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Newbie question about lay odds

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  • 27-08-2016 1:24pm
    #1
    Fr Tod Umptious
    Registered Users Posts: 15,017 ✭✭✭✭


    I'm new to the betting exchange.
    I'm betting mostly on baseball games and trying to get a green book by hedging on the basis of "back high and lay low".

    But I'm just wondering why the lay odds get so high when a team is loosing, and continue to go higher as the game progresses.

    I had expected the lay odds to go lower as a team was losing as the chance of the .losing of greater.

    Is it because the lay bets cannot be matched by back bets.


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    #2
    Division
    Registered Users Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Division


    I'm not sure I understand the question.

    Take for example a betting market with 2 outcomes (no draw possibility).

    A wins
    B wins

    At the start of the game both teams are evenly matched - each has a 50% chance of winning - so the odds for each will be at evens.

    Halfway through the game A is winning and has a 75% chance of being the victor so their odds are 1/3
    B has a 25% chance of winning so their odds are 3/1

    The easier way to understand this is to use decimal odds

    Evens = 2.0
    3/1 = 4.0

    To Lay B:
    At the beginning you have to risk $100 to win $100 ... ($100 / (2.0 -1))
    Halfway through the game you have to risk $33.33 to win $100 ... ($100 / (4.0 -1))

    Divide the amount you want to profit by (decimal odds - 1) at the time of placing your bet to get the amount you have to risk to win this profit amount.

    The lower the chances of a team winning = the higher the odds = the less you have to risk to win $100

    Remember there will be a commission on your profit - a fee charged by betfair to use their service - its 5% for most people.


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    #3
    diomed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    My first advice to you is to keep very little money in your account because if you do not understand how the market works you can lose it all quickly.

    If a team is losing by a good margin midway through a game their odds might be: back 20, lay 22
    If you are laying you need to put up 22 to win 1. Everyone knows they are losing heavily.
    If it is in the last minutes and they are losing heavily the lay odds will shoot up to 1000 i.e you have to put out 1000 to win 1.

    You might be confusing the two teams. The team winning heavily with time running out will have sharply contracting odds, while the team losing heavily will have sharply rising odds.

    As I said at the start, if you make a mis-click mistake you can lose a lot.

    The 1000 price is a very dangerous territory in some sports. In horseracing commentators have called the wrong name of a faller, or a fallen horse has been remounted and won, or the "winner" has fallen at the last fence and brought down the other contenders.


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    #4
    jpboard1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,072 ✭✭✭jpboard1


    Can you still lay odds on Betfair? Ages since I was on there.


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    #5
    diomed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    jpboard1 wrote: »
    Can you still lay odds on Betfair? Ages since I was on there.
    Yes. You can back or lay. On almost all markets you can do both.

    The only times you can not (probably) is when the market is new, or when the result is obvious e.g. a soccer team winning 8-0 in the 90th minute.
    You might not be able to back or lay at the odds you require, or at the amounts you want.
    A simple strategy if you want to lay at 5s (4/1) and the market is bet 5.4, lay 5.6 is to put up a lay at 5.0. It will not be taken now as the market is 5.4/5.6 but as prices fluctuate it might be taken. Same for betting: put up a higher price than is currently offered, and you might get it.


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    #6
    Fr Tod Umptious
    Registered Users Posts: 15,017 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    diomed wrote: »
    Yes. You can back or lay. On almost all markets you can do both.

    The only times you can not (probably) is when the market is new, or when the result is obvious e.g. a soccer team winning 8-0 in the 90th minute.
    You might not be able to back or lay at the odds you require, or at the amounts you want.
    A simple strategy if you want to lay at 5s (4/1) and the market is bet 5.4, lay 5.6 is to put up a lay at 5.0. It will not be taken now as the market is 5.4/5.6 but as prices fluctuate it might be taken. Same for betting: put up a higher price than is currently offered, and you might get it.

    Would I be right is saying that that is easier to do in a busy market ?

    I have started betting on Bangladesh Premier League cricket games, where I back both teams and different odds and stakes and (if matched) guarantee a certain return.

    To date it has not failed (i.e both bets get matched pretty quickly) as these games generate approx €10,000,000 in matched bets.


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    #7
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    It's far easier to get your bet matched in a busy market yeah. Sounds like you only managed to guarantee profit because the market moved in your direction after the first bet? Were these games inplay?

    Tbh, i'd just stop the practice at this stage. There is no foolproof way for a newcomer to magically make easy money at this. You need to have an indepth knowledge of why,when,how markets move in a certain direction. The vast majority of the liquidity on the exchange is provided by a small number of huge hitting professionals who swallow up money from those that are inexperienced. In the case of cricket, this is even moreso the case. Huge sums of shady money come in from India mainly, with the pros channeling the moves if its recreational cash.

    The "back high, lay low" strategy simply wont work in the long run either. Indeed with favorite longshot bias (more prevalent with conventional bookies but still a factor on the exchanges), it's simply a path to losing a few quid long term


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    #8
    Fr Tod Umptious
    Registered Users Posts: 15,017 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    It's far easier to get your bet matched in a busy market yeah. Sounds like you only managed to guarantee profit because the market moved in your direction after the first bet? Were these games inplay?

    Tbh, i'd just stop the practice at this stage. There is no foolproof way for a newcomer to magically make easy money at this. You need to have an indepth knowledge of why,when,how markets move in a certain direction. The vast majority of the liquidity on the exchange is provided by a small number of huge hitting professionals who swallow up money from those that are inexperienced. In the case of cricket, this is even moreso the case. Huge sums of shady money come in from India mainly, with the pros channeling the moves if its recreational cash.

    The "back high, lay low" strategy simply wont work in the long run either. Indeed with favorite longshot bias (more prevalent with conventional bookies but still a factor on the exchanges), it's simply a path to losing a few quid long term


    The odds I looked to get matched were not too far off the odds offered at the time and the stakes were very small, as were the potential returns, so in a liquid market most got matched pretty quickly, but I agree it’s in no way a guaranteed system.

    Like everything it would take time and effort to learn how the markets work, and I also think you need a good bit of knowledge about the sport you are betting on to make the right decisions
    “Back high/lay low” is all well and good if the market allows you to do just that, but if it’s doesn’t you are frigged.


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