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Tuesday May 10: stage 4 – Catanzaro - Praia a Mare
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09-05-2016 4:14pm#1After 3 days of pan flat sprinting and timetrailing, the Giro finally enters Italia! This 200km long stage, from Catanzaro to Praia a Mare, throws in the first significant climbs in the race, and should be a far more tactically interesting affair. After 120km the rider will tackle the category 3 Bonifati climb, a 6km long ramp with an average gradient of 6%, a max of 9%. At 145km, we hit the San Pietro climb. It’s shorter than the last climb by 1km, but it’s steeper too, maxing out a 11%. That’s not all; there are 3 more short ramps before we hit the finish; including the uncategorised Via del Fortino climb with 10km. Only 2km in length, it peaks at a leg breaking 18%, and will give the big men something to worry about so close to the finish. This gives way to a wide descent (with two tunnels) and a nice flat finish for the last 5km.
Contenders
I’m not really sure where to start here, as there are no real out and out favourites like there were in the first three stages. This could be one for the punchers, and I’ll look at some of them first. Tim Wellens is a man who has shown great form on short steep climbs this year, attacking early in both Amstel Gold and La Fleche Wallone. The Via Del Fortino climb could be a perfect launch pad for him to solo away, and he certainly could hold the peloton on the descent and the 5k of flat into the finish.
There are two Italians who I like for this finish, the first being Sonny Colbrelli. A rider who usually chalk up domestic wins for his Italian Bardiani team, Colbrelli came into the big time in this year's Amstel Gold race, winning the bunch sprint for third. He’s a strong sprinter, but as his Amstel performance showed, he can tackle the hills too. Enrico Battaglin is another I like. Formerly of Bardiani, he now rides for Lotto Jumbo NL, this puncher-sprinter will give his team an option on the lumpy stages. A two-time Giro stage winner in the past, he could make it a hat-trick on Monday. It’s also the kind of stage we have seen our own Nico Roche attack on; if let off the leash he could fancy his chances. Another favourite must be Alejandro Valverde, a rider who can attack on the climbs or win in a reduced sprint.
Of course it would be wrong to count out the pure fast men too, I just didn’t fancy writing much about them after they stole the show for the previous two days. Kittel has improved his climbing this year, he won a tough stage in Romandie, so could figure at the finish. The usual suspects of Modolo, Nizzolo, Ewan, Greipel, and Pelucchi could all make an appearance. Another name I’ll throw into the hat is Alexey Tsatevich of Katusha, another fast man with good climbing skill.
Prediction
I desperately hope we get something other than a bunch kick, as this parcours could make for a seriously exciting race. I’m going to hedge my bets, and pick a winner for both potential scenarios. I’m taking Colbrelli in a sprint, and Wellens for a long range attack.
Random Trivia
Finishing town Praia a Mare is home to an archaeological site, where findings have included a prehistoric shark.21
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Think this was more for Sundays stage but when you cant use your race footage youve got to compromise
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The steep climb at 10 km from the end suits Nico but like we saw in Yorkshire a flat finish does not
He'd have to get away with someone who is as bad a sprinter as himself or attack out of a group with 2 km to go...this i kinda the same for Dumoulin & Chaves , etc who can also do these climbs well ...I think they will keep their powder dry for harder climbing finishes
There are so many possibilities for this stage as there could be cross winds and with a reduced group anything can happen
I guess its who wants it the most ...Mosser is a good bet to win stage & go into Pink...would send the Italians wild given his parentage
Ullissi is also a good bet And another man not mentioned is Zakarin
Anything can and will happpen
Didn't do too bad on the predictions even if I blow my own trumpet
Thought Nico , Chaves & Dumoulin would do well on the climb not feature in finish sprint ...but I guess there was a reduced peloton ...will watch now
Delighted Nico is such good form...would love a stage win0 -
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbujgRJq5cM
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