A Look Ahead : Predictions for Autumn 2016

sryanbruen

Well, it's officially Autumn jk lol.

It is an autumnal week ahead though in spite of some humid conditions at times. So here are my Autumn 2016 predictions I made last December:

September: Very warm, dull and wet. Warmest September since 2006.
October: Mainly dry, sunny and rather average temperatures but at this stage, looking a little cool. Pretty much a repeat of last October.
November: Variable rainfall but mostly wet, sunny and cold. Coldest November in 6 years.

In depth of warmth or coldness, I'd say

September: +1.0 to +2.5c above normal
October: -0.5c below normal to +0.5c above normal
November: -1.0c to -0.2c below normal

This upcoming La Nina was predicted to be a strong one. Here's a previous Autumn with its conditions before the strong La Nina occurred.

1988/89 La Nina

September: Rather wet, cool and dull. I am saying that this September will be warmer than normal despite this because of how cold September 2015 was.

October: Very wet, sunny and cool. My rainfall for October could be of a subject to change as time goes on.

November: Very dry, sunny and cool. Like October, my rainfall prediction could change as time goes on.

sryanbruen

http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/uk-autumn-weather-forecast-2016/

General summary from this link shows

September - An average month with a mix of warm, settled spells and cool, wet and windy spells. However, wet and windy spells will be quite frequent.

October - Unsettled, typical wet and windy October that we have seen a lot of in recent years. Some charts suggest what I have predicted though.

November - Dry and cold with high pressure dominating.

So another Autumn like 2013 then?

I would love if this Autumn (with my October prediction) would be like this, would you?

waterways

sryanbruen wrote: »

September - An average month with a mix of warm, settled spells and cool, wet and windy spells.

Just for the records, who is the forecaster?

sryanbruen

waterways wrote: »

Just for the records, who is the forecaster?

The charts AND myself as I have put a touch of my own on the predictions that were originally set by what the charts are saying.

sryanbruen

Well the charts are hinting at a good back to school week with a good number of warm days and with warm days in September, I expect them to be quite sunny.

September is actually looking sunnier than normal at this point right now in contrast to me predicting it would be dull, I wonder who will be right? Probably not me.

M.T. Cranium

I suspect all three months of autumn will run 1-2 deg above normal and rainfall may be heavy or even excessive at times with the potential for strong windstorms by late October and November. If there is any cold air to be had this coming winter, it will probably wait for the second half of the season or even into March.

There will be a few nice spells too and they could last up to a week in one or two cases at least for southeast counties which might also not be as wet or as windy in general terms; for Britain I am predicting a similar outcome for Scotland and Wales, northern England but more frequent blocking high pressure spells for southern England which may make the rainfall there closer to normal.

It just looks to me as though west-central Europe and the east coast of North America will be favoured locations for upper ridges with a trough mid-Atlantic, strong zonal flow and not much if any high latitude blocking to disrupt a mild pattern.

OldRio

It will rain a lot. Esp in the West.

waterways

I'm wondering if you assume a positive phase of the NAO in autumn and winter?

sryanbruen

waterways wrote: »

I'm wondering if you assume a positive phase of the NAO in autumn and winter?

That's what MT is saying, I'm saying a negative phase of the NAO in November.

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I suspect all three months of autumn will run 1-2 deg above normal and rainfall may be heavy or even excessive at times with the potential for strong windstorms by late October and November. If there is any cold air to be had this coming winter, it will probably wait for the second half of the season or even into March.

There will be a few nice spells too and they could last up to a week in one or two cases at least for southeast counties which might also not be as wet or as windy in general terms; for Britain I am predicting a similar outcome for Scotland and Wales, northern England but more frequent blocking high pressure spells for southern England which may make the rainfall there closer to normal.

It just looks to me as though west-central Europe and the east coast of North America will be favoured locations for upper ridges with a trough mid-Atlantic, strong zonal flow and not much if any high latitude blocking to disrupt a mild pattern.

What makes you think we'll have a wet and windy November for the third consecutive year? Like for the cold November I predicted, I used the factors I mentioned above to help me hint at this.

In 2010 when we last had all these factors, September was a warm month and I'm expecting it to be warm this year, not only because of the factors but given how cold September 2015 was and lately, a cold September hasn't been really followed by another one. September 2012 - a very cool September overall was followed by a rather mild September 2013. And September 2008 - a fairly average but lack of high maximums month was followed by another quite similar September but not particularly cool by any means. Last cool September before this was way back in 2000 which was followed in 2001 by a rather mild September yet minimums were below average. So this is why I am saying that September 2016 will be warmer than normal.

October in 2010 meanwhile was very dry for the most part with plenty of sunshine and some warm days yet cold nights. I was expecting October 2016 to be drier than normal even though October 2015 was very dry itself and I don't think Mother Nature would allow two very dry Octobers in a row, then again, October 1992 & 1993 were both quite dry yet very cold. October 2010 was cool overall in places and I am predicting this October to be a little cool and we deserve it anyways. The last colder than normal October across the whole country was back in 2012 and we have had some very mild Octobers recently (2011, 2013 and 2014). At the same time, we deserve another dry October given how unsettled those very mild Octobers were.

November in 2010, do I even need to say? :rolleyes: It was a very sunny and cold month overall, the coldest November on record in a few localised locations but mostly the coldest November since 1985 thanks to a rather mild start. We are due a cold November given how warm November 2015 was and November 2014 was also quite mild yet nothing remarkable. November 2013 was the last cold November but we haven't had a cold November like in extreme warmth since 2010 and before 2010, the last November with some extreme cold at some stage in the month was only 2 years before in 2008. If the NAO continues to be negative as it has been up and down recently but mostly negative, November will be colder than normal. Also given how dull last November was, we're due a sunny one.

Have I made myself clear?

Rougies

sryanbruen wrote: »

We are due a cold November given how warm November 2015 was and November 2014 was also quite mild yet nothing remarkable.

It seems like you're falling into the trap of the "Gambler's fallacy" with your prediction logic at times.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

sryanbruen

Rougies wrote: »

"We are due a cold November given how warm November 2015 was and November 2014 was also quite mild yet nothing remarkable."

It seems like you're falling into the trap of the "Gambler's fallacy" with your prediction logic at times.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

We haven't had a long period (3 consecutive months) of warmer than normal Novembers since the period 2001-2004.

JCX BXC

Well August looks like it won't preform, how about a summery September?

Gonzo

September: warm to begin with, some wet spells/unsettled toward end
October: mild and wet/windy
November: mild, wet, windy.

Billcarson

I reckon November will be the most above average autumn month for temps. Another turgid,bland ,mild ,depressing Nov to look forward to. All the seasonal models are going for a warmer then average autumn. It's just the same rubbish with our Autumn's these days.,downright depressing. Autumn R.I.P

sryanbruen

So I am the only one being optimistic here? UGHHHH and my teacher keeps telling me to think positive and everyone here thinks negative, it's absolutely great what school teaches you (NOT).

sryanbruen

And it comes to no surprise that Accuweather is saying that it will be a stormy Autumn, of course but I never believe any of their forecasts.

sryanbruen

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

They suggest

September - Average temperatures with mainly wet conditions.
October - Rather dry in places whilst wet in others and average temperatures.
November - Dry and mild.

sryanbruen

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2016-united-kingdom-autumn-forecast-wet-windy-pattern-for-british-isles/59555282

I love how they say the "COOL" and wet Summer, it certainly hasn't been cool.

Billcarson

sryanbruen wrote: »

So I am the only one being optimistic here? UGHHHH and my teacher keeps telling me to think positive and everyone here thinks negative, it's absolutely great what school teaches you (NOT).

Being optimistic when it comes to the weather still won't get the weather one desires though, will it?

sryanbruen

Billcarson wrote: »

Being optimistic when it comes to the weather still won't get the weather one desires though, will it?

I never said it would.

Pat Dunne

Billcarson wrote: »

Being optimistic when it comes to the weather still won't get the weather one desires though, will it?

Been optimistic is good, as reality is never too far away from biting you on the backside

Iancar29

GFS brings EX tropical storm Fiona in our direction next week. Doesn't look that stormy though currently.

sryanbruen

Iancar29 wrote: »

GFS brings EX tropical storm Fiona in our direction next week. Doesn't look that stormy though currently.

Looks similar to ex hurricane Katia in 2011 and that wasn't a huge problem in Ireland as it was in Scotland.

Iancar29

Don't worry ... im keeping my excitement for Hurricane IAN that'll be just around the corner

sryanbruen

So an update on my predictions here for this Autumn.

I feel that September will be a very warm month overall with many warm days and temperatures of over 20c will not be as infrequent as they have been in recent years. It is looking quite likely at the start of the month, not sure, thereafter, but it is looking like a warmer than normal September this year. There are many patterns in the past with the factors I've stated which show that September will be like this. It is also looking largely unsettled, however, as is the case in most warm Septembers nowadays (except 2013 and 2014). At the beginning of the month, Hurricane Gaston looks like hitting Ireland according to the models BUT I have a feeling that it will not and just bring a few gusts of wind along the western coastlines, very hit and miss. Apart from this, the beginning of September is not looking too bad actually but mid-month on is not looking good at this stage at all. I originally had thought that September would be a duller than normal month but with every Summer month dull and how we have not had a very sunny September in every part of the country for a long while and how the beginning of the month is looking good, September could well be sunnier than normal. So with a warm, wet and sunny nature, September is looking quite similar to how it did in 2006 which was the warmest September on record.

October is confusing me a lot actually. Unlike September which we all seem quite confident in, October has quite a lot of variation among the models. I am sticking to my prediction though which I predicted back in December. I am expecting October to be dry, maybe not as dry as 2015, but quite dry for much of the month. However, there could well be some very wet days which could make the month wet overall in places. The month is also looking mild, quite unremarkably so, much like 2015 or perhaps even slightly colder than normal in places. We are overdue a cold October despite my prediction though because we haven't had one since 2012. The month is expected to be sunny as with all the Autumn 2016 months by this stage. It will be a very sunny month (hopefully) in comparison with many recent dull Octobers. But October is quite tricky to pinpoint at this stage with all the variation between the models and forecasters.

November is also kind of confusing but more of a controversial one. I am expecting a colder than normal November given how warm last November was. And in most recent warm Novembers, the succeeding one was colder than normal. See recent very warm Novembers

1983: 1984 was colder than normal
1994: 1995 was warmer than normal
2001: 2002 was warmer than normal
2007: 2008 was colder than normal
2011: 2012 was colder than normal

So see why I am expecting it to be cold without the mention of how 1983 had a very strong El Nino and then 1984 the next year after it weakened, November was colder than normal. Many models and forecasters are hinting at a warm November though in spite of how warm last year's one was. I am not by any means hinting at any snow though because I don't think there will be any snowfall, just a cold November. I am expecting it to be a very dry November and will be the driest since 1988 with many stations not even recording like half their average rainfall. It will come as a shock to the system given how many wet Novembers there have been in recent times. I am not expecting it to be a very sunny month but quite a pleasantly sunny month with those cool, sunny and dry days and those mild, wet and dull days. It will certainly not be as dull as November 2015 which was the dullest on record in the UK but it is not looking as sunny as November 2010 either.

Given all these predictions, Autumn would be mild, dry and sunny - ha I wish.

sryanbruen

Long range models say an Indian Summer will happen in early October.

waterways

sryanbruen wrote: »

Long range models say an Indian Summer will happen in early October.

Source please. Thanks.

waterways

sryanbruen wrote: »

That's what MT is saying, I'm saying a negative phase of the NAO in November.

I don't think that M.T.'s forecast is assuming a positive NAO for autumn but I could be wrong.

sryanbruen

waterways wrote: »

I don't think that M.T.'s forecast is assuming a positive NAO for autumn but I could be wrong.

Yes you are wrong, he is going for a warm Autumn, very mild as a matter of fact and largely unsettled, this can only be done by a positive NAO.

sryanbruen

waterways wrote: »

Source please. Thanks.

Gavsweathervids

sryanbruen

So the first week of Autumn is looking very changeable at this stage with a rather west-east split.

sryanbruen

Carnacalla wrote: »

Autumn now, so is this now the autumn thread?

10.7c here in West Clare in a fairly cloudy sky.

Yes, I originally called it Autumn Weather 2016 but the mods thought it was too early for general Autumn chat and it is for this reason why your thread was deleted and your post was moved to here.

JCX BXC

sryanbruen wrote: »

Yes, I originally called it Autumn Weather 2016 but the mods thought it was too early for general Autumn chat and it is for this reason why your thread was deleted and your post was moved to here.

I'm aware, Lumi kindly kept me up date

Anyway, when's our first storm due?

sryanbruen

Carnacalla wrote: »

I'm aware, Lumi kindly kept me up date

Anyway, when's our first storm due?

Saturday :pac::pac::P.

Lumi

Mod note
New Autumn General Discussion thread this way ==> http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057642116
We'll leave this one open for comments on the forecasts above ss the season progresses
Thanks

martinsvi

anyone willing to take a guess on what the October is going to be like? I'm particularly interested in calm days with little clouds, any chances of those happening? Don't care too much about the temps