Paris - Nice, March 12, Stage 6: Nice/La Madone d'Utelle *SPOILERS*

Melodeon

Date:Saturday 12th March
Type: Mountains
Distance: 177Km
Start/Finish: Nice/La Madone d'Utelle


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The General Classification after Stage 5:



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Waiting game will have to stop for the favourites

Michael Matthews faces the real test of his ability to win Paris-Nice in the 177-km sixth stage finishing at the top of La Madonne d'Utelle, the only summit finish in this 74th edition after the cancellation of the Mont Brouilly stage on Wednesday. The Australian showed some limits in the tricky climbs of stage 5, especially in terms of team support as he seemed rather isolated in the finale, with only Simon Yates left to help him out. The final climb, though 15-km long, is only 5.7 pc on average and does not seem extremely grueling. The most worrying fact for Bling is that none of the leading contenders for final victory have yet attempted anything. And it is doubtful that Richie Porte, Alberto Contador, Tom Dumoulin, Romain Bardet, Geraint Thomas or Rui Costa will wait for Sunday's final stage to make a move. These 15 km are more than likely to be the ones on which the race can be decided this season. Can Matthews keep his brilliant momentum on them? "I'm not going to say I can win Paris-Nice but I'm going to give it everything I have", he insisted. Whether it will be enough remains to be seen. In any case, his near-perfect week already earned him another green jersey in the Race to the Sun which he hopes to be more than a consolation prize.

DELAYED 'LIVE' TV:
Eurosport 2 - 3.30pm

HIGHLIGHTS:
Eurosport 2 - 9.25pm

MPFGLB

This is it ...the decider in my book
Pity it isn't live on Eurosport as could be a cracker

Contador is a firm favourite for me ...he will need to win but can it be enough to overcome Thomas & Porte

Then there is the question of Matthews ...will he hold on...
And then there is Dumoulin...can he climb like at the Vuelta

Well one high probability is Contador will win and get 10 seconds bonus

Then he needs to beat Thomas /Izagirre by >4 seconds ...>10 seconds if either are 2nd
Porte by > 2 seconds if Porte finishes second

And Dumoulin by > 9 seconds and by > 15 seconds if Dumoulin finishes second


SKY have a very good team with Henao looking particularly good on the climbs today

But Tinkoff have a very good climbing team too with Majka, Trofimov & Kiserloski ...



(of course if Matthews hangs on and comes in second Contador needs to beat him by 33 seconds or 27 seconds if Matthews not in the top 3)

When you write it down then Matthews has a good chance of holding yellow

And if Matthews comes in a half minute down he could get the yellow jersey back the next day

I think Contador will have to go for it and go as early as possible....he has no choice

Melodeon

Unless something particularly dramatic happens, I can't see Matthews losing the yellow.

I'm hoping Contador et al give it a good go, but I suspect he and the other big hitters are playing a longer game and aiming towards getting well prepared for the grand tours, so won't give this a full 100% do-or-die attempt.

07Lapierre

MPFGLB wrote: »

This is it ...the decider in my book
Pity it isn't live on Eurosport as could be a cracker

Contador is a firm favourite for me ...he will need to win but can it be enough to overcome Thomas & Porte

Then there is the question of Matthews ...will he hold on...
And then there is Dumoulin...can he climb like at the Vuelta

Well one high probability is Contador will win and get 10 seconds bonus

Then he needs to beat Thomas /Izagirre by >4 seconds ...>10 seconds if either are 2nd
Porte by > 2 seconds if Porte finishes second

And Dumoulin by > 9 seconds and by > 15 seconds if Dumoulin finishes second


SKY have a very good team with Henao looking particularly good on the climbs today

But Tinkoff have a very good climbing team too with Majka, Trofimov & Kiserloski ...



(of course if Matthews hangs on and comes in second Contador needs to beat him by 33 seconds or 27 seconds if Matthews not in the top 3)

When you write it down then Matthews has a good chance of holding yellow

And if Matthews comes in a half minute down he could get the yellow jersey back the next day

I think Contador will have to go for it and go as early as possible....he has no choice

Paris-Nice is being show live on the Eurosport app.

MPFGLB

Looks like Antoine Duchesne inthe break already today

MPFGLB

The Tinkoff team-mates of Alberto Contador keep leading the chase at the front of the peloton.

ednwireland

eurosport player stopped working on my lousy 2mb broadband this year jsut cant connect or stalls all the time

Inquitus

Henao was the MVP there today, made Thomas's life the easier of the big 3 as he had support most of the way up the climb. Majka did a great job for Bertie exploding the race, but did have to pull off with 7 or so km left to go. Richie clawed his way back well after being dropped by Bertie's biggest effort. Simon Jones rode really well but missed a trick not going with the big 3, he bridged well but as soon as he made contact the attacks kicked off putting paid to his chances.

It is possible that tomorrow's stage could prove decisive, but given the Col D'Eze is summited with its 15km descent still to ride to the end of the stage it's hard to see how Bertie can go away and stay away, not sure how technical the descent is.

MPFGLB

Is a pretty technical descent tomorrow...Contador will try no dount
And Henao was certainly great today for Thomas who cannot match Contador explosiveness and is a diesel

Good evidence for bringing Henao to the Tour ...without Porte, Froome & Thomas lack explosion on some climbs ...Of course depends on form and Heano staying the 3 weeks well which hasn't happened previously

Nicolas Roche did such a long turn today ...hopefully he can start showing some climbing form before the Tour


BTW who is Simon Jones..Inquitus ?

Inquitus

MPFGLB wrote: »

BTW who is Simon Jones..Inquitus ?

Simon Jones is an excellent bowler, he is also Simon Yates with a brain fart thrown in

Inquitus

MPFGLB wrote: »

Nicolas Roche did such a long turn today ...hopefully he can start showing some climbing form before the Tour

Aye it was remiss of me not to mention Roche, he did a huge amount of work for Thomas, especially on the penultimate climb, was an excellent ride and he looked good. He seems to be quite bulky at this point in the season, at Sky that's not accidental, I wonder do they have some plans for him in the Classics?

MPFGLB

Inquitus wrote: »

Aye it was remiss of me not to mention Roche, he did a huge amount of work for Thomas, especially on the penultimate climb, was an excellent ride and he looked good. He seems to be quite bulky at this point in the season, at Sky that's not accidental, I wonder do they have some plans for him in the Classics?

I don't think so ..what with Kwait & Henao & maybe Kennaugh

I think he is heavy as he had a very slow winter...what with getting married, long honeymoon and then 2 stints in hospital

Hope he loses the weight though as a shame to not be in shape esp in a team like SKY where otherwise all you end up doing is domesrique work.

We know what he can do when lighter and here is a good probability that if he doesn't lose it he won't be in the Tour