Gameweek Odds Thread - FPL 2016/2017

Paully D

They say that bookies are rarely wrong, so who better than to get weekly indications from in terms of clean sheet and goalscorer chances for our FPL selections? I always find it extremely helpful when stuck between what defenders to play, or even for captaincy choices, to have a peek at the odds for reassurance or to put the question in my mind. Please also feel free to use this thread to pose questions, any nice insights in terms of odds which may help our selections etc.

Now I know we had this thread last year and it was a cracking resource, but admittedly I let it slip away in terms of updating it after 7 or 8 GW's and it was updated sporadically after that (thanks to those who did so and kept it going). To be honest it can be quite a bit of a slog to compile each week, so I was going to propose that we get a rota of posters on the go if people see the value in having the thread updated every gameweek as I couldn't commit to doing it every week if I am being realistic. The more the merrier obviously, but even if only say 6 posters could commit we'd only have to do around 6 GW's each, obviously 1 update each every 6 GW's? The only rule is that the odds must come from the best price available via Oddschecker (which is always highlighted in bold on their site) as this gives a much clearer picture (e.g. from memory De Bruyne was 4/5 with one bookie to score in a game last season but was 2/1 with another, this is common practice every week in some form) but other than that you're free to format any way you'd like and include any sort of relevant odds as long as clean sheet and anytime goalscorer odds are included. PM me if you'd like to chip in.

Anyway, lets get this started. GW1 odds below. Please note the below contains only popular FPL players and those likely to feature (e.g. no point in including Bony who is 1/1 or Will Keane who is 13/5 when no one has either in their team):

Hull v Leicester
CS: 29/10 v 7/5
AGS: Vardy 9/5, Musa 23/10, Mahrez 12/5

Palace v West Brom
CS: 5/4 v 11/4
AGS: Wickham 19/10, Rondon 3/1, Berahino 17/5, Townsend 7/2

Burnley v Swansea
CS: 15/8 v 11/4
AGS: Gray 9/4, Llorente 28/11, Sigurdsson 3/1

Everton v Tottenham
CS: 21/10 v 5/2
AGS: Kane 17/10, Lukaku 15/8, Alli 31/10, Chadli/Miralles/Lamela/Barkley/Deulofu 7/2

Southampton v Watford
CS: 39/29 v 18/5
AGS: Long 13/8, Austin 7/4, Tadic 12/5, Igahlo 13/5, Deeney 14/5, Redmond 3/1

Middlesbrough v Stoke
CS: 6/4 v 12/5
AGS: Negredo 28/13, Rhodes 12/5, Arnautovic 10/3, Bojan 17/5

Man City v Sunderland
CS: 5/6 v 11/1
AGS: Aguero 6/10, De Bruyne 7/4, Silva 2/1, Sterling and Yaya 11/4

Bournemouth v Man United
CS: 17/5 v 13/10
AGS: Ibrahimovic 13/10, Rashford 15/8, Rooney 19/10, Martial 12/5, Mkhitaryan 11/4, Wilson 14/5

Arsenal v Liverpool
CS: 9/4 v 56/19
AGS: Giroud 9/5, Sanchez 2/1, Walcott 5/2, Mane 14/5, Firmino 10/3, Coutinho 7/2

Chelsea v West Ham
CS: 13/10 v 24/5
AGS: Costa 7/5, Batshuayi 7/4, Hazard 19/10, Oscar/Willian 11/4, Payet 4/1

Notes:

- Man City are the only team odds on to keep a clean sheet this GW. Crystal Palace, Man United, Southampton and Middlesbrough are the next best, in that order.

- Aside from big hitters Aguero, Ibrahimovic and Costa, out of realistic starters Shane Long is the player the bookies think has the next best chance of scoring in GW1.

Scorpion Sting

Good stuff Paully. Some bookies do assist odds as well. I think Boylesports do them but I may be wrong.

ElTel

So who will keep a clean sheet according to PP goes.....


4/5 MUN
1/1 TOT
11/10 LIV SWA
6/5 CHE
13/10 MCI
6/4 WHM
7/4 SUN
9/5 EVE
21/10 MID
9/4 WBA
23/10 ARS
3/1 LEI
16/5 HUL
7/2 WAT
4/1 STO BOU
9/2 BUR
5/1 SOT
11/2 CPL

km79

ElTel wrote: »

So who will keep a clean sheet according to PP goes.....


4/5 MUN
1/1 TOT
11/10 LIV SWA
6/5 CHE
13/10 MCI
6/4 WHM
7/4 SUN
9/5 EVE
21/10 MID
9/4 WBA
23/10 ARS
3/1 LEI
16/5 HUL
7/2 WAT
4/1 STO ROU
9/2 BUR
5/1 SOT
11/2 CPL

according to that my defensive order should be
Valencia amat kone (friend Fuchs )
nor comfortable benching Fuchs as he gets forward so. much
I'd nearly be as happy if amat missed out now

ElTel

km79 wrote: »

according to that my defensive order should be
Valencia amat kone (friend Fuchs )
nor comfortable benching Fuchs as he gets forward so. much
I'd nearly be as happy if amat missed out now

Friend will be the dilemma for many too.

km79

ElTel wrote: »

Friend will be the dilemma for many too.

that game could be nil all
I'm considering playing 4 3 3!

mectavba

Interesting for those of us weighing up whether to captain Aguero or Ibra....Stoke 4/1 to keep a clean sheet, Soton 5/1. Memories of how poor City were away from home is making me reluctant on Kun...unreasonable under Pep??

SantryRed

mectavba wrote: »

Interesting for those of us weighing up whether to captain Aguero or Ibra....Stoke 4/1 to keep a clean sheet, Soton 5/1. Memories of how poor City were away from home is making me reluctant on Kun...unreasonable under Pep??

The 5-0 tonking in Bucharest has made me leave it on him. We'll know by 2:30 Saturday anyways! Not as much early kick off fear as United and Ibra will have played the night before.

ElTel

So who will keep a clean sheet in GW3 according to PP goes.....

8/11 CHE
10/11 MCU
1/1 SOU
11/10 MCY LEI
6/5 EVE
13/8 WBA CPL
7/5 ARS
15/8 MID
9/4 BOU
12/5 TOT
3/1 LIV
7/2 STO SWA
4/1 SUN WAT
5/1 HUL
8/1 BUR
10/1 WHU

Delboy5

Any odds for this gameweek?

F1ngers

http://www.paddypower.com/football/football-matches/premier-league?ev_oc_grp_ids=9551

mectavba

I'd be interested in seeing the clean sheet odds if anyone could post them for those of us who can't access PP in work.

Dont be at yourself

Bournemouth 6/5
Arsenal 5/4
Chelsea 13/10
Middlesboro 11/8
Tottenham 7/5
West Ham 7/5
Liverpool 7/5
Burnley 6/4
Everton 13/8
Man Utd 7/4
Hull 21/10
Crystal Palace 11/5
Man City 5/2
West Brom 13/5
Sunderland 3/1
Stoke 7/2
Watford 7/2
Swansea 9/2
Southampton 5/1
Leicester 5/1

manual_man

this says Jaku is marginal favorite over Foster to keep a c/s. hmmm

Dearg81

This is a good site for odds which does all the hard work for you :
https://www.fantasybet.com/blog/bookies-advantage-gameweek-4/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=gw4

ElTel

GW8 Clean Sheet odds according to PP goes.....

5/6 SOU
1/1 ARS
6/5 TOT
13/10 BOU
13/8 MID STO
7/5 CHE
6/4 MCY
2/1 CPL
11/5 LIV
13/5 WAT
16/5 SUN
10/3 WHU
7/2 MUN WBA HUL
11/2 LEI
6/1 BUR
15/2 EVE
10/1 SWA

km79

ElTel wrote: »

GW8 Clean Sheet odds according to PP goes.....

5/6 SOU
1/1 ARS
6/5 TOT
13/10 BOU
13/8 MID STO
7/5 CHE
6/4 MCY
2/1 CPL
11/5 LIV
13/5 WAT
16/5 SUN
10/3 WHU
7/2 MUN WBA HUL
11/2 LEI
6/1 BUR
15/2 EVE
10/1 SWA

My chances of ANY clean sheet are LOW

Scorpion Sting

GW11 Clean Sheet Odds (Source: Paddy Power)

Man City||8/11
Liverpool||10/11
Southampton||11/10
Bournemouth||5/4
Chelsea||13/10
Leicester||13/10
Man United||7/5
Crystal Palace||7/4
Arsenal||21/10
West Ham||21/10
Burnley||12/5
Stoke||10/3
West Brom||7/2
Hull||4/1
Tottenham||4/1
Sunderland||9/2
Swansea||11/2
Everton||6/1
Watford||9/1
Middlesbrough||10/1


Popular FPL Players Anytime Goalscorer Odds (Source: Paddy Power)

Agüero||4/9
Costa||4/7
Rashford||4/6
Ibrahimović||8/11
Austin||4/5
De Bruyne||10/11
Firmino||10/11
Mané||10/11
Sánchez||11/10
Walcott||11/10
Vardy||11/10
Coutinho||6/5
C. Benteke||6/5
C. Wilson||5/4
Mahrez||11/8
Hazard||6/4
Pogba||17/10
Payet||9/5
Defoe||9/5
Sterling||15/8
Lallana||15/8
Redmond||15/8
Lukaku||11/5
Antonio||11/5
Son||12/5
Özil||5/2
Gündoğan||13/5
Alli||11/4
Chadli||16/5
Deeney||10/3
Sigurdsson||7/2
Allen||7/2
Bolasie||4/1
Negredo||4/1
Fer||9/2
Capoue ||13/2

Jaggo

Wow - this surprises me:
Chadli 16/5
Away to Leicester.

Essentially Paddypower are estimating that Chadli has a probability of scoring in a difficult away match, to a reasonable defense, once every 4.25 matches.

Assuming that probability increases with weaker opposition and home games. Paddypowers models are estimating that Chadli will score a fair bit north of 10 goals in a season. That would be a excellent return for a 4th midfield.

Scorpion Sting

Jaggo wrote: »

Wow - this surprises me:
Chadli 16/5
Away to Leicester.

Essentially Paddypower are estimating that Chadli has a probability of scoring in a difficult away match, to a reasonable defense, once every 4.25 matches.

Assuming that probability increases with weaker opposition and home games. Paddypowers models are estimating that Chadli will score a fair bit north of 10 goals in a season. That would be a excellent return for a 4th midfield.

I assume they're taking into account the fact Leicester have to travel back from Denmark and may suffer from the so-called "European Hangover".

Jaggo

Scorpion Sting wrote: »

I assume they're taking into account the fact Leicester have to travel back from Denmark and may suffer from the so-called "European Hangover".

Yeah, you could be right, and I forgot to add in the Paddypower profit margin. They are saying the probability is 4.75 (giving a 17% margin).

It would be interesting to see the odds on easier matches. Chadli's odds should reflect the actual likelyhood of him scoring. Other more popular players have their odd distorted by the amount of supporters betting on them.

Think Chadli is on penos too.

Scorpion Sting

GW12 Clean Sheet Odds (Source: Paddy Power)

Chelsea||Evens
Tottenham||6/5
West Brom||6/5
Everton||7/5
Man City||7/5
Sunderland||8/5
Stoke||2/1
Liverpool||21/10
Man United||11/5
Leicester||9/4
Watford||23/10
Arsenal||5/2
Burnley||11/4
Hull||11/4
Bournemouth||3/1
Southampton||16/5
Middlesbrough||5/1
Swansea||11/2
West Ham||6/1
Crystal Palace||13/2

Popular FPL Players Anytime Goalscorer Odds (Source: Paddy Power)

Agüero||8/15
Costa||8/11
Lukaku||8/11
Kane||5/6
Austin||Evens
Defoe||6/5
Coutinho||7/5
De Bruyne||7/5
Hazard||6/4
Pedro||17/10
Rashford||17/10
C. Benteke||7/4
Deeney||7/4
Firmino||9/5
Mané||9/5
Bolasie||15/8
Sánchez||15/8
Walcott||15/8
Sterling||21/10
Gündogan||23/10
Snodgrass||12/5
Allen||5/2
Vokes||11/4
Redmond||3/1
Payet||16/5
Sigurdsson||16/5
Özil||4/1

Scorpion Sting

GW13 Clean Sheet Odds (Source: Paddy Power)

Liverpool||10/11
Man City||11/10
Man United||6/5
Arsenal||5/4
Leicester||11/8
Chelsea||6/4
Southampton||13/8
West Brom||17/10
Watford||15/8
Hull||11/5
Swansea||12/5
Crystal Palace||5/2
Stoke||13/5
Everton||11/4
Middlesbrough||10/3
Tottenham||9/2
West Ham||6/1
Bournemouth||8/1
Burnley||9/1
Sunderland||14/1

Popular FPL Players Anytime Goalscorer Odds (Source: Paddy Power)

Agüero||4/11
Ibrahimović||4/6
Coutinho||8/11
Firmino||8/11
Mané||8/11
Sánchez||8/11
Walcott||8/11
Costa||4/5
Austin||Evens
C. Benteke||Evens
De Bruyne||6/5
Hazard||6/5
Deeney||6/4
Lukaku||6/4
Rondón||13/8
Sigurdsson||13/8
Kane||15/8
Özil||15/8
Sterling||15/8
Pedro||21/10
Redmond||11/5
Snodgrass||23/10
Defoe||11/4
Bolasie||4/1

Scorpion Sting

Bit late with it this week, sorry.

GW14 Clean Sheet Odds (Source: Paddy Power)

Middlesbrough||11/10
Tottenham||11/10
Stoke||6/5
West Brom||6/4
Man United||13/8
Arsenal||7/4
Liverpool||9/5
Southampton||9/5
Leicester||2/1
Man City||11/5
Watford||5/2
Crystal Palace||11/4
Everton||3/1
Sunderland||3/1
Hull||16/5
Chelsea||7/2
Bournemouth||5/1
Burnley||5/1
West Ham||5/1
Swansea||17/2

Popular FPL Players Anytime Goalscorer Odds (Source: Paddy Power)

Kane||8/13
Agüero||5/6
Austin||10/11
Sánchez||10/11
Walcott||10/11
Negredo||Evens
Firmino||11/10
Ibrahimović||11/10
Mané||11/10
Defoe||5/4
Costa||13/10
Eriksen||7/5
Lukaku||6/4
C. Benteke||7/4
Hazard||15/8
Allen||2/1
Redmond||21/10
Özil||11/5
De Bruyne||23/10
Milner||11/4
Phillips||3/1
Pedro||16/5
Snodgrass||7/2
Fer||4/1
Sigurdsson||4/1
Capoue||9/2
Zaha||5/1

manual_man

Joe "the Welsh Pirlo" Allen 2/1 to score anytime:cool: Bring it home Joe I'm on AOA!

Scorpion Sting

GW16 Clean Sheet Odds (Source: Paddy Power)

Tottenham||4/5
Chelsea||Evens
Man City||11/10
Liverpool||13/10
West Ham||13/10
Man United||11/8
West Brom||6/4
Arsenal||7/4
Southampton||9/5
Stoke||23/10
Bournemouth||12/5
Leicester||3/1
Swansea||16/5
Everton||4/1
Burnley||9/2
Crystal Palace||9/2
Middlesbrough||5/1
Sunderland||17/2
Hull||10/1
Watford||12/1


Popular FPL Players Anytime Goalscorer Odds (Source: Paddy Power)

Iheanacho||2/5
Costa||8/15
Kane||8/15
Sánchez||8/11
Ibrahimović||5/6
Son||10/11
Walcott||Evens
De Bruyne||11/10
Hazard||11/10
Antonio||5/4
Eriksen||5/4
Alli||7/5
Firmino||7/5
Mané||7/5
Origi||7/5
Lukaku||6/4
Vardy||7/4
Payet||9/5
C. Benteke||2/1
Llorente||21/10
Defoe||23/10
Lallana||5/2
Özil||5/2
Phillips||11/4
Sigurdsson||16/5
Allen||7/2
Snodgrass||5/1
Zaha||11/2
Capoue||6/1

manual_man

My 3 strikers the shortest odds to score - nice. Pep take notice - 'Nacho needs to start :pac::pac:

Scorpion Sting

manual_man wrote: »

My 3 strikers the shortest odds to score - nice. Pep take notice - 'Nacho needs to start :pac::pac:

Same ... although I think he'll go with Nolito as a false nine.

Father Hernandez

manual_man wrote: »

My 3 strikers the shortest odds to score - nice. Pep take notice - 'Nacho needs to start :pac::pac:

Scorpion Sting wrote: »

Same ... although I think he'll go with Nolito as a false nine.

C'mon Pep, give us Nacho!!

Scorpion Sting

Only have time for clean sheets this gameweek as I'm heading out for the night in a few minutes.


GW17 Clean Sheet Odds (Source: Paddy Power)

Tottenham||4/5
Man United||11/10
West Ham||13/10
Chelsea||7/5
Middlesbrough||8/5
Liverpool||7/4
Southampton||15/8
Sunderland||2/1
Stoke||21/10
Bournemouth||11/5
Leicester||23/10
Watford||23/10
Man City||12/5
Swansea||11/4
West Brom||7/2
Arsenal||4/1
Everton||4/1
Hull||9/2
Crystal Palace||6/1
Burnley||11/1