Investment blog

JD Dublin

I want to start a list of shares that I am interested in investing and I am going to record the shares, the price and the rationale behind it all. Partly to keep me honest...

The first share I am interested in is a retail giant currently going through some rough times. They have recently exited an examinership process ( healthier than when they went in ) in relation to the rent on a handful of their stores. They jettisoned a CEO earlier this year and suffered a 19% in price in one day on the back of bad news.

Recently they appointed a new CEO and are going to announce 2016 results shortly. Also they pay dividends each year which on current prices would see you get back 5.3% of the share price each year excl tax and so forth. I think they are due a bounce. If they go above £0.80 I would sell them again.

The share is Debenhams, they are at (£)63.25 pence today and I am going to buy €10,000 worth for my imaginary portfolio.

daheff

JD Dublin wrote: »

The first share I am interested in is a retail giant currently going through some rough times. They have recently exited an examinership process

The share is Debenhams,

you are somewhat confused on this. Debenhams Retail Ireland Limited were in examinership...not Debenhams PLC UK (listed shares DEB:LN).


Below link would seem to indicate that the Examinership was all an act to end up with lower rents
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/debenhams-set-to-emerge-from-examinership-34915641.html


good luck with your blog though.

chompdown

Best of luck! You should let us know what your imaginary bank size is so that the 10,000 invested has some meaning...

JD Dublin

chompdown wrote: »

Best of luck! You should let us know what your imaginary bank size is so that the 10,000 invested has some meaning...

100,000

JD Dublin

daheff wrote: »

you are somewhat confused on this. Debenhams Retail Ireland Limited were in examinership...not Debenhams PLC UK (listed shares DEB:LN).


Below link would seem to indicate that the Examinership was all an act to end up with lower rents
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/debenhams-set-to-emerge-from-examinership-34915641.html


good luck with your blog though.

Yes the group accounts will benefit from lower rents on some ( a small few in the overall scheme ) of their retails outlets. That's what I meant. Thanks for the good wishes.

Francie Barrett

A trading blog/history is a great idea, I have my own private one and find it useful.

JD Dublin

Francie Barrett wrote: »

A trading blog/history is a great idea, I have my own private one and find it useful.

Yes I looked at some picks over the years - some good some bad. I cant remember the rationale now at this stage, and certainly have ''forgotten'' the losers

Francie Barrett

To track it properly, you should be writing down your expectations for the company in the current/next year. For example, Debenhams is 62.5p at the moment, you might think it will do 8p of earnings for this year, and 9p of earnings the next year. You might say your target for 2017 is 10 times the 9p earnings, giving you a target price of 90p. If Debenhams did 7p of earnings and went to 55p, you might decide to bite the bullet and take a loss as clearly something is wrong. If they did 9p of earnings, but the share price was only 65p, you might decide to hold on as it's still under valued. All too often, I see people changing their opinion on a stock because the price has went up or down, not based on earnings. If you keep your investment thesis written down, then it's much harder to fall into this trap.

topper_harley2

This sounds similar to these:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=97257579

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057624301

Similar to the above (one not updated since last November), my guess is you'll get sick of updating the blog, or else just lose interest (if it were me I know I'd be super enthusiastic initially then get sick of it!)

JD Dublin

Francie Barrett wrote: »

To track it properly, you should be writing down your expectations for the company in the current/next year. For example, Debenhams is 62.5p at the moment, you might think it will do 8p of earnings for this year, and 9p of earnings the next year. You might say your target for 2017 is 10 times the 9p earnings, giving you a target price of 90p. If Debenhams did 7p of earnings and went to 55p, you might decide to bite the bullet and take a loss as clearly something is wrong. If they did 9p of earnings, but the share price was only 65p, you might decide to hold on as it's still under valued. All too often, I see people changing their opinion on a stock because the price has went up or down, not based on earnings. If you keep your investment thesis written down, then it's much harder to fall into this trap.

Francie my basis for buying Debenhams is that they are undervalued, I expect them to go to 80p. I am prepared to wait for that to happen because I believe the company is moving in the right direction and it is only a matter of time for the rise to come. The earnings have dropped in the last few years although sales are consistently rising albeit slowly. Failure to control costs is what was killing the company, hopefully they are addressing that now.

JD Dublin

topper_harley2 wrote: »

This sounds similar to these:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=97257579

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057624301

Similar to the above (one not updated since last November), my guess is you'll get sick of updating the blog, or else just lose interest (if it were me I know I'd be super enthusiastic initially then get sick of it!)

Hi

What a ray of sunshine you are

Anyway I dont intend to update the blog too frequently, just when I trade. Mostly what I do is research companies, it's hard to find an edge as there is a huge amount of information available, and most is available to everyone for free.

Thankfully not everyone uses it, with most seemingly content to go with a very short term view of whats hot today, movers etc. to me its all about whether the company is a good business, and where the market undervalues a good company, an investor can exploit that.

Take green energy companies - sexy as hell for the average investor. But bear in mind that the price of electricity is going to go to zero over 5 - 10 years, only companies that can benefit in that environment are worth investing in. Then you look at the valuations of these green energy companies with price earnings ratios of 30+ - crazy stuff.