Football League Division 1 Permutations

DDC1990

So with the penultimate rounds of the league approaching over Easter, and all but two teams in danger of dropping down, how do people see the final few games panning out?

I have:

Dublin v Donegal - Dublin
Cork v Down - Cork
Kerry v Monaghan - Monaghan
Mayo v Roscommon - Mayo

Monaghan v Donegal - Donegal
Roscommon v Dublin - Dublin
Kerry v Cork - Kerry
Mayo v Down – Mayo

Dublin – 14
Roscommon – 8
Kerry 8
Donegal -8
Monaghan – 6
Cork – 6
Mayo – 6
Down - 0

However, with Monaghan bringing Donegal to Castleblayney, they could easily beat Donegal. Likewise if Kerry are in the mood they could beat Monaghan in Clones. Cork if threatened by relegation could go out and hammer Kerry in Tralee (again) to stay up. So many permutations! How do you all see it finishing up?

If it finishes up like I predict, the Semi Finals will see:
Dublin v Donegal
Roscommon v Kerry

In the relegation battle, I see Cork beating Down by more than Mayo can, so that might be enough to save them, though in my scenario Mayo will have to win both games. I'd imagine a 1 or 2 point win over Roscommon before winning by 10 or so vs Down.
Cork will most likely beat Down by 15/16 points, before losing to Kerry by 1 or 2. Monaghan's superior points difference will keep them safe I'd imagine.

Exciting stuff.

Fr Tod Umptious

A lot of this is hope rather than anything else.

Round 6
Kerry are in the mood
Monaghan v Kerry - Kerry.
Cork relegate Down
Dublin beat Donegal.
Roscommon beat Mayo and lose the plot thinking they have them relegated.

Round 7
Donegal need to make sure so go out and beat Monaghan.
Cork and Kerry is just a kick about.
Roscommon and Dublin the same.
Mayo beat Down.

Monaghan and Down relegated, Monaghan via the head to head v Mayo.

Rossies in the SF but portions of their fanbase sickened that Mayo survive.

DDC1990

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

A lot of this is hope rather than anything else.

Round 6
Kerry are in the mood
Monaghan v Kerry - Kerry.
Cork relegate Down
Dublin beat Donegal.
Roscommon beat Mayo and lose the plot thinking they have them relegated.

Round 7
Donegal need to make sure so go out and beat Monaghan.
Cork and Kerry is just a kick about.
Roscommon and Dublin the same.
Mayo beat Down.

Monaghan and Down relegated, Monaghan via the head to head v Mayo.

Rossies in the SF but portions of their fanbase sickened that Mayo survive.

If Mayo lose to Roscommon, then Donegal are safe (on 6 points), so they'll throw a nothing team out v Monaghan. They won't be pushed about a Semi-Final with Ulster Championship looming.

Same permutations, with Mayo beating Roscommon (need it more, Rossies are safe). Seems fairly possible.

Boom__Boom

Current Paddypower odds

NFL DIVISION 1 2016 Saturday 26th March 2016, 19:00
To be Relegated
Mayo 4/6
Monaghan 2/1
Cork 7/1
Donegal 14/1
Kerry 25/1

While Kerry and Donegal mathematically can get relegated, it would require freak conditions for either to go down, especially given the score differences.

Cork (assuming they beat Down) would have to be seriously unluckly to get relegated, so like the bookies say I think it's between Mayo and Monaghan - Mayo do have a game against Down, which they will surely win. The Mayo Rossies game will be key for Mayo. Monaghan have 2 home games but they are against Kerry and Donegal both who are in the technically could get relegated, but really will be looking more at the semi-final stages. What Mayo do have is that if both themselves and Monaghan end up on 4 points , Mayo won the head-to-head. The thing is that Monaghan really haven't been going all that well - they got a very soft late sucker-punch goal to beat Roscommon, only beat Down by 2 points and were poor enough against Cork yesterday and while they ran Dublin close but it definitely wasn't a top drawer performance by Dublin. At the moment gun to the head I think Monaghan will go down.

Fr Tod Umptious

DDC1990 wrote: »

If Mayo lose to Roscommon, then Donegal are safe (on 6 points), so they'll throw a nothing team out v Monaghan. They won't be pushed about a Semi-Final with Ulster Championship looming.

Same permutations, with Mayo beating Roscommon (need it more, Rossies are safe). Seems fairly possible.

So Mayo beating Roscommon and Down, Monaghan losing to Kerry and beating Donegal, and Donegal losing to Dublin and Monaghan, Cork beating Down and losing to Keery would leave all 4 on 6.
Donegal are +19 right now, Monaghan -4, Mayo -16 and Cork -16
So Mayo would have to beat Roscommon and Down by more than Corks combined score average in a win v Down and a loss v Kerry

Edit: - The above 4 way tie also determines the 4th place and final playoff spot
So Donegal are obviously in the driving seat but both Mayo and Cork have yet to play Down and there may be potential to claw back some of that 35 point difference !!!

ProudDUB

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

A lot of this is hope rather than anything else.

Round 6
Kerry are in the mood
Monaghan v Kerry - Kerry.
Cork relegate Down
Dublin beat Donegal.
Roscommon beat Mayo and lose the plot thinking they have them relegated.

Round 7
Donegal need to make sure so go out and beat Monaghan.
Cork and Kerry is just a kick about.
Roscommon and Dublin the same.
Mayo beat Down.

Monaghan and Down relegated, Monaghan via the head to head v Mayo.

Rossies in the SF but portions of their fanbase sickened that Mayo survive.

Portions, portions ???? :eek::eek::eek:

I'm going to go for Monaghan to get relegated along with Down. Having to play Kerry (who are starting to motor) and Donegal, is the hardest road to have to go down to avoid relegation.

No idea how the semi finals will plan out. Dublin, Roscommnon, Donegal and then one of Kerry or Mayo or Cork.

Syferus

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

A lot of this is hope rather than anything else.

Round 6
Kerry are in the mood
Monaghan v Kerry - Kerry.
Cork relegate Down
Dublin beat Donegal.
Roscommon beat Mayo and lose the plot thinking they have them relegated.

Round 7
Donegal need to make sure so go out and beat Monaghan.
Cork and Kerry is just a kick about.
Roscommon and Dublin the same.
Mayo beat Down.

Monaghan and Down relegated, Monaghan via the head to head v Mayo.

Rossies in the SF but portions of their fanbase sickened that Mayo survive.

There's a ton of more interesting things occupying Roscommon's football heads these days than Mayo's flailing about. If we beat ye it will be sweet because it means we'll have won five in a row and you're likely to go down but if you really think anyone in Roscommon will be thinking of anything but Dublin and the championship come the next Tuesday you've really lost all bearings.

Fr Tod Umptious

Down lead Cork byba point at HT, 4 to 3, a loss for Cork would put them under some pressure if Mayo and Monaghan were also to win.

Fr Tod Umptious

Cork win 12 7 in the end, putting them on 6 with a points diff of -11

ArnoldJRimmer

So Donegal and Cork have six points, Mayo and Monaghan both have four. I think the points difference is as follows:

Donegal +13
Cork -11
Monaghan -13
Mayo -12

So barring a cataclysmic performance next Sunday, Donegal should be safe.

Mayo should beat Down, its all about how much they boost their points difference. If Monaghan beat Donegal, this could be crucial

Cork in the meantime have to go to Tralee. If Monaghan and Mayo both win, and Cork lose, then they're gone. Not an unrealistic scenario by any means.

DDC1990

Next week I have:

Roscommon v Dublin - (Dublin to struggle to kick with Wellies on in the Hyde - Roscommon by 3)
Mayo v Down - (Mayo to kick on and score an 8+ point victory)
Monaghan v Donegal - (Both sides seem to be on their Ulster Championship training schedule. Monaghan with more to play for to eke out a 1-3 point victory in a low scoring dour defensive battle- with neither side giving anything away before a potential Ulster SF clash)
Kerry v Cork - (Kerry are on a roll recently. Fitzmaurice seems to want to go and win the league. Best preparation here would be to beat Cork. Cork have more to play for. If Cork lose and the rest of the results land the way I have predicted, then Cork go down. Potentially a draw to keep both sides happy).

Semi Finals -
Dublin v Cork
Kerry v Roscommon

Relegated:
Monaghan and Down. (Monaghan, Donegal and Mayo all on 6 points, with Monaghan's points difference to send them down.)

Xenophile

DDC1990 wrote: »

Potentially a draw to keep both sides happy).

Semi Finals -
Dublin v Cork
Kerry v Roscommon

Relegated:
Monaghan and Down. (Monaghan, Donegal and Mayo all on 6 points, with Monaghan's points difference to send them down.)

I agree, but Cork and Kerry don't do happiness. Kerry to win.

Boom__Boom

Paddypower relegation odds

To be Relegated

Monaghan 4/5
Cork 15/8
Mayo 15/2

Depending on what sort of lineup Kerry and Donegal put outthere might be a bit of value in backing Cork to go down at those odds.

Xenophile

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Paddypower relegation odds

To be Relegated

Monaghan 4/5
Cork 15/8
Mayo 15/2

Depending on what sort of lineup Kerry and Donegal put outthere might be a bit of value in backing Cork to go down at those odds.

Kerry will put out their best team. The league has now become a stepping stone to Sam.

Boom__Boom

Xenophile wrote: »

Kerry will put out their best team. The league has now become a stepping stone to Sam.

The thing is that the way the standings are Kerry are pretty much assured a semi-final place even if they lose so I do think there is a possibility Kerry might experiment some bit.

Nidgeweasel

Can Donegal go down?

"I'm hugely confused Ted!"

ProudDUB

I don't think so. If you lose to Monaghan, you'll finish up on 6pts. But there is likely to be a bottleneck of several counties finishing on 6pts....yourselves, Monaghan and Mayo. You have the best scoring average by far. If you are down by 20 pts at halftime, I'd be sweatin' it, but I doubt if you will be.

Fr Tod Umptious

Nidgeweasel wrote: »

Can Donegal go down?

"I'm hugely confused Ted!"

They could in theory but it would be difficult for them to do so.

Now Donegal have a +13 points difference, Mayo and Monaghan have -12 each and Cork have -11

So in order for Donegal to go down.

Cork would have to win to go clear on 8 and into the SF.
Monaghan would have to beat Donegal by at least 13 and Mayo would have beat Down by at least 13.

That would put them.all on 6 points with points difference of Monaghan +1, Mayo +1, Donegal 0.
Donegal go down.

K-9

Monaghan's best hope is for Cork to lose and them to win by the looks of it, assuming Mayo do their bit.

Divisions 2 & 3 I've given up making any sense out of it.

Nidgeweasel

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

They could in theory but it would be difficult for them to do so.

Now Donegal have a +13 points difference, Mayo and Monaghan have -12 each and Cork have -11

So in order for Donegal to go down.

Cork would have to win to go clear on 8 and into the SF.
Monaghan would have to beat Donegal by at least 13 and Mayo would have beat Down by at least 13.

That would put them.all on 6 points with points difference of Monaghan +1, Mayo +1, Donegal 0.
Donegal go down.

Powers aren't offering a price. That'll do for me!

Fr Tod Umptious

So if I'm right its Dublin v Donegal and Roscommon v Kerry.

With Cork and Down relegated