English St Leger

diomed

Saturday 15:45 Doncaster

There is a lot of love for Idaho who is trading at 1.81 (4/5 in old money).
His last three races: 3rd in the English Derby, 2nd in the Irish Derby, won the Great Voltigeur.
Storm The Stars had the exact same results in 2015 in those races: 3rd; 2nd; won, and went off 2/1 joint favourite in the St Leger finishing 4th.

Idaho's full sibling, Highland Reel, is high class at 12f, but has not raced beyond that. Idaho's half-sibling, Valdemoro, also hasn't run beyond 12f afaik.

I think the Idaho is too short a price. Usually the St Leger is won by a horse stepping up to the 14f 132y distance for the first time, but not always.

In 2015 Simple Verse won the 14f Lilly Langtry Stakes at Goodwood before winning the St Leger.
In 2013 Leading Light won the 16f Queen's vase at Ascot before winning.
In 2011 Masked Marvel won the 13f Bahrain trophy at Newmarket before winning.
In 2009 Mastery came 3rd (carrying 5 lb penalty) in the 16f Queen's vase before winning.

My bet this year is €200 on Sword Fighter at 15s (and an antepost €30 at 16/1).
I backed him in the Queen's Vase at good odds, and do not like to go to the same well twice, but I think he is value.

Other things that sway me against Idaho is he sweated a lot at Epsom, and was passed near the finish after leading 2f out. He didn't appear to stop.
In the Irish Derby Idaho ran a good race and was beaten narrowly.

Sword Fighter was 5th in his last race, the Goodwood Cup 16f. He lost a place on the line when his jockey accepted defeat close home.
The form of the (older) horses that beat him at Goodwood, Pallastor, Sheikhzayedroad, Wicklow Brave, is holding up with good win and place form since.
Sword Fighter has had a 44 day break since that Goodwood race and probably needed it.

Peintre Celebre

Sword Fighter is a tough and honest horse who will give his running. It may be a bit disappointing if he is good enough to win the Leger but it may well be the case. Idaho has a bit more class as his breeding would suggest too but yeah not exactly a great price (that said I'd rather 4/5 Idaho than a single figure Houseofparliament)

tryfix

A horrible Leger field. Idaho should stay no problem, he's a less flashy version of his brother Highland Reel a Gp2 winning 2yo who still needed 12f as a 3yo to show his best. Idaho looked like a thorough stayer in the Voltigeur and he's from a blue hen family who stayed well in Australia.

The rest of the field are nearly all very likeable types without the form to bother the favourite.

Gosden's horse Muntahaa has to be respected on the grounds that Gosden is a master at preparing a horse for the Leger. I can't muster any enthusiasm for the horse himself.

Sword Fighter is a bonny little horse, I thought he looked ill equipped to deal with the hurly burly of his last race and despite his decent showing there I think he lacks something.

The next best form horse to Idaho in the field is Housesofparliament, he's a proper stayer on pedigree who might have been outsped by Idaho the last day and is my idea of the horse best placed to profit if Idaho flops.

Thought Ventura Storm ran away from his field in France in the style of a fast improving stayer but the form was only so so. Ormito has a Cup horse stayers pedigree but his ability surely isn't up to this level.

Harbour Law and Harrison are similar types with nice form but don't look good enough to win here.

Lt Dan

Judging by the selection of jockeys for Ballydoyle and how front runners like Sword Fighter might get pipped (remember, a Canford Cliff horse,of all horses,Wall of Fire won two nice staying handicaps with a turn of foot), they are all out for Idaho to win considering his pretty solid season

Strange Colm is on HouseofParliament

Still fancy Sword Fighter

diomed

Interesting race.

diomed

I lost €230 on Sword Fighter to win.
During the afternoon I tried to place lay Idaho to not be in the first 5 but no takers.
A few minutes ago I was surprised to see someone gave me €230 for my €7.

Horse Racing > Donc 10th Sep : 5 TBP
Selection Odds Stake(€) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(€)
Idaho 1.03 230.00 Lay 10-Sep-16 12:46 230.00

Lay subtotal: 230.00
Commission @ 5%:11.50
Net Market Total: 218.50

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

I lost €230 on Sword Fighter to win.
During the afternoon I tried to place lay Idaho to not be in the first 5 but no takers.
A few minutes ago I was surprised to see someone gave me €230 for my €7.

Horse Racing > Donc 10th Sep : 5 TBP
Selection Odds Stake(€) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(€)
Idaho 1.03 230.00 Lay 10-Sep-16 12:46 230.00

Lay subtotal: 230.00
Commission @ 5%:11.50
Net Market Total: 218.50

Ile De Cyphre?

Harry Angstrom

tryfix wrote: »

Ile De Cyphre?

Stun gun could be plausible enough......

I said

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Stun gun could be plausible enough......

Christ ye are showing yer age with that one