Brexit and property in Dublin

Piriz

I sale agreed on a house in Dublin yesterday, hope to go variable rate mortgage, 50% LTV.
With Brexit today i wonder that people might forecast for my situation and others in similar (hoping to buy etc).

Thanks

Michael D Not Higgins

What kind of forecast are you looking for? Brexit will have little impact to the Irish property market in the short term, unless you have your deposit in GBP.

If there's more investment in Dublin as some expect then it'll be pretty ****ed until we start building a lot more and a bit higher.

Michael D Not Higgins

Deleted User wrote: »

If there's more investment in Dublin as some expect then it'll be pretty ****ed until we start building a lot more and a bit higher.

That's a long term thing. Britain aren't leaving the EU tomorrow, they're not even activating the clause which starts negotiations until after the next PM is appointed in October, and they're already saying it will take at least 2 years to negotiate (read: a lot longer than 2 years).

Long term, you are right, Ireland needs to build now to get the supply going. But that was the case anyway. Short term, there aren't going to be a bunch of London bankers buying the 3/4 beds just yet.

Michael D Not Higgins

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

That's a long term thing. Britain aren't leaving the EU tomorrow, they're not even activating the clause which starts negotiations until after the next PM is appointed in October, and they're already saying it will take at least 2 years to negotiate (read: a lot longer than 2 years).

2 years is the maximum. And once it's "known" that they're gone the investment will start here.

Long term, you are right, Ireland needs to build now to get the supply going. But that was the case anyway. Short term, there aren't going to be a bunch of London bankers buying the 3/4 beds just yet.

It's not Londoners I'd be worried about. Also, even if it takes the maximum 2 years and 3 months to do it, how many places can we get through planning permission, design, construction, sign-off etc. before then? Assuming investors sit on their hands until the deal is completely done of course.

handlemaster

EU are saying exit should start now... You have voted

Michael D Not Higgins

Deleted User wrote: »

2 years is the maximum. And once it's "known" that they're gone the investment will start here.


It's not Londoners I'd be worried about. Also, even if it takes the maximum 2 years and 3 months to do it, how many places can we get through planning permission, design, construction, sign-off etc. before then? Assuming investors sit on their hands until the deal is completely done of course.

2 years is not the maximum. They've never done it before and no one knows how long it will take. I've already seen politicians trying to give 2020 as the target.

L1011

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

2 years is not the maximum. They've never done it before and no one knows how long it will take. I've already seen politicians trying to give 2020 as the target.

Under the procedures, 2 years is the maximum from the Article 50 request; unless they can get the Commissions unanimous support for an extension. Realistically that would be very hard to obtain.

intheclouds

There could be an impact on property prices here.

Its completely uncharted territory and given how linked we are with the UK, our economy could destabilise in unforseen ways.

Share prices in BOI and PTSB have already plummeted.

Michael D Not Higgins

L1011 wrote: »

Under the procedures, 2 years is the maximum from the Article 50 request; unless they can get the Commissions unanimous support for an extension. Realistically that would be very hard to obtain.

I understand that's the target from the Lisbon Treaty after activating Article 50, but they already know it's going to take longer. The EU may be putting pressure to activate Article 50 but they won't until they know they can finish in 2 years.

All this aside, the impact for the property market is minor for the immediate future. Calling up BOI share prices is a bit of a red herring. They lost 6c overnight. BOI shares lost €18 in 2008.

intheclouds

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

All this aside, the impact for the property market is minor for the immediate future. Calling up BOI share prices is a bit of a red herring. They lost 6c overnight. BOI shares lost €18 in 2008.

Cant agree with that. Its the percentage drop thats more relevant than the absolute value and they have lost about 25% of their value.

Nevertheless, I was simply using them as an example, the point I was making is that we may see negative impacts on our economy from unforeseen events and currently theres not really any guarantees of anything!

If the UK push themselves into a recession as a result of Brexit, that will certainly have an impact on the Irish economy due to the sheer number of mutual trade links.

GavMan

L1011 wrote: »

Under the procedures, 2 years is the maximum from the Article 50 request; unless they can get the Commissions unanimous support for an extension. Realistically that would be very hard to obtain.

2 years from when 50 is invoked.

Referendum result doesn't put any timeline when that invocation must happen.

athtrasna

GavMan wrote: »

2 years from when 50 is invoked.

Referendum result doesn't put any timeline when that invocation must happen.

It mustn't. Referendum isn't legally binding, just advisory.

I still don't think it's going to affect property here, a deal will be done between Ireland and what's left of the UK.

utmbuilder

Bank of Ireland shares dropped 25% today. The US is yet to wake up. PTSB 14%, KBC . AIB around 10%

Experts are saying house prices in the UK more certainly will drop.

This sure will have some effect on the housing market here, however I am not quite sure what.

testaccount123

athtrasna wrote: »

It mustn't. Referendum isn't legally binding, just advisory.

I still don't think it's going to affect property here, a deal will be done between Ireland and what's left of the UK.

Ireland cant negotiate its own deals with the UK, we are in the EU

athtrasna

athtrasna wrote: »

It mustn't. Referendum isn't legally binding, just advisory.

I still don't think it's going to affect property here, a deal will be done between Ireland and what's left of the UK.

Even if we could make a deal with us and the UK (we can't), what exactly would be in it to stop property here being affected?

There's all the unknowns of GDP effect on the UK and how that'll affect our banks and our growth. How exactly to mitigate that goes beyond striking a "deal" with Britain.

Ush1

Can't wait for my 3 bed semi in Tallaght to be worth millions...

newacc2015

utmbuilder wrote: »

Bank of Ireland shares dropped 25% today. The US is yet to wake up. PTSB 14%, KBC . AIB around 10%

Experts are saying house prices in the UK more certainly will drop.

This sure will have some effect on the housing market here, however I am not quite sure what.

BOI has a large UK presence. It would be anything other than usual for them to have a sharp decline in their share price with today's news. Their share price at closing is still higher than a lot of last week's. The volume traded was massive, so I wouldnt be surprised if an American fund brought a massive amount of them. The likes of George Saros was looking for bargains today. He was a fan of Irish shares in the past

PTSB is trying to sell their UK loan book. Brexit will obviously create headaches for them

AIB is a PLC just in name. The state owns the whole thing pretty much and anyone buying their free floating shares need to have their head examined

Ireland will benefit from more FDI. All the state agencies have been mute on Brexit. I imagine that is not the case behind close doors. I imagine all the state agencies have been selling Dublin as the new 'city' to American banks. Morgan Stanley are considering moving to Dublin. Credit Suisse has already moved some operations from London to Dublin.

athtrasna

Mod note A reminder that this is Accommodation and Property. Boards has politics fora, banking fora, economics fora... please think before you post. Plenty of places to discuss all aspects of Brexit, this one is supposed to be about Dublin property.

Thanks

Wesser

So could the house prices drop?
If Brexit induces a recession in Ireland could house prices drop?

athtrasna

Wesser wrote: »

So could the house prices drop?
If Brexit induces a recession in Ireland could house prices drop?

They could, but not very likely. Demand exceeds supply to such a massive extent at the moment it's unlikely. Also with US multinationals relocating here from the UK as we'll be the only English speaking EU country, demand will increase.

Recession is fairly unlikely too but that's beyond the remit of this forum.

intheclouds

On Newstalk earlier one of the speakers said that Brexit would probably cause a big pause in big business or financial decisions in Ireland for a while and that people thinking of buying a property now will (and should) hold back to see what happens. The uncertainty could cause the market to stagnate and drop the prices.

Q&A

intheclouds wrote: »

On Newstalk earlier one of the speakers said that Brexit would probably cause a big pause in big business or financial decisions in Ireland for a while and that people thinking of buying a property now will (and should) hold back to see what happens. The uncertainty could cause the market to stagnate and drop the prices.

The question you have to ask is will demand in Ireland fall. In my mind no. Firstly people here need a place to live and in balance Ireland should do well in terms of 'BRout'. Regardless of the latter supply - in Dublin - is so low it should no be a factor.

Out put another way I can't see where all the investment in Ireland will dry up.

Throw in the central bank rules and you should have a pretty resilient market...


Ask yourself can you see people being less well off. If not then not an issue for the property market here

Atlantic Dawn

UK property is more likely to be in demand as they can with Brexit relax the regulations behind money laundering legislation and mortgage rules as they won't be restricted to EU membership rules.

intheclouds

Q&A wrote: »

The question you have to ask is will demand in Ireland fall. In my mind no.

I think demand may fall initially as people hang back and wait to see what happens.

Villa05

Wesser wrote:

So could the house prices drop? If Brexit induces a recession in Ireland could house prices drop?

Eu appear to be going down the messy divorce route to deter other countries from leaving. Thats bad news for Ireland as UK is our biggest trading partner.

Our incompetence at providing housing for our citizens will deter multinationals from coming here.

A slow down in the UK will without doubt negatively effect Ireland. A recession is inevitable in my opinion

Domino effect of countries wishing to leave the eu will bring it's existence under threat

Our national debt is massive and only kept sustainable by European Central Bank money printing and bond buying program. What happens if the EU fails

All of these potential issues will negatively effect house prices

Dr Strange

I think with the possible relocation of multi-nationals and their services to Ireland as the only English-speaking country in the EU we will see house prices go further up.

4ensic15

A large proportion of house purchases are cash transactions (no mortgage). in times of uncertainty people with cash hold onto it. Furthermore in times of uncertainty the banks do not lend. A crash is on the way.

Bob24

Dr Strange wrote: »

I think with the possible relocation of multi-nationals and their services to Ireland as the only English-speaking country in the EU we will see house prices go further up.

4ensic15 wrote: »

A large proportion of house purchases are cash transactions (no mortgage). in times of uncertainty people with cash hold onto it. Furthermore in times of uncertainty the banks do not lend. A crash is on the way.

Both those points are valid. The question is which me will have the strongest influence.

In my view the second one will prevail initially but after some time am assuming the doomsday predictions we were served in the media about Brexit were scaremongering (I personally think they were), the first one will kick in and make Ireland housing problem even worse.