Juddmonte International 2016

tryfix

Postponed 13/8
Hawkbill 5/1
Highland Reel 11/2
The Grey Gatsby 9/1
Wings Of Desire 11/1
Mutakayyef 12/1
Dariyan 20/1
Almodovar 28/1
Exosphere 33/1
Sir Isaac Newton 33/1
Arab Spring 40/1
King Bolete 150/1

A very competitive renewal of the Juddmonte tomorrow with Postponed short enough in price for a horse who's unproven at the trip. He could be unbeatable but there are too many question re the price, the trip and his current wellbeing for my liking.

Hawkbill is my idea of the value in the race, his Eclpse win is underestimated IMO and it has been franked by The Gurkha's St James Palace win and by Time Test's subsequent win from Mondialiste who went on to win the Arlington Million last weekend. The ground is a potential stumbling block for him.

Highland Reel is another horse who's been a bit underestimated, he's well held by Postponed on early season form in Dubai but he wasn't fully wound up there and will love good ground, don't think the trip will a problem for him it's more a question of his being able to hit a high enough mark to beat the likes of Postponed and Hawkbill. Unless the "boys" show they expect a win off him and back him off the board he's likely to be finding one or two too good for him.

The Grey Gatsby is being bigged up for this based on his 2nd to Australia here a few years ago, he's far too short a price for what he's actually achieved this year and last.

It's hard to enthuse about the rest, there's a few nice unexposed types like Mutakayyef and Almodovar but they've a mountain to climb. Dariyan and Wings Of Desire should be suited by the trip but WOD hasn't shown anything near the class needed to win this and I reckon Dariyan at 20/1 is a better bet than WOD at 11/1. Can't see Exosphere turning around his recent poor form and although this trip should suit Sir Isaac Newton better than the 12f of The King George did he shouldn't be up to more than hoping for a place here.

Pinesky

Agree with you on postponed.most things in Highland Reel's favour. I wonder will the Lads go in ?

longshotvalue

As much as i hate Hype Horses, Exosphere isn't much behind all but the top 2-3 here and 40/1 is too big.

tryfix

aidankkk wrote: »

As much as i hate Hype Horses, Exosphere isn't much behind all but the top 2-3 here and 40/1 is too big.

I think Mutakayyef who reaced an OR of 118 last time out over 8f with plenty in hand is the most upwardly mobile horse in the field and the most likely prospect to give the front 3 in the betting some competition. Also Sir Isaac Newton could do well if he makes the running this time and keeps plugging on in front over this shorter trip like he has done in the past.

diomed

A small bet on Dariyan at 22s for me.

jimjamcos

Lads, am I missing something here?

I've never been a big Postponed fan and was against him throughout his career (felt he was lucky to win a woeful King George) but I think he's a hugely improved animal this year.

I know it has been said that Highland Reel was hardly fully primed in the Sheema but given it's a top group race and he was seen as an out-and-out globetrotter (having won the race with St Nic) beforehand I'd say he was fully ready that day, when Postponed had him easily beaten at all parts of the race. The King George he won too was actually the worst I can think of.

To my eye, Postponed it travelling through his races much better this year and I can see Atzeni kicking early today for a comfortable win. People are worried about the trip but he has definitely got the pace to match todays field and we know he'll outstay them.

7/4 will prove a gift imo.

Also throwing him in with Hugo Palmers 2yo Best Of Days (seriously impressive on debut) and Idaho (clear on form, getting 3lb from Across the Stars) for a nice, mug treble.

May even include the beast Limato for a week long acca.

posturingpat

I'm laying Postponed. Dont get the hype at all, he's a lovely animal but hasn't done enough for me to agree with the best horse in the world nonsense.
Plenty of question marks today, hasnt won over the trip, running in a bigger field than he has in years, has 3 or 4 horses at least as legitimate dangers as opposed to one or 2 in his Big wins recently and rumours of a virus in Newmarket. If Atzeni doesn't get a good possie early on in 3rd or fourth I'll start counting my I'll gotten gains.

akelly02

jimjamcos wrote: »

Lads, am I missing something here?

I've never been a big Postponed fan and was against him throughout his career (felt he was lucky to win a woeful King George) but I think he's a hugely improved animal this year.

I know it has been said that Highland Reel was hardly fully primed in the Sheema but given it's a top group race and he was seen as an out-and-out globetrotter (having won the race with St Nic) beforehand I'd say he was fully ready that day, when Postponed had him easily beaten at all parts of the race. The King George he won too was actually the worst I can think of.

To my eye, Postponed it travelling through his races much better this year and I can see Atzeni kicking early today for a comfortable win. People are worried about the trip but he has definitely got the pace to match todays field and we know he'll outstay them.

7/4 will prove a gift imo.

Also throwing him in with Hugo Palmers 2yo Best Of Days (seriously impressive on debut) and Idaho (clear on form, getting 3lb from Across the Stars) for a nice, mug treble.

May even include the beast Limato for a week long acca.

agree with your post but not backing in the 2 year old race as its all about potential with best of days

Limato my favourite horse but the drop to 5 is a worry considering he started out over a mile thisa year

mailburner

jimjamcos wrote: »

Lads, am I missing something here?

I've never been a big Postponed fan and was against him throughout his career (felt he was lucky to win a woeful King George) but I think he's a hugely improved animal this year.

I know it has been said that Highland Reel was hardly fully primed in the Sheema but given it's a top group race and he was seen as an out-and-out globetrotter (having won the race with St Nic) beforehand I'd say he was fully ready that day, when Postponed had him easily beaten at all parts of the race. The King George he won too was actually the worst I can think of.

To my eye, Postponed it travelling through his races much better this year and I can see Atzeni kicking early today for a comfortable win. People are worried about the trip but he has definitely got the pace to match todays field and we know he'll outstay them.

7/4 will prove a gift imo.

better horse this year, happy to take the 7/4

Lt Dan

tryfix wrote: »

Postponed 13/8
Hawkbill 5/1
Highland Reel 11/2
The Grey Gatsby 9/1
Wings Of Desire 11/1
Mutakayyef 12/1
Dariyan 20/1
Almodovar 28/1
Exosphere 33/1
Sir Isaac Newton 33/1
Arab Spring 40/1
King Bolete 150/1

A very competitive renewal of the Juddmonte tomorrow with Postponed short enough in price for a horse who's unproven at the trip. He could be unbeatable but there are too many question re the price, the trip and his current wellbeing for my liking.

Hawkbill is my idea of the value in the race, his Eclpse win is underestimated IMO and it has been franked by The Gurkha's St James Palace win and by Time Test's subsequent win from Mondialiste who went on to win the Arlington Million last weekend. The ground is a potential stumbling block for him.

Highland Reel is another horse who's been a bit underestimated, he's well held by Postponed on early season form in Dubai but he wasn't fully wound up there and will love good ground, don't think the trip will a problem for him it's more a question of his being able to hit a high enough mark to beat the likes of Postponed and Hawkbill. Unless the "boys" show they expect a win off him and back him off the board he's likely to be finding one or two too good for him.

The Grey Gatsby is being bigged up for this based on his 2nd to Australia here a few years ago, he's far too short a price for what he's actually achieved this year and last.

It's hard to enthuse about the rest, there's a few nice unexposed types like Mutakayyef and Almodovar but they've a mountain to climb. Dariyan and Wings Of Desire should be suited by the trip but WOD hasn't shown anything near the class needed to win this and I reckon Dariyan at 20/1 is a better bet than WOD at 11/1. Can't see Exosphere turning around his recent poor form and although this trip should suit Sir Isaac Newton better than the 12f of The King George did he shouldn't be up to more than hoping for a place here.

While Exosphere won't win, one must ignore Ascot run as that was on unsuitable ground. In hindsight, his run in the Princess of Wales was good, giving weight to both Big Orange and The Grey Gatsby

Lt Dan

mailburner wrote: »

better horse this year, happy to take the 7/4

Based on the way he ran at Epsom, 10 f will be no problem.

Worried about O'Brien horses without Moore

Fancy Wings of Desire to be there

HarshOstrich

It will be comfortable for postponed today

Lt Dan

Watching Channel 4, AP's wife has sent AP to the dentist lately . Over did it a bit

posturingpat

HarshOstrich wrote: »

It will be comfortable for postponed today

I hope you're wrong. My York will be over before it begins.

Lt Dan

Channel 4 doing a small clip on Paul Carberry. WFT has he got to do with FLAT racing and the Ebor festival? They can't do anything right

nuckeythompson

Lt Dan wrote:

Channel 4 doing a small clip on Paul Carberry. WFT has he got to do with FLAT racing and the Ebor festival? They can't do anything right

Good piece, they did it because it's of interest in their audience.

Lt Dan

Well run race. Some horse Postponed!

Johner

Some people will still doubt Postponed. Brilliant horse.

posturingpat

Still can't warm to him at all. Taking me for a Monkey on betfair won't help that matter either.

Pinesky

Lt Dan wrote: »

Well run race. Some horse Postponed!

Surprised there's no stewards' inquiry. Winner deprived 3rd of 2nd place at a minimum.

posturingpat

Pinesky wrote: »

Surprised there's no stewards' inquiry. Winner deprived 3rd of 2nd place at a minimum.

Felt at the time he could've actually come and won it but watching it back I dont think so.

Lt Dan

nuckeythompson wrote: »

Good piece, they did it because it's of interest in their audience.

Yes, it was a grand piece, and there is meant to be more to come from that interview, but, this is the flat season.:D We hear the National Hunt folk complaining if Flat is uttered during their season :P

nuckeythompson

Lt Dan wrote:

Yes, it was a grand piece, and there is meant to be more to come from that interview, but, this is the flat season. We hear the National Hunt folk complaining if Flat is uttered during their season

Timing is everything, it's the best platform for this.

nuckeythompson

Lt Dan wrote:

Yes, it was a grand piece, and there is meant to be more to come from that interview, but, this is the flat season. We hear the National Hunt folk complaining if Flat is uttered during their season

Do you have a problem with AP giving analysis?

Lt Dan

nuckeythompson wrote: »

Do you have a problem with AP giving analysis?

Actually, he is pretty decent! I was going to say way better than Mick (and did lol) but that would not be hard.

@14-1

Life Less Ordinary ew @14-1 for me in 4:20

posturingpat

Try and get my losses back with eshtiaal

tryfix

Johner wrote: »

Some people will still doubt Postponed. Brilliant horse.

There's still some doubt as to how "brilliant" he is. For a horse that blew away the opposition early season and still only had an OR of 124 going into today's race a 1 1/2l beating of the 121 rated Highland Reel ( who people crabbed over his King George win ) was just another 124 run.

That form today was well short of what it takes to win the Arc, or was it?


The two 3yos disgraced themselves today, but their runs were too bad to be true on past form. Highland Reel is improving but probably needs 12f to be at his best, can't make my mind up about whether Postponed was inconvenienced by the trip today or not compared to what he could do at 12f.

Lt Dan

Postponed owner is slightly bit of a tool. Not the type to listen to experts or take no for an answer. Military man apparently.

Sadly he was right to take the horse away from Luca

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=19355224&category=0