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SP Favourite

  • 14-11-2016 2:20pm
    #1
    gazza1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,137 ✭✭✭


    Since the start of the month the SP FAV in the FIRST race at each meeting in UK or IRELAND has won 37 times from a total of 59 races which is a 62.7% strike rate returning a profit of 39.25 for a 1 euro stake. Im not sure if its just coincidence or is it a trend that is actually worth following.
    Only 1 day, 2nd Nov failed to return a profit.

    would appreciate it if anyone has any thoughts on this.
    GL


Comments

  • #2
    Gregk961
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,135 ✭✭✭Gregk961


    The first race is often a beginners/novice race or a Maiden which are generally less competitive than handicaps or graded races, so you would expect the strike rate of favourites to be noticeably better. Id imagine it returns a healthy loss long term but I couldn't be sure without looking into it.


  • #3
    uxiant
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 282 ✭✭uxiant


    gazza1 wrote: »
    Since the start of the month the SP FAV in the FIRST race at each meeting in UK or IRELAND has won 37 times from a total of 59 races which is a 62.7% strike rate returning a profit of 39.25 for a 1 euro stake. Im not sure if its just coincidence or is it a trend that is actually worth following.
    Only 1 day, 2nd Nov failed to return a profit.

    would appreciate it if anyone has any thoughts on this.
    GL

    59 races is a small sample. That strike rate won't be sustainable and will regress back to the mean over a large sample.


  • #4
    gazza1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,137 ✭✭✭gazza1


    uxiant wrote: »
    59 races is a small sample. That strike rate won't be sustainable and will regress back to the mean over a large sample.

    I will keep it updated for the month and see what it finishes at. I wont put it up daily but will come back with a figure at the end of the month.
    What would you consider a reasonable amount of races as good sample ?
    Thanks


  • #5
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,474 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    gazza1 wrote: »
    I will keep it updated for the month and see what it finishes at. I wont put it up daily but will come back with a figure at the end of the month.
    What would you consider a reasonable amount of races as good sample ?
    Thanks


    It wouldn't really matter, as there is no system. The only way is to back something at a higher price than its chance. Everything else is just history which as the adds say past has no indication of future performance. It would take thousands of races to come to any real conclusion


  • #6
    Copper_pipe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,553 ✭✭✭✭Copper_pipe


    Most of the Irish Meetings have Maidens as the First and chances are a Elliot Horse will be a short price SP


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  • #7
    gazza1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,137 ✭✭✭gazza1


    aidankkk wrote: »
    It wouldn't really matter, as there is no system. The only way is to back something at a higher price than its chance. Everything else is just history which as the adds say past has no indication of future performance. It would take thousands of races to come to any real conclusion

    Thanks for that. I see where your coming from. Ive not kept records of anything like this before. I was going on the lines that maybe punters focus more on the first race as it is the first race and maybe have more time to consider their selection which reflects in the betting.
    I am more than likely plucking at straws.
    Thanks again


  • #8
    uxiant
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 282 ✭✭uxiant


    gazza1 wrote: »
    I will keep it updated for the month and see what it finishes at. I wont put it up daily but will come back with a figure at the end of the month.
    What would you consider a reasonable amount of races as good sample ?
    Thanks

    A bigger sample size means something is less likely to occur due to chance. When I'm looking at trainer trends want a couple of hundred bets at least ideally. However although De Bromhead for example only had 142 horses run 1st time over fences (A/E 1.13) which isn't a huge sample, I would be confident of making a profit long term if I liked one of his under those conditions after going through the race. And the reason I am confident is because I know De Bromhead's are trained to go over fences and therefore are usually better in that sphere. There is a reason why the data speaks favourably.

    There's no reason really why backing favourites in the first race of the day should be profitable on the other hand. That straight away rings alarm bells and then you look at the small sample of 59 bets and it screams coincidence.

    I had a look at the data for favourites in the first race of NH cards in Ireland and the UK over a number of years. Over 10,429 bets the strike rate is 38.45% with a loss at SP of 518.07. That 62.7% strike rate will regress to the mean and will be loss making long term.


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