Storm babs - nervous flyer

Burts Bee

Hi guys

I'm flying cork to Newcastle around 2pm tomorrow with stobart. Any ideas how bad the flight Will be, if it even takes off? Help a gal out woulda?

Burts bee

PukkaStukka

Not to be flippant. but if the flight is allowed take off then you can take it that its safe to fly.

JCX BXC

You likely to be fine, as I've said in the weather forum Stobart can use RWY25 at cork and the wind should be around 250 degrees, so no need to fret. The use of RWY25 for landing requires a suitable cloud ceiling (Basically, the clouds have to be a certain height from the ground) and visibility, but for takeoff it does not.

I'll update here for all Irish airports when the 5pm TAF comes out.

martinsvi

..well.. on the positive side - flight should be quite quick!

Tabnabs

Nothing to worry about, just stay buckled in.

sparrowcar

Burts Bee wrote: »

Hi guys

I'm flying cork to Newcastle around 2pm tomorrow with stobart. Any ideas how bad the flight Will be, if it even takes off? Help a gal out woulda?

Burts bee

You're not doing yourself any favours asking here the past few days. Sometimes less knowledge is better.

You'll be fine, it might be a bit bumpy on take off and landing but you'll still be fine. If it's not safe it won't fly.

Burts Bee

JCX BXC wrote: »

You likely to be fine, as I've said in the weather forum Stobart can use RWY25 at cork and the wind should be around 250 degrees, so no need to fret. The use of RWY25 for landing requires a suitable cloud ceiling (Basically, the clouds have to be a certain height from the ground) and visibility, but for takeoff it does not.

I'll update here for all Irish airports when the 5pm TAF comes out.

Thanks so much. Sorry to be showing my full neurosis on boards!

Burts Bee

martinsvi wrote: »

..well.. on the positive side - flight should be quite quick!

Mother divine jaysus

Burts Bee

sparrowcar wrote: »

You're not doing yourself any favours asking here the past few days. Sometimes less knowledge is better.

What do you mean?!

JCX BXC

Is that ground level winds or is that at a certain altitude martinsvi?

Seems a bit slow for high altitudes!

sparrowcar

Burts Bee wrote: »

sparrowcar wrote: »

You're not doing yourself any favours asking here the past few days. Sometimes less knowledge is better.

What do you mean?!

I've seen you post in the weather forum as well about your flight. You're hoping someone will factually tell you that your flight will be perfectly smooth, clear and normal but it won't be.

Your flying on a stormy day so it's going to be somewhat unpleasant... but.. you'll be fine.

What I'm trying to say is don't search for answer you don't want as that is exactly what you'll find.

JCX BXC

For anyone flying tomorrow, or anyone who has family coming home tomorrow, I've typed this hopefully to reassure you to an extent!

How does wind affect takeoffs/landings?

All aircraft have limits as to what crosswind they can accept for takeoff and landing. This depends on the wind direction, wind strength and condition of the runway (Basically is it Dry, Damp or Wet). Limits also vary from Aircraft and Airline.

The runway number is what direction it's heading. In Dublin there is Runway 28/10 and Runway 16/34. Runway 28 for example is facing 280 degrees, so almost completely westerly. Runway 10 is the other end of the same runway facing 100 degrees, so easterly.

If the wind is say 220 degrees at Dublin, it is a 60 degrees crosswind for both RWY 28 and 16, so it's the worst possible wind direction. Of course when the wind gusts is less than 25/30 knots like it is most days this doesn't affect operations. Also worth mentioning the predominant wind at the airport is infact westerly.

If the wind is within limits, an aircraft may make an approach to the field. If wind shear is encountered (rapid changes in wind speed/direction) on the approach, the aircraft may go around(climb again and discontinue the approach, like you're taking off again). If while on the approach the wind goes out of limits, the aircraft may continue the approach and then go around. If you encounter a go-around, don't be scared, this is entirely normal and happens on a daily basis at most international airports for a variety of reasons.

Runways at Irish airports:

Dublin
Runway 28/10 - Main Runway
Runway 16/34 - Secondary/Crosswind Runway

Cork
Runway 17/35 - Main Runway
Runway 25/07 - Secondary/Crosswind Runway - Propeller aircraft only

Shannon
Runway 24/06 - Main Runway

Knock
Runway 27/09 - Main Runway

Kerry
Runway 26/08 - Main Runway

Donegal
Runway 21/03 - Main Runway


The 5pm TAF gives the following for Irish airports:

Dublin

Becoming 2am-4am wind 200 degrees (SSW) 18kts gusting 28kts
Becoming 7am-9am wind 210 degrees (SSW) 25kts gusting 44kts
Tempo 8am-4pm 5000m light rain
Becoming 1pm-3pm wind 260 degrees (W) at 24kts gusting 34kts

Dublin may have delays from around 6am-10am tomorrow morning, but after that the wind seems to decrease and become a more favourable direction. RWY16 may be in use.


Cork

Becoming 12am-3am wind 200 degrees 20kts gusting 30kts
Becoming 7am-9am wind 210 degrees 25kts gusting 45kts
Becoming 11am-1pm wind 270 degrees 25kts gusting 35kts
Becoming 5pm-6pm wind 270 degrees 14kts

Some disruption possible from 11am-1pm for jets, other than that it looks okay


Shannon

Becoming 2am-5am wind 180 degrees 22kts gusting 35kts
Becoming 10am-12pm wind 260 degrees 25kts gusting 39kts

No disruption expected


Knock

Becoming 12am-2am wind 180 degrees 20kts gusting 30kts
Becoming 8am-10am wind 210 degrees 32kts gusting 42kts
Becoming 10am-12am wind 260 degrees 25kts gusting 38kts

Possible disruption to the first flight of the morning from Liverpool as there is a strong crosswind, after that the rest of the flights should be fine

Will update more later. I have just the main points of the TAF in there decoded.



Useful Links:

https://www.flightradar24.com/

Flightradar is great for tracking flights in and out of airports all over the world. There is quite good radar coverage in Ireland.


http://www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=Eidw - For Dublin
http://www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=eick - For Cork
http://www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=einn - For Shannon
http://www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=eikn - For Knock

Live ATC is for listening for communications between aircraft and the people working in Air Traffic Control. The Dublin feed is run for us by a user here himself, Mech 1, who regularly asks us for our input to make the feed better.

martinsvi

JCX BXC wrote: »

Is that ground level winds or is that at a certain altitude martinsvi?

Seems a bit slow for high altitudes!

The spot wind charts for altitude don't reach that far in future, this is surface forecast. GFS for midday tomorrow at 500 hpa altitude is showing around 70-75kt

martinsvi

look, it's not going to be any worse than riding in a back of the van on a country road whilst terribly hangover.. just make sure you have a plastic bag handy, your blood sugars are ok, and if you have ever suffered from motion sickness, maybe get some B6 vitamins and ginger tabs or something in your system

PukkaStukka

Runway headings for Newcastle are the same as Cork. The predicted wind directions are fine for landing there tomorrow too.

I would be hopeful that flightwise, the OP's day tomorrow wouldn't be anything significant.

JCX BXC

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Runway headings for Newcastle are the same as Cork. The predicted wind directions are fine for landing there tomorrow too.

I would be hopeful that flightwise, the OP's day tomorrow wouldn't be anything significant.

36kts from 200 degrees is the worst for Newcastle tomorrow, nothing major. The main features in the North East of England will be rain tomorrow seemingly.

kittensmittens

Just wanted to say thanks to the posters who took the time to post in both the weather forum and here(JCX BXC esp ) re people asking about flights and tomorrows storm.
Its such an important time for travel for so many people that naturally there will be worries re bad flights on no bloody flight at all

I'm still "hopeful" that my flight will go ahead on time so I can catch my connection and hope everyone has a lovely Xmas

highlydebased

To be honest I don't think you should expect it to be any more bumpy than a typical winter's flight. I remember flying in one of the first big storms of 2016 thinking it would be terrible, when, other than a bumpy takeoff, that was about all.

Am actually flying home from London myself tomorrow night but am expecting a straightforward flight

Burts Bee

sparrowcar wrote: »

Burts Bee wrote: »

I've seen you post in the weather forum as well about your flight. You're hoping someone will factually tell you that your flight will be perfectly smooth, clear and normal but it won't be.

Your flying on a stormy day so it's going to be somewhat unpleasant... but.. you'll be fine.

What I'm trying to say is don't search for answer you don't want as that is exactly what you'll find.

You're totally right, it's just my way of trying to deal with this annoying, stupid fear of flying.

endacl

Burts Bee wrote: »

sparrowcar wrote: »

You're totally right, it's just my way of trying to deal with this annoying, stupid fear of flying.

Your flight will be perfectly smooth, clear and normal*, and that is a fact.



* For the prevailing weather conditions**

** Subject to the laws of physics.

Spanish Eyes

Benzo Diazepeme. or Valium in the old days.

I may be banned of course for saying that, but sometimes they have their place for once off usage.

Often, despite all the great information on A and A Board, many people will just panic anyway, so get a little help just once and enjoy the flight and of course Christmas.

Burts Bee

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Benzo Diazepeme. or Valium in the old days.

I may be banned of course for saying that, but sometimes they have their place for once off usage.

Often, despite all the great information on A and A Board, many people will just panic anyway, so get a little help just once and enjoy the flight and of course Christmas.

I have 14 zanex on my person and I'm not afraid to use them. Hopefully I'll be carried off the plane....

JCX BXC

Wind looking a bit worse on the 11pm update for Dublin.

Dublin

Becoming 5am-7am wind 200 degrees (SSW) 22kts gusting 33kts
Prob 40% Temporary 10am-2pm 4000m moderate rain
Becoming 9am-1pm wind 210 degrees (SSW) 30kts gusting 45kts
Becoming 12pm-2pm wind 260 degrees (W) 25kts gusting 38kts

From 9am-1pm it's looking tricky, with a likely wet runway and gusts of up to 45kts there may be some disruption. Also worth noting the DAA announced earlier that they don't foresee any disruption.

Cork

Becoming 7am-9am wind 210 degrees (SSW) 25kts gusting 45kts
Temporary 9am-1pm 3000m moderate rain broken clouds 500ft
Becoming 11am-1pm 270 degrees (W) 25kts gusting 35kts

Jets may have an issue after 11am for a short period

Shannon

Becoming 2am-5am 190 degrees (S) 22kts gusting 35kts
Temporary 9am-12am 4000m moderate rain
Becoming 10am-12pm 260 degrees (W) 25kts gusting 40kts

I don't foresee any issues, Shannon would likely be a popular diversion airport for Dublin

Knock

Becoming 12am-3am 180 degrees 20kts gusting 30kts
Temporary 6am-11am 3000m moderate rain
Becoming 7am-9am 200 dgerees (SSW) 32kts gusting 45kts
Becoming 10am-12pm 260 degrees (W) 25kts gusting 40kts

As earlier, before 10am some disruption possible, after 10am should be fine.

JCX BXC

No disruption as of yet. Slight delays at at Dublin that's about it.

martinsvi

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I may be banned of course for saying that,

this is aviation and aircraft forum, according to popular belief we are all angry alcoholics and junkies.. :pac:

faceman

Hi OP. I'm a bit late to the party now but you might find this podcast link useful. It's less than 30 minutes long and a pilot chats about why turbulence is normal and not anything to be concerned with.

http://fearofflyingschool.com/airplane-turbulence

Do post back and tell us how your flight goes!

Burts Bee

I will for sure. You've all been so nice! Thanks a million.

highlydebased

Well, how was the flight OP?

Aside from an hours delay owing to a non-weather issue, mine was boring!