Rent Bubble

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Hi All,

I'm curious to see from anyone who has knowledge of economics, what is the next phase after this current rent bubble?

Clearly the rent levels can't keep rising to above unaffordable levels which they are currently at. What is eventually going to give?

quadrifoglio verde

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Hi All,

I'm curious to see from anyone who has knowledge of economics, what is the next phase after this current rent bubble?

Clearly the rent levels can't keep rising to above unaffordable levels which they are currently at. What is eventually going to give?

Plateau until supply comes on board
Once supply comes on board prices will fall until the new supply is filled

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Is there much supply coming on board?

Bredabe

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Is there much supply coming on board?

According to the jnr min for housing today, there are houses being built, BUT as we lost most of our builders in the recession and few want to return to an uncertain market....., the training course for builders only started in '15 and is 4 years long, I won't have much hope for a proper building in this decade. As for rent as it's so connected with politics, I would expect a big burst and then a plateaux, tho I dont know how affordable those rents will be either.

KyussBeeshop

There are houses being built, ya - but not nearly enough, so we're going to have rising prices and rents for a very long time still (looking at probably half a decade or more of this continuing, if not longer).
https://brianmlucey.wordpress.com/2016/06/10/irelands-new-housing-crisis-in-2-charts/

Our government appear (judging by actions, not words) to actively be pushing for a significant increase in house prices/rents, with having successfully pushed for the relaxation of mortgage restrictions, and with the aid given to first time buyers:

Ronan Lyons, economist at Trinity College Dublin and author of the Daft.ie Report, said: "The combined effect of the tweaks to Central Bank mortgage rules and the new help-to-buy scheme has been to significantly stimulate first-time buyer demand.

http://www.rte.ie/news/economy/2017/0402/864526-house-prices-surge-in-the-first-three-months-of-year/

Arcade_Tryer

The youth are really being screwed here.

Just when recent graduates are starting to recover from coming out of college during a recession, they're hit by the Dublin rental market!

Bredabe

Arcade_Tryer wrote: »

The youth are really being screwed here.

Just when recent graduates are starting to recover from coming out of college during a recession, they're hit by the Dublin rental market!

Not just the young, I had to downsize and was forced by high rents into a house share arrangement, needless to say, didn't work well. But the question of interest to me is, what happens to those of us who were forced to spend our money on other things than houses in the bubble and in not great paying jobs who dont want to rent in party houses or shared accommodation?

Pawwed Rig

Bredabe wrote: »

But the question of interest to me is, what happens to those of us who were forced to spend our money on other things than houses in the bubble and in not great paying jobs who dont want to rent in party houses or shared accommodation?

If you're willing to commute there are still affordable rents going. Not ideal but something alot of people did in the last boom.

Bredabe

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

If you're willing to commute there are still affordable rents going. Not ideal but something alot of people did in the last boom.

I commute for work, so when Im home, I like to stay in one place. I need to be in the middle of things, if the market was structured properly there would be rents affordable for me as well.

Last affordable rent I saw was outside dundalk and now and in the future no buses, not a great option. Ive always said the rental market here need restructuring for those of us who will buy later in life if at all.

KyussBeeshop

Bredabe wrote: »

Not just the young, I had to downsize and was forced by high rents into a house share arrangement, needless to say, didn't work well. But the question of interest to me is, what happens to those of us who were forced to spend our money on other things than houses in the bubble and in not great paying jobs who dont want to rent in party houses or shared accommodation?

Long story short, you'll be gentrified to the outer limits of the city - or just out of the city altogether.

Bredabe

KyussBeeshop wrote: »

Long story short, you'll be gentrified to the outer limits of the city - or just out of the city altogether.

I fear you are right, its actually easier and only slightly more expensive to get a nice longterm place here in london. something wrong in that.