7th Annual Winter Forecast Contest (2016-17) -- enter by 0300h 3 Dec

M.T. Cranium

WELCOME to the Seventh Annual Winter Forecast Contest. The rules will be similar to past years, first prize is the respect of your peers and any favours you can obtain from the general public (don't expect much).

The deadline will give you a chance to peer into the first week of December with some idea what's going on as the season starts. In weather circles, winter is December, January and February, and that will be the basis of our contest. Read the rules carefully and feel free to enter any time before the deadline ...

Entries accepted until 0300h Saturday 3 December with a possible extension of no more than 48h depending on number of entries and how I assess the fairness of that extension. For sure, any entries after Sunday 4 Dec will not count for the contest.

The top scores in past years were close to 75/100 to give you some idea of what the standard is. Here are the rules, look at the end of this post for a template that you can use to enter. I will make an effort to review all entries and contact anyone who has an incomplete entry. It's up to you to be familiar with the rules in each question.

(1) For each month Dec Jan Feb, predict the "IMT" which is the Irish Mean Temperature, a statistic developed on this forum by Deep Easterly, and the average of five stations in central inland locations (Shannon, Oak Park, Mullingar, Casement, Claremorris). For newbies, this is the average of daily highs and lows. Over recent 30-year periods, the means have been around 5.6 in Dec, 5.3 in Jan and 5.2 in Feb. Very mild months would run around 8-9 C and very cold ones a little below freezing (Dec 2010 was -0.4). These forecasts generate 5 points each, and the seasonal average, which you don't need to calculate (I do that from your entries) counts for 15 points.

(2) For each month Dec Jan Feb, predict the monthly precipitation as a percentage of normal values. This is calculated as in our monthly forecast contest, from records taken at eleven stations that report in the Met Eireann Monthly Summary. Those are the five mentioned above plus Valentia, Cork, Johnstown Castle, Belmullet, Ballyhaise and Malin Head. Note that Dublin is not included. Values under 50% are considered exceptionally dry and above 200% exceptionally wet (for your guidance). The scoring for these three forecasts and the seasonal average which again you don't need to enter, will also be 5,5,5 and 15 points.

(3) For all the reporting stations of Met Eireann, as reported in their Monthly Summary, predict the seasonal highest and lowest temperatures. This will apply only to dates from 1 Dec to 28 Feb for the max, but can apply to dates both before and after the winter for the min (up to 15 April when the contest results are declared). The max in the past three winters has been close to 15 and the min during the first contest was about -16 but then more like -6 in the second contest, -8 winter of 2012-13, and similar values the past two winters. I would guess the long-term average for the winter minimum is around -8 to perhaps -10. These two predictions are worth ten points each.

(4) Predict the seasonal snowfall (in cms) at Casement. This will run from the first measurable snowfall (your forecast should include anything already reported if it does snow in November, check this thread and elsewhere for updates on that) to 15 April (anything after that won't count as the contest is over on 15 April). These daily snowfall values (if they occur) are measured at hourly intervals and summed, which means the snow depth at any point might not be quite as much as the snowfall amount. However, amounts vary a lot from season to season. In the first contest winter 2010-11, there was about 50 or 60 cms but then we used a stat from Boards member "Danno" in Laois who had about 30 cms. In 2011-12, I believe there was almost zero accumulation and our lowest contest guess had the highest score. This was similar to the past four winters when most of the field guessed higher than what actually fell at Casement (something like 7 cm in 2012-13 and 3 cm in 2013-14 and 2 cm in 2014-15, 3 cm in 2015-16). This part is worth ten points.

(5) Finally, predict the highest wind gust in knots at any reporting station in Ireland as per the Met Eireann Monthly Summary, but note that in this case, the period is only the three winter months -- strong winds in November or March or early April won't count, the gust has to be between 1 Dec and 28 Feb. Knots are almost double km/hr and about 1.15 times mph. Values between 70 and 100 knots are most likely to verify from climatology, the extreme range would be about 50 to 120 for this statistic. This part is also worth ten points.

Note: All scores are based on rank order, not absolute differences from prediction to actual values. This equalizes the various sections of the contest and distributes the scores evenly. Once we establish the number of entries, I will update this scoring system, but basically, 10% of the entries get top scores in each category and then on down, with any odd numbers left over getting the zero scores. Where it's 10 points, the gradations are 10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,0 and where 5 points, half of those values, where 15 we will give equal numbers of scores, and let you know later how many will share each score (based on number of entries).

So, here's the template, once you understand what to predict, just change all the letters here to number values and block copy, submit along with your comments etc. We're open for entries although you'd be smart to wait until near the end of November or the first of December. You can edit your post without notifying me at any time up to whenever you see the entries cut off announced and a table appearing in the thread. I don't work on that until the cut off, so edit at will, I won't know except for the forum software making a note of it.

TEMPLATE FOR ENTRIES

DEC-IMT
JAN-IMT
FEB-IMT

DEC-PRC
JAN-PRC
FEB-PRC

MAX TEMP C

MIN TEMP C

SNOW cms

GUST kts

(all temps can have one decimal place, prc % to nearest whole number, snow can also have one decimal place, gust to nearest whole number)

Good luck and check back, also, if you are new to our contests, check out the December monthly contest when it's announced in the last few days of this month. We do those every month.

(Use this template if at all possible)

0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0 ___ 100 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 10.0 _ -10.0 __ 00.0 ___ 00

This will be my entry unless I decide to edit it before the deadline:

4.0 _ 5.8 _ 5.5 ___ 120 _ 140 _ 110 ____ 15.7 _ -11.5 _ 32.5 (cm) __ 80 (kts)

Note -- I will take the consensus values of the entries, and report on that in the winter 2016-17 thread as the "Boards consensus forecast" so be a part of that.

Last winter, the contest winner was Omicron and I see that because everything was determined by end of February, I neglected to post in that thread in April that the provisional table was therefore the final scoring table. Apologies to all.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ___ 4.9 _ 4.9 _ 4.3 ___ 80 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 16.0 _ -11.0 __ 10.0 ___ 85

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

sryanbruen ___ 4.9 _ 4.9 _ 4.3 ___ 80 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 16.0 _ -11.0 __ 10.0 ___ 85

EDIT: sryanbruen ___ 4.2 _ 4.9 _ 5.6 ___ 50 _ 90 _ 120 ___ 16.0 _ -11.0 __ 10.0 ___ 85

(December and February adjustments)

pauldry

pauldry___ 6.1 _ 6.8 _ 7.0 ___ 90 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 17.1 _ -7.4__ 9.6___ 69

Bsal

Bsal___5.7__ 5.5 _ 5.0 ___ 125 _ 110 _ 155 ____ 15.5 _ -8.0 _ 5 (cm) __ 79 (kts)

Seaswimmer

Seaswimmerl___5.1__ 4.8 _ 4.7 ___ 95 _ 105_ 90 ____ 16 _ -9.0 _ 17 (cm) __ 68 (kts)

cdev

cdev___ 4.9 _ 5.1 _ 4.5 ___ 85 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 17.0 _ -9.0 __ 13.5(cm) ___ 83(kts)

Rikand

Rikand ___ 4.5 _ 4.5 _ 6.0 ___ 80 _ 90 _ 140 ___ 17.0 ___ -9.0 ___ 15 cm ___ 80 kts

sunflower3

Sunflower3 ___ 4.5 _ 5.5 _ 6.2 ___ 90 _ 105 _ 120 ___ 16.2 ___ -8.5 ___ 8 cm ___ 65 kts

force eleven

Force Eleven______5.9 _ 6.4 _ 4.6 ___ 87 _ 120 _ 90 ___ 15.8 ___ -9.4 ___ 4 cm ___ 72 kts

dacogawa

Dacogawa______5.0 _ 4.2 _ 4.8 ___ 84 _ 104 _ 120 ___ 16.2 ___ -10.7 ___ 12 cm ___ 78 kts

DOCARCH

DOCARCH____ 6.1 _ 4.8 _ 5.3 ___ 116 _ 80 _ 98 ___ 16.2 _ -8.6 __ 14.5 ___ 78

mrskinner

Skinner.----: 5.4...5.4...4.7../...88...110...120../...16.5... --10....10....70

M.T. Cranium

Okay, I let the deadline run a bit over the time, anyone who wants to edit can go ahead today (Sunday 4th), and the contest will close for entries at 0300h Monday 5th. Given the bland pattern at the moment I don't think this slight adjustment gives anyone many clues, but I have not recorded anything yet, no need to post again if you can edit a post.

John mac

john mac__5.2 _ 4.6 _ 4.8 ___ 99 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 16.2 _ -8.0 __ 26.0 ___ 73

Thought i had entered this one last week . must have forgotten to post it after filling it in ..

waterways

5.4_ 5.6 _ 5.7 ___ 120 _ 100_ 150 ____ 17.8 _ -13_ 21.0 __ 80

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for winter 2016-17 contest

Contest is now closed to further entries. Your mean IMT and PRC are calculated from your monthly values without weighting the shorter duration of February. Weighting would move the averages slightly closer to the Jan-Feb mean but differences are slight. Forecasts are presented in order of mildest to coldest mean winter temperature.


FORECASTER ___ IMT Dec/Jan/Feb_mean__PRC Dec/Jan/Feb_mean__MAX__MIN__SNOW__GUST

pauldry _________ 6.1_6.8_7.0 __ 6.67___090_110_100__100 ___ 17.1 __--7.4 ___ 9.6 __ 69
Waterways ______ 5.4_5.6_5.7 __ 5.57___120_100_150__123 ___ 17.8 _--13.0 __ 21.0 __ 80
Force Eleven _____ 5.9_6.4_4.6 __ 5.63___087_120_090__099 ___ 15.8 __--9.4 ___ 4.0 __ 72
DOCARCH _______ 6.1_4.8_5.3 __ 5.40___116_080_098__098 ___ 16.2 __--8.6 __ 14.5 __ 78
Bsal ____________5.7_5.5_5.0 __ 5.40___125_110_155__130 ___ 15.5 __--8.0 ___ 5.0 __ 79
Sunflower3 ______ 4.5_5.5_6.2 __ 5.40___090_105_120__105 ___ 16.2 __--8.5 ___ 8.0 __ 65
MrSkinner _______ 5.4_5.4_4.7 __ 5.17___088_110_120__106 ___ 16.5 _--10.0 __ 10.0 __ 70
M.T. Cranium _____4.0_5.8_5.5 __ 5.10___120_140_110__123 ___ 15.7 _--11.5 __ 32.5 __ 80
Rikand __________4.5_4.5_6.0 __ 5.00___080_090_140__103 ___ 17.0 __--9.0 __ 15.0 __ 80
sryanbruen ______ 4.2_4.9_5.6 __ 4.90___050_090_120__087 ___ 16.0 _--11.0 __ 10.0 __ 85
john mac ________5.2_4.6_4.8 __ 4.87___099_110_115__108 ___ 16.2 __--8.0 __ 26.0 __ 73
Seaswimmer______5.1_4.8_4.7 __ 4.87___095_105_090__097 ___ 16.0 __--9.0 __ 17.0 __ 68
cdev____________ 4.9_5.1_4.5 __ 4.83___085_110_100__098 ___ 17.0 __--9.0 __ 13.5 __ 83
Dacogawa _______ 5.0_4.2_4.8 __ 4.67___084_104_120__103 ___ 16.2 _--10.7 __ 12.0 __ 78
_________________________________________________________

Fourteen entries, Scoring will be from 15 down to 2 points on the IMT and PRC seasonals, and for items out of 5 or 10, based on one max score (10 or 5.0), one min score (zero) and the other 12 taking the nine remaining spots with two sharing each of fourth, eighth and eleventh positions (so in other words, for items out of 10, scores will run 10, 9, 8, 7,7, 6, 5, 4,4, 3, 2,2, 1, 0. ... for those out of five, take half of those numbers). Ties may make this more complicated, for instance I notice a few MIN share --9.0 as the forecast. We'll sort it out anyway.

pauldry

Top of the table for a month anyways!☺

M.T. Cranium

December IMT was 6.6 and the precipitation a rather dry 74%.

Snowfall of 1 cm so far, and 60 knots the max wind gust, 16.0 MAX, MIN was colder in November than the --5.9 in December.

Scores (out of 5 in each category) so far (assuming we may see higher wind gusts and lower MIN, possibly a higher MAX too although that may qualify. Scores in brackets represent what you would get if none of MAX, MIN or GUST change from current values. These are each out of ten points.


FORECASTER ___ Dec IMT _ Dec PRC __Total for Dec __ (MAX) _ (MIN) _ (GUST)

Pauldry ____________ 5.0 _____ 3.0 ______8.0 ______ ( 1) ___ (10) ___ ( 8)
force eleven _________4.0 _____ 3.5 ______7.5 ______ ( 8) ___ ( 4) ___ ( 7)
MrSkinner __________ 3.5 _____ 3.5 ______7.0 ______ ( 4) ___ ( 3) ___ ( 7)
Dacogawa __________ 2.0 _____ 4.5 ______6.5 ______ ( 8) ___ ( 2) ___ ( 5)
DOCARCH __________ 5.0 _____ 1.0 ______6.0 ______ ( 8) ___ ( 7) ___ ( 5)
Rikand _____________1.0 _____ 5.0 ______6.0 ______ ( 2) ___ ( 6) ___ ( 3)
cdev _______________1.5 _____ 4.0 ______5.5 ______ ( 2) ___ ( 6) ___ ( 1)
waterways __________3.5 _____ 1.0 ______4.5 ______ ( 0) ___ ( 0) ___ ( 3)
John mac ___________2.5 _____ 1.5 ______4.0 ______ ( 8) ___ ( 9) ___ ( 6)
sunflower3 _________ 1.0 _____ 3.0 ______4.0 ______ ( 8) ___ ( 7) ___ (10)
seaswimmer ________ 2.0 _____ 2.0 ______4.0 ______(10) ___ ( 6) ___ ( 9)
Bsal _______________3.5 _____ 0.0 ______3.5 ______ ( 4) ___ ( 9) ___ ( 4)
sryanbruen _________ 0.5 _____ 2.0 ______2.5 ______ (10) ___ ( 2) ___ ( 0)
M.T. Cranium ________0.0 _____ 1.0 ______1.0 ______ ( 4) ___ ( 1) ___ ( 3)

M.T. Cranium

Update on scoring after January 2017

The IMT in January was a mild 6.0, and the PRC a very dry 54% of normal. There was no wind gust stronger than we saw in December, nor a more extreme MAX or MIN. There was no snow at Casement. Here are the updated scores to date: The two added January scores are in bold type to make them easier to spot.


FORECASTER ___ Dec, Jan IMT _ Dec, Jan PRC __ Total _____ (MAX) _ (MIN) _ (GUST)

Pauldry __________ 5.0 _ 2.5 ___ 3.0 _ 2.0 ___12.5 ______ ( 1) ___ (10) ___ ( 8)
force eleven _______4.0 _ 4.5 ___ 3.5 _ 0.5 ___12.5 ______ ( 8) ___ ( 4) ___ ( 7)
DOCARCH ________ 5.0 _ 1.5 ___ 1.0 _ 5.0 ___12.5 ______ ( 8) ___ ( 7) ___ ( 5)
waterways ________3.5 _ 4.5 ___ 1.0 _ 3.5 ___12.5 ______ ( 0) ___ ( 0) ___ ( 3)
MrSkinner ________ 3.5 _ 3.0 ___ 3.5 _ 2.0 ___12.0 ______ ( 4) ___ ( 3) ___ ( 7)
Rikand ___________1.0 _ 0.5 ___ 5.0 _ 4.5 ___11.0 ______ ( 2) ___ ( 6) ___ ( 3)
sunflower3 ________1.0 _ 3.5 ___ 3.0 _ 2.5 ___10.0 ______ ( 8) ___ ( 7) ___ (10)
Dacogawa ________ 2.0 _ 0.0 ___ 4.5 _ 3.0 ___ 9.5 ______ ( 8) ___ ( 2) ___ ( 5)
cdev _____________1.5 _ 2.0 ___ 4.0 _ 2.0 ___ 9.5 ______ ( 2) ___ ( 6) ___ ( 1)
Bsal _____________ 3.5 _ 3.5 ___ 0.0 _ 2.0 ___ 9.0 ______ ( 4) ___ ( 9) ___ ( 4)
sryanbruen ________0.5 _ 2.0 ___ 2.0 _ 4.5 ___ 9.0 ______(10) ___ ( 2) ___ ( 0)
seaswimmer _______2.0 _ 1.5 ___ 2.0 _ 2.5 ___ 8.0 ______(10) ___ ( 6) ___ ( 9)
John mac _________ 2.5 _ 1.0 ___ 1.5 _ 2.0 ___ 7.0 ______ ( 8) ___ ( 9) ___ ( 6)
M.T. Cranium ______ 0.0 _ 5.0 ___ 1.0 _ 0.0 ___ 6.0 ______ ( 4) ___ ( 1) ___ ( 3)
_______________________________________

The scores are in order of the confirmed Dec plus Jan IMT and PRC. The other provisional scores could change if the extremes reached earlier are surpassed. It looks like quite a close race so far.

M.T. Cranium

Update on scoring after February 2017

The IMT in February was a very mild 6.3, which makes the winter average also 6.3 (from 6.6, 6.0 and 6.3).

The PRC made a late surge to 104% after running below normal most of the month. That made the winter average 77% of normal after two rather dry months (74% and 54%).

The qualifying MAX is confirmed to be 16.0 from December as February topped out at 14.9. The MIN remains open to mid-April and so far has not gone lower than it went in November, nor has it reached our highest forecast. In February the minimum was --5.6 C.

The wind gust of 76 knots at Mace Head from storm "Doris" will be the high gust for the contest period (Dec to Feb on this element).

There has yet to be any appreciable snow at Casement, that remains open also until 15th of April. Scores shown below are provisional based on a total of under the contest minimum value.

If there are no colder days or if not much snow falls at Casement, the following scores could be later confirmed as the final scoring for the contest. But those two elements remain in play.

FORECASTER ___ D,J,F IMT_Seas IMT __ D,J,F PRC_Seas PRC __ MAX_MIN_SNOW_GUST ___ TOTAL



DOCARCH ______ 5.0_1.5_2.5 __ 12 __ 1.0_5.0_4.0 __ 13 ____ 8 __ ( 7) ___ ( 4) ___10 ___ 73
force eleven _____4.0_4.5_0.5 __ 14 __ 3.5_0.5_3.5 __ 11 ____ 8 __ ( 4) ___ (10) ___ 7 ___ 70.5
Pauldry ________ 5.0_2.5_3.5 __ 15 __ 3.0_2.0_5.0 __ 10 ____ 1 __ (10) ___ ( 7) ___ 3 ___ 67
sunflower3 ______1.0_3.5_5.0 __ 12 __ 3.0_2.5_2.5 __ 07 ____ 8 __ ( 7) ___ ( 8) ___ 0 ___ 59.5
sryanbruen _____ 0.5_2.0_3.5 __ 06 __ 2.0_4.5_2.5 __ 15 ___ 10 __ ( 2) ___ ( 7) ___ 2 ___ 57
Bsal ___________3.5_3.5_2.0 __ 12 __ 0.0_2.0_0.0 __ 02 ____ 4 __ ( 9) ___ ( 9) ___ 8 ___ 55
seaswimmer ____ 2.0_1.5_1.0 __ 05 __ 2.0_2.5_3.5 __ 14 ___ 10 __ ( 6) ___ ( 2) ___ 2 ___ 51.5
Rikand _________1.0_0.5_4.5 __ 07 __ 5.0_4.5_1.0 __ 09 ____ 2 __ ( 6) ___ ( 3) ___ 7 ___ 50.5
Dacogawa ______ 2.0_0.0_2.0 __ 02 __ 4.5_3.0_2.5 __ 09 ____ 8 __ ( 2) ___ ( 5) __ 10 ___ 50
John mac _______2.5_1.0_2.0 __ 05 __ 1.5_2.0_3.5 __ 05 ____ 8 __ ( 9) ___ ( 1) ___ 8 ___ 48.5
MrSkinner ______ 3.5_3.0_1.0 __ 09 __ 3.5_2.0_2.5 __ 06 ____ 4 __ ( 3) ___ ( 7) ___ 4 ___ 48.5
cdev ___________1.5_2.0_0.0 __ 03 __ 4.0_2.0_5.0 __ 13 ____ 2 __ ( 6) ___ ( 4) ___ 3 ___ 45.5
waterways ______3.5_4.5_4.0 __ 13 __ 1.0_3.5_0.5 __ 04 ____ 0 __ ( 0) ___ ( 2) ___ 7 ___ 43
M.T. Cranium ____0.0_5.0_3.0 __ 08 __ 1.0_0.0_4.0 __ 04 ____ 4 __ ( 1) ___ ( 0) ___ 7 ___ 37
______________________________________1

So, we will revisit this at the end of the contest period to see if any changes in MIN or SNOW affect the scoring. Stay tuned.

pauldry

Damn Doris! cost me even though my gust was closer after it everyone elses was even closer

Well done Docarch