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€200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

  • 25-11-2016 02:09PM
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 501 ✭✭✭


    I will have a bit of fun with a betting log where I will attempt to turn €200 into €10,000 by the end of the current football season which ends with the Champions League Final on 3rd June.

    Each round of bets will be the same where I will choose 3 bets and stake 100% of the current bankroll amount across the bets in a way that each payout will be equal to the others.

    Bets will be primarily from the English Premier League and Champions League.

    I will assign an estimated strike rate for each bet and the corresponding expected value.

    I will choose the best price from a range of bookmakers: Bet365 | BetFred | BetVictor | Paddy Power | Stan James | Ladbrokes | Coral | William Hill

    *This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example.

    *Should the betting log be completed successfully I will donate €500 of the winnings to Concern Worldwide - a charity that works with the world’s poorest people to transform their lives.


Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Division


    Betting Round 1:

    English Premier League
    Hull v West Brom
    Bet: West Brom Win or Draw Double Chance @ 1.4 Ladbrokes
    Expected Strike Rate: 82.2% | Expected Value: 115.1%
    Stake: €67

    English Premier League
    Swansea v Crystal Palace
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 74.8% | Expected Value: 127.2%
    Stake: €56

    English Premier League
    Man Utd v West Ham
    Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 105.7%
    Stake: €77


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Division


    Results - Betting Round 1

    Hull 1-1 West Brom
    Swansea 5-4 Crystal Palace
    Man Utd 1-1 West Ham

    Current Balance: €282


  • Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 950 ✭✭✭mickmackmcgoo


    Good start. I'll join in with you on your next selections for a bit of fun


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Division


    Betting Round 2:

    English Premier League
    Crystal Palace v Southampton
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.8 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 70.4% | Expected Value: 126.7%
    Stake: €82

    Spanish Primera Division
    Barcelona v Real Madrid
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.44 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 74.3% | Expected Value: 107.1%
    Stake: €102

    Champions League
    Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.5 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 75.6% | Expected Value: 113.4%
    Stake: €98


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Division


    Results - Betting Round 2

    Crystal Palace 3–0 Southampton
    Barcelona 1–1 Real Madrid
    Real Madrid 2–2 Borussia Dortmund

    Current Balance: €294


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Division


    Betting Round 3:

    English Premier League
    Everton v Arsenal
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 68.7% | Expected Value: 114.7%
    Stake: €81

    English Premier League
    West Ham v Burnley
    Bet: West Ham Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 108.3%
    Stake: €108

    English Premier League
    Crystal Palace v Man Utd
    Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.29 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 84.5% | Expected Value: 109.1%
    Stake: €105


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Division


    Results - Betting Round 3

    Everton 2-1 Arsenal
    West Ham 1-0 Burnley
    Crystal Palace 1-2 Man Utd

    Current Balance: €406


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Division


    Betting Round 4:

    English Premier League
    Tottenham v Burnley
    Bet: Tottenham Win To Nil @ 1.92 Bet Victor
    Expected Strike Rate: 60.2% | Expected Value 115.7%
    Stake: €99

    English Premier League
    West Ham v Hull
    Bet: West Ham Draw No Bet @ 1.25 Bet Victor
    Expected Strike Rate: 85.9% | Expected Value 107.4%
    Stake: €152

    English Premier League
    Everton v Liverpool
    Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet Victor
    Expected Strike Rate: 91.2% | Expected Value 111.3%
    Stake: €155


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 479 ✭✭kopite davo


    are you still doing it?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 688 ✭✭✭wush06


    Also interested


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Division


    Results - Betting Round 4

    Tottenham 2-1 Burnley
    West Ham 1-0 Hull
    Everton 0-1 Liverpool

    Current Balance: €190

    English Premier League
    Everton v Man City
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 63.7% | Expected Value 108.4%
    Stake: €58

    English Premier League
    Swansea v Arsenal
    Bet: Arsenal To Win @ 1.53 Paddy Power
    Expected Strike Rate: 73% | Expected Value 111.8%
    Stake: €64

    Spanish La Liga
    Sevilla v Real Madrid
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.45 Bet Victor
    Expected Strike Rate: 73.9% | Expected Value 107.2%
    Stake: €68


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Division


    Results - Betting Round 5

    Swansea 0-4 Arsenal
    Sevilla 2-1 Real Madrid
    Everton 4-0 Man City

    Current Balance: €197

    German Bundesliga
    Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.57 Stan James
    Expected Strike Rate: 69.9% | Expected Value 109.7%
    Stake: €62

    English Premier League
    Man City v Tottenham
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 64.3% | Expected Value 107.4%
    Stake: €58

    English Premier League
    West Brom v Sunderland
    Bet: West Brom To Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Stan James
    Expected Strike Rate: 88.4% (ex. draw) | Expected Value 110.6%
    Stake: €77


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Division


    Results - Betting Round 6

    Werder Bremen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
    Man City 2-2 Tottenham
    West Brom 2-0 Sunderland

    Current Balance: €290

    German Bundesliga
    Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Monchengladbach
    Bet: Bayer Leverkusen To Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.36 Bet Victor
    Expected Strike Rate: 79.6% (ex. draw) | Expected Value 108.3%
    Stake: €102

    Spanish La Liga
    Espanyol v Sevilla
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 64.1% | Expected Value 109.1%
    Stake: €81

    Spanish La Liga
    Betis v Barcelona
    Bet: Barcelona To Win @ 1.3 Stan James
    Expected Strike Rate: 82.1% | Expected Value 106.8%
    Stake: €107


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Division


    Results - Betting Round 7

    Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 Borussia Monchengladbach
    Espanyol 3-1 Sevilla
    Betis 1-1 Barcelona

    Current Balance: €138

    English Premier League
    Middlesbrough v West Brom
    Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.5 BetFred
    Expected Strike Rate: 71.1% | Expected Value 106.7%
    Stake: €43

    English Premier League
    Liverpool v Chelsea
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.83 William Hill
    Expected Strike Rate: 58.7% | Expected Value 107.4%
    Stake: €36

    English Premier League
    Man Utd v Hull
    Bet: Man Utd To Win @ 1.2 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 90.1% | Expected Value 108.1%
    Stake: €52


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,482 ✭✭✭Hollister11


    Interesting read so far.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Division


    Results - Betting Round 8

    Middlesbrough 1-1 West Brom
    Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea
    Man Utd 0-0 Hull

    Current Balance: €137

    English Premier League
    Stoke v Crystal Palace
    Bet: Stoke Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.3 Ladbrokes
    Expected Strike Rate: 82.5% | Expected Value 107.3%
    Stake: €53

    English Premier League
    Liverpool v Tottenham
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 Coral
    Expected Strike Rate: 62.7% | Expected Value 108.6%
    Stake: €39

    German Bundesliga
    Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim
    Bet: Hoffenheim Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.53 Ladbrokes
    Expected Strike Rate: 73.2% | Expected Value 112.1%
    Stake: €45


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Division


    Results - Betting Round 9

    Stoke 1-0 Crystal Palace
    Liverpool 2-0 Tottenham
    Wolfsburg 2-1 Hoffenheim

    Current Balance: €69

    Champions League
    Benfica v Borussia Dortmund
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 Stan James
    Expected Strike Rate: 63% | Expected Value 109.1%
    Stake: €22

    Champions League
    Real Madrid v Napoli
    Bet: Napoli +2 Handicap @ 1.53 Stan James
    Expected Strike Rate: 69.5% | Expected Value 106.4%
    Stake: €25

    Champions League
    PSG v Barcelona
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Stan James
    Expected Strike Rate: 65% | Expected Value 108.7%
    Stake: €22


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Division


    I won't be continuing the log in its current format. The stake percentage is simply too high.

    To quote my opening post:

    "This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example."

    I am currently formulating a more traditional strategy but one that will allow the objective to be completed within a reasonably time frame so I will be back soon but I have to run a few more simulations to finalise a strategy that I am happy with that will have a much greater chance of success but over a longer time frame. I bet a flat stake of 2% with my main bankroll but that won't be suitable for this log so I'm looking to see what stake percentage I am comfortable with but it will be less than a half Kelly stake.

    Regarding my pledge to donate €500 to Concern Worldwide this will stand for the new betting log and I will continue with the log for however long it takes to complete it successfully.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,380 ✭✭✭The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman


    Can I ask how you are working out your expected value? Just interested in what sort of system you're taking your information from?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Division


    Its a personal opinion. I assign a percentage chance to each team scoring a exact number of goals based on many factors (mainly my experience with the league which is why I don't cover multiple sports and focus on a couple of leagues) which then provide percentages for various outcomes and the associated odds using excel.


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