when the tide goes out

subsidies are going to be less going forward by virtue of brexit alone , this will have the biggest knock on effect on land prices in non dairying regions , land west of the shannon will be three grand an acre within ten years

If it wll be it will all be growing timber. Forrestry is making 4-5K/acre. But enough of that I taught this was a suckler cow thread.

larthehar

http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/land-review-reveals-that-51000ac-acres-sold-for-a-total-of-e300-million-in-2015/

A good review to settle on..

freedominacup

Bass Reeves wrote: »

If it wll be it will all be growing timber. Forrestry is making 4-5K/acre. But enough of that I taught this was a suckler cow thread.

I don't follow your logic. Land at 3k/acre changes some amount of equations. The forrsesters will have to keep it a 5k in order to keep farmers out of the bidding. Though if land drops to that price the supply of land available to buy would obviously not be the same factor it is today.

Feckoffcup

Are sucklers margins worse down south?

einn32

Unless there is some major event which makes food scarce for those who can afford it then suckling will be only part time at small numbers. Maybe if you were to process and market the beef yourself there could be a return or at huge scales there would be a return.

Username John

Feckoffcup wrote: »

Are sucklers margins worse down south?

Why would you say that? Not having a go, just wondering...

I was up the country at the weekend, and I saw a lad feeding a bale to cattle in a shed...

1st May, feeding silage - you can't be making a profit at that surely?

Feckoffcup

Username John wrote: »

Feckoffcup wrote: »

Are sucklers margins worse down south?

Why would you say that? Not having a go, just wondering...

I was up the country at the weekend, and I saw a lad feeding a bale to cattle in a shed...

1st May, feeding silage - you can't be making a profit at that surely?

The past few years you guys have been getting poorer factory prices in general. LMC bulletins generally back it up too.
Not many cows out around here, i intend to keep mine into early june (the usual time) or perhaps longer. I have more than enough silage in the pit. Plus my ground needs digger work.

tellmeabit

I see weanling prices in cork look way behind the prices I used to see on roscommom mart online. Maybe that's far away hills are greener