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Am I betting too conservatively?

  • 31-03-2016 10:56pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 5,633 ✭✭✭ Danger781
    Registered User


    I always had a habit of doing stupid bets and losing money, then having to slowly build my balance back up. To counteract this I have been working on a 5% / 10% / 20% idea of small / medium / large bets. Sometimes I will go higher if I am very confident.



    Here is my timeline of the last 3 days:
    Starting balance: €34.23

    Bet #1: €6 @ 1.3 = +€1.80
    Bet #2: €3 @ 1.25 = +€0.75
    Bet #3: €1.50 @ 1.38 = -€1.50
    Bet #4: €3 @ 1.78 = +€2.34
    Bet #5: €6 @ 1.17 = +€1.02
    Bet #6: €22.50 @ 1.1 = +€2.25
    Bet #7: €1.75 @ 1.5 = -€1.75
    Balance 29/03: €39.14

    Bet #1: €2 @ 1.66 = -€2.00
    Bet #2: €3.50 @ 1.37 = +€1.30
    Bet #3: €38 @ 1.04 = +€1.52
    Bet #4: €2 @ 2.92 = +€3.84
    Bet #5: €8 @ 1.28 = +€2.24
    Bet #6: €4 @ 1.52 = +€2.08
    Balance: 30/03: €48.12

    Bet #1: €18 @ 1.17 = +€3.06
    Bet #2: €5 @ 1.66 = -€5.00
    Bet #3: €4.60 @ 1.84 = In Progress
    Bet #4: €1.50 @ 2.57 = In Progress

    Am I being too conservative here? I feel like after this many wins (9/13) I should have a lot more profits but at the moment I'm only +€6 if these two bets don't come. If they do I am on €52.30 or so which is +€18 overall.


Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 978 ✭✭✭ Saint Sonner
    Registered User


    7 bets a day seems excessive?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,633 ✭✭✭ Danger781
    Registered User


    7 bets a day seems excessive?

    Probably should have explained - I'm betting on eSports at the moment as there is a "Counter Strike: Global Offensive" major on at the moment so there is loads of games each day happening one at a time. I'm watching and betting on nearly all of them.

    Arguably excessive, but it is toning down now with less games happening as the major progresses. Quarter finals happening tomorrow so only 4 games.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,633 ✭✭✭ Danger781
    Registered User


    On that note I was moreso referring to the bet amounts rather than number of bets. Also my last two bets came in so I am up to €52.


  • Registered Users Posts: 978 ✭✭✭ Saint Sonner
    Registered User


    I often find that the risk is based on what you can afford.

    I tried the €20 to €1000 challenge by backing one or two teams a day in various sports at odds between 1.2-1.3. I got to €700 and lost it all.

    Whilst it hurt I could still argue with myself that I had only in fact lost €20 for 10 days of good craic.

    So I'm in favour of betting conservatively as long as the person can afford it! Good Luck


  • Registered Users Posts: 882 moneymad
    Registered User


    Danger781 wrote: »
    I always had a habit of doing stupid bets and losing money, then having to slowly build my balance back up. To counteract this I have been working on a 5% / 10% / 20% idea of small / medium / large bets. Sometimes I will go higher if I am very confident.



    Here is my timeline of the last 3 days:
    Starting balance: €34.23

    Bet #1: €6 @ 1.3 = +€1.80
    Bet #2: €3 @ 1.25 = +€0.75
    Bet #3: €1.50 @ 1.38 = -€1.50
    Bet #4: €3 @ 1.78 = +€2.34
    Bet #5: €6 @ 1.17 = +€1.02
    Bet #6: €22.50 @ 1.1 = +€2.25
    Bet #7: €1.75 @ 1.5 = -€1.75
    Balance 29/03: €39.14

    Bet #1: €2 @ 1.66 = -€2.00
    Bet #2: €3.50 @ 1.37 = +€1.30
    Bet #3: €38 @ 1.04 = +€1.52
    Bet #4: €2 @ 2.92 = +€3.84
    Bet #5: €8 @ 1.28 = +€2.24
    Bet #6: €4 @ 1.52 = +€2.08
    Balance: 30/03: €48.12

    Bet #1: €18 @ 1.17 = +€3.06
    Bet #2: €5 @ 1.66 = -€5.00
    Bet #3: €4.60 @ 1.84 = In Progress
    Bet #4: €1.50 @ 2.57 = In Progress

    Am I being too conservative here? I feel like after this many wins (9/13) I should have a lot more profits but at the moment I'm only +€6 if these two bets don't come. If they do I am on €52.30 or so which is +€18 overall.
    HI,

    I've noticed you risk your whole account on 1.10, they don't always come in.
    For the 1.10, you should be laying, for the evens or more odds you should risk more.
    Just because something is 1.10 doesn't mean it's correct, over the long run you'll lose money.

    How do you feel when you bet €28 on 1.10 as opposed to €1.50 on 1.65?
    You're doing quite well with your approach though, so see how it goes over the next few months.
    Goodluck.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,745 ✭✭✭ diomed


    Bet #3: €38 @ 1.04 = +€1.52

    Bad bet imo.
    I prefer big odds. Seriously, every bet is about odds and chance.
    Was that a 1.03 chance being offered at 1.04 odds?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,044 ✭✭✭✭ Collie D
    Registered User


    moneymad wrote: »
    HI,

    I've noticed you risk your whole account on 1.10, they don't always come in.
    For the 1.10, you should be laying, for the evens or more odds you should risk more.
    Just because something is 1.10 doesn't mean it's correct, over the long run you'll lose money.

    How do you feel when you bet €28 on 1.10 as opposed to €1.50 on 1.65?
    You're doing quite well with your approach though, so see how it goes over the next few months.
    Goodluck.

    Not necessarily. Can't definitively say unless we know what the bet was.

    I agree short odds don't necessarily mean certainty but not always bad prices either. For example, a football team 3-0 up with ten minutes to go would be a great price at 1.04. A team 1-0 up against run of play away from home and a man down at evens at halftime less so.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,426 Neon_Lights
    Registered User


    I think putting a significant portion of his bankroll on a single independent event is what will kill him in the end. Like that 38 quid bet is insane with a 48 quid bankroll


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,666 ✭✭✭ Howjoe1


    I think putting a significant portion of his bankroll on a single independent event is what will kill him in the end. Like that 38 quid bet is insane with a 48 quid bankroll

    Agree. But if you start with a relatively small bankroll, is it possible to build up a decent amount without going all in on single bets in the initial stages?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,426 Neon_Lights
    Registered User


    Howjoe1 wrote: »
    Agree. But if you start with a relatively small bankroll, is it possible to build up a decent amount without going all in on single bets in the initial stages?

    On an exchange yes by using a laying strategy would be one way


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,666 ✭✭✭ Howjoe1


    On an exchange yes by using a laying strategy would be one way

    laying lots of odds on shots?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,426 Neon_Lights
    Registered User


    Howjoe1 wrote: »
    laying lots of odds on shots?

    Closely matched tennis matches are quite good as they are volatile to price movements. if you dont get greedy you can lock in some nice profits when greening out.

    It all depends on what youre familiar with and what to bet on. Just google "bet trading laying strategy" and theres tons of videos and resources on there on what to look out for in each market.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,666 ✭✭✭ Howjoe1


    Commission rates of 5% are quite high on Betfair. Are Betdaq worth a go or is their too little fluidity in their markets?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,633 ✭✭✭ Danger781
    Registered User


    diomed wrote: »
    Bet #3: €38 @ 1.04 = +€1.52

    Bad bet imo.
    I prefer big odds. Seriously, every bet is about odds and chance.
    Was that a 1.03 chance being offered at 1.04 odds?

    It was the reigning champions, the best CSGO team in the world undoubtedly, against a team that only qualified for the major because another team had visa problems. That was about as 0 risk as it goes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,634 ✭✭✭ donegal.
    Registered User


    what website are you following the competition on ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,426 Neon_Lights
    Registered User


    Danger781 wrote: »
    It was the reigning champions, the best CSGO team in the world undoubtedly, against a team that only qualified for the major because another team had visa problems. That was about as 0 risk as it goes.

    I'm just saying its poor bankroll management, there have been major surprises in esports too btw. Plus wasn't there a controversy last year where a number of major teams were caught cheating


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,633 ✭✭✭ Danger781
    Registered User


    donegal. wrote: »
    what website are you following the competition on ?

    Watching on Twitch, or in-game via GOTV.

    Betting on fanobet. Great site so far. Live betting and the ability to bet on other sports. I've managed to double my bankroll to $68 from the initial $34. Have $7 / 10% on the final today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 37,392 ✭✭✭✭ Mellor
    Registered User


    Betting up to 20% of your bank roll isn't particularly conservative tbh.


  • Registered Users Posts: 37,392 ✭✭✭✭ Mellor
    Registered User


    diomed wrote: »
    Bet #3: €38 @ 1.04 = +€1.52

    Bad bet imo.
    I prefer big odds. Seriously, every bet is about odds and chance.
    Was that a 1.03 chance being offered at 1.04 odds?
    How can you say it's a bad bet. Then in the same post say it's about odds and chance. One statement contradicts the other.

    Without knowing what the bet was, we can't say whether it's a good or bad bet.
    Could have been a 1.01 shot for all we know.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,745 ✭✭✭ diomed


    Mellor wrote: »
    How can you say it's a bad bet. Then in the same post say it's about odds and chance. One statement contradicts the other.

    Without knowing what the bet was, we can't say whether it's a good or bad bet.
    Could have been a 1.01 shot for all we know.
    That is it. We don't know. He didn't give any reason for his bets. It could have been a 500/1 chance trading at 1.04.
    I asked him was it a 1.03 chance. Obviously a 1.02 or 1.01 chance would also justify the bet.
    He asked about his betting, but gave no information why he made the bets. I tried to find out if the bets were value. Why did he make the bets?
    Risking most of a betting bank without a reason, or because it is a very low price and others think it a good chance, would not appeal to me.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 37,392 ✭✭✭✭ Mellor
    Registered User


    diomed wrote: »
    That is it. We don't know. He didn't give any reason for his bets. It could have been a 500/1 chance trading at 1.04.
    I asked him was it a 1.03 chance. Obviously a 1.02 or 1.01 chance would also justify the bet.
    THat's my point, you mentioned the idea of value.

    And contradicted it by stated that it was a bad bet.
    diomed wrote: »
    Bad bet imo

    There's not enough info to say anything either way. But the trend on this forum is to evaluate everything by price.
    Posts suggesting <1.10 should be lay bets, and risking more on longer odds >2.0, makes absolutely zero sense.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,745 ✭✭✭ diomed


    My posts are full of contradictions. I don't know what I am talking about.


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