The suckler cow, the Friesian bull and 2017.

Bass Reeves

In both the FJ and the FI this week we have got warning in the beef sector about what will happen from late 2016 on. It may well be 2017 before we see this glut of cattle arriving as figure show that as of the 1stMay 24-36 month cattle are down compared to 2015 by about 60K. However a strong dairy cow kill at the end of this year could drag prices down sooner.

However in 2017 we will see aboyt 200K extra cattle compared to this year. Along with the competition of Polish beef dragging down the price are we looking at a base price of 3.5/kg next year or lower. However the sting may be worse for out of spec cattle. It may well be that out of spec cattle will get really penalized next year. What will in the processors opinion be out of spec cattle. More than likly cattle killing over 400kgs DW( and maybe as low as 380kgs) cattle grading P and cattle that are outside the fat spec. The other cattle taht may be hit really hard are bulls.

The P grading cattle will be dairy bred stock however the real losers may be suckler bred stock. already in last Tuesday FI a warning was issue by an ABP director. A 40-70c/kg is equivlent to a loss of 130-230 euro/animal on a 330 kg carcass. However if maybe a 50kg reduction in carcass is also factored in this may increase the loss in margin by 200/animal . So this could see finished Contenintal cattle grossing maybe 3-400/head less in the fatory's. This will impact all the way back on stores and weanlings next year and maybe before that.

There is talk about export markets but it is hard to see them making up for that loss. Export markets only thrive when they can source cheap cattle you never see them when prices are strong so in a way they are of little addition to the market. Will 2017 see a reduction in suckler cow numbers as processors discrimate against there prodgney . With friesians we may well see a lot being exported at sub 100/head. However what will happen to extreme FR and JEX cross calves. Will we see disposal at birth maybe not nsxt year but in 2018.

Milked out

Perhaps two things to.add to that is that next year will see a lot of aax and hex along with maybe extra bbx calves coming from the dairy herd, so while some fr calves may be exported if they stay down in price I'd see more calves from dairy herd staying in country. Also given the amount of Jersey straws used is still fairly low will those extreme calves be much of an issue? Neighbour sells them at 2 to 4 weeks old for between 5 and 25 euro depending on year, calf etc but those calves must not have received any antibiotic treatment. I know numbers may be growing but I rarely see them about the place after

_Brian

When your producing a product for an oversupplied market this is the likely result.
Didn't the poll on the future of beef show a significant % looking to increase production further ??